Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 12:40 PM   Moonset 12:33 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 655 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 15 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 655 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
breezy onshore flow will continue through tomorrow as an area of low pressure develops to our south and east. A cold front on Saturday will bring lighter onshore winds through early next week.

FXUS62 KILM 140011 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 811 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low pressure passes offshore on Friday. A mainly dry cold front will move through on Saturday followed by more high pressure which will bring seasonably warm and dry weather through the middle of next week.

UPDATE
No changes made to previous forecast. Light showers have remained far offshore, dissipating before nearing the coastline.
0z aviation discussion is below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Gusty onshore winds continue this afternoon along the coast where onshore flow is increasing due to a developing low well offshore.
The main impact these surface winds and their associated swell has been impacts to the surf zone. Strong longshore currents have been observed across portions of the area and a choppy surf zone has prompted some beaches to fly red flags as we head into a busy weekend.

Quieter conditions exist inland where less cloud cover this morning has allowed temperatures to approach 90 degrees. Drier air aloft has mixed down and dew points are in the low 60s and upper 50s. Extreme southeastern Georgetown county may see a shower late this afternoon where onshore convergence is developing into isolated showers over CHS's forecast area. Any showers that develop should be brief.

Quiet and mostly clear this evening. Winds become calm inland and shift slightly to the N/NE along the coast. Some lingering boundary layer moisture could lead to low clouds along the coast this evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid and upper 60s with the introduction of drier air late tonight.

Subsidence near the developing low will bring temperatures into the low to mid 90s on Friday. A tight gradient will produce northerly winds on Friday, some areas gusting to 20 mph before noon. Northerly flow will keep the sea breeze near the coast and allow 90s to creep into portions of our coastal communities. Surface convergence along the sea breeze could bring an isolated shower to our coastal areas during the afternoon, but chances remain low. As the low tracks eastward throughout the day, winds will weaken and the sea breeze will start to push onshore. The exiting low will bring a cold front through the area late Friday and Friday evening.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Strengthening surface low pressure will shift northeastward off the coast while the mid-level trough axis becomes nearly vertically aligned with this low. With a stronger shortwave embedded in the flow to our north expected to pick up this low and carry it away on Friday night and Saturday, a small window and subsequently low chance exists for it to develop subtropical characteristics. Thus, the National Hurricane Center maintains a low (20%) chance for formation.

Behind this low, a cold front is expected to slide down from the north on Saturday and stall near or just south of the forecast area on Saturday night. Slight-chance PoPs are carried for Saturday afternoon and evening as some hi-res guidance depicts shower and storm development along the front, which is possible with weak to moderate instability and weak to modest shear in place. However, with the region located on the backside of mid-level troughing, which will result in substantial subsidence and dry air above 700mb, it will be hard for anything that does develop to grow and sustain itself. Winds will turn northerly behind the front before settling on easterly as high pressure passing through New England takes control.

Above-normal temperatures are expected before the cold frontal passage. Morning lows on Saturday morning will be kept up by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Subsidence behind the strengthening and departing surface low will help to boost daytime highs on Saturday into the low-mid 90s, with heat indices peaking in the upper 90s to around 100F. Behind the cold front, slightly drier air should nudge in, bringing lows down at least a couple degrees in the Cape Fear area, with lows otherwise around 70F elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A persistent mid-level anticyclone is expected to dominate the long term period with its center shifting from the Southeast US on Sunday to the Northeast US by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure initially over New England will shift offshore and take up residence south of Nova Scotia through midweek. This setup will yield a mainly dry and seasonable pattern through much of the upcoming week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid-upper 60s amidst a generally easterly onshore flow. A coastal trough is progged to develop by Wednesday and become more prominent on Thursday, leading to shower and thunderstorm chances for coastal areas during the midweek timeframe and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Predominantly VFR through Friday. Onshore flow may bring few to scattered low stratus around 2kft to the coastal terminals through 6z before dry northerly flow takes over. Mostly clear Friday, with some diurnal cu around 5-7 kft primarily around the Cape Fear region. Surface winds turn northerly overnight. Low pressure passing offshore will turn light winds to northwesterly inland, while south-southeasterly sea breeze dominates coastal areas after 18z as temps reach into the 90s.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.

MARINE
Through Friday...
Easterly winds remain 15-20 knots between high pressure to our north and a developing low to our south. Onshore winds will gradually shift to the north this evening, becoming northerly or northeasterly by sunrise Friday. Winds on Friday morning remain elevated at around 15 knots with periodic gusts around 20 knots. As the area of low pressure moves farther offshore, winds will weaken throughout the day. By late afternoon, the sea breeze will overpower any synoptic wind, becoming southerly at 10-15 knots. Cross seas remain a concern overnight and early Friday. Southeast swells become the dominant wave group late Friday as winds weaken and turn southerly.

Friday night through Tuesday...
Strengthening low pressure off the coast of the Outer Banks on Friday night will continue moving away through Saturday. A cold front will drop southeastward on Saturday afternoon, but it will lose steam as it approaches the coast, causing a variable wind direction into Saturday evening before settling on easterly as high pressure to the north takes control. Winds are expected to stay sub-SCA with mostly 10-15 kts speeds expected, although some gusts in the 15-20 kt range are possible during each afternoon. Seas are forecast to remain elevated in the 2-4 ft range through the period. A southeast swell of 2-3 ft at 7 sec should dominate through Saturday night before subsiding to 1-2 ft while an easterly wind wave of 2-3 ft at 6 sec takes over from Sunday onward.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: Persistent easterly swells in the 2-4 ft range and onshore winds of 10-15 kts will yield an extended period of at least moderate rip current risk through this weekend and possibly into early next week, mainly for east- facing beaches.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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