NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 915 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Tstms with heavy rain have weakened to just spotty showers with no additional flood threat overnight.

- Areas of fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island may spread inland into adjacent portions of the eastern shore overnight.

A weak remnant frontal boundary has become nearly stationary near the coast this evening, and is progged to move back north as a (very weak) warm front later tonight before eventually washing out. Earlier this evening, we had some locally heavy rain (amounts in excess of 3-4" over NE NC up to just N of the border into the Dismal swamp), but the activity has weakened considerably since sunset with radar showing just a few spotty light showers remaining over the far S). Just a few light showers possible in far southern VA and NE NC overnight. Some fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island may spread inland to portions of the lower MD eastern shore and Accomack VA overnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy on average except mostly cloudy over the far S. Remaining warm and humid with lows in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 100-105F Monday.

- Dangerous heat indices in excess of 105F are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially inland.

Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a by Tue as a trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region late Mon into Tue. This will result in slight height rises over the FA with low- level southerly flow as today's front washes out to our north.
The height rises will be a bit more pronounced on Tuesday. As such, high temps will be back to the lower-mid 90s on Mon (and perhaps a degree or two warmer on Tuesday). CAMs continue to show the potential for isolated-scattered convection Monday aftn-early evening (mainly W of the Ches Bay), and will keep PoPs in the 30-50% range for these areas. Not expecting more than isolated storms on Mon near the immediate coast. With fairly strong sfc heating and the lack of deep-layer shear, these will be the typical summertime pulse storms that could produce localized heavy rain/gusty winds. Tuesday will feature less in the way of aftn/evening tstms with the rising heights (PoPs are no higher than 30%...highest along and west of I- 95).

With temps in the low-mid 90s both days (hottest inland), heat indices will be on the rise yet again. Max heat index values will generally be 100-105F on Monday with readings aoa 105F looking likely across interior portions of the FA on Tue. Therefore, Heat Advisories will likely be needed on Tue for a good part of the FA.
The remnants of Beryl track toward the Great Lakes on Wed with weak SW flow aloft over VA/NC in between Beryl and upper ridging offshore. Heights fall very slightly with temps similar to Tue along with isolated to widely scattered aftn/evening tstms (highest chances are in the Piedmont). Can't rule out heat headlines on Wed (especially inland) where max heat indices are forecast to be ~105F.
Lows in the low-mid 70s both nights.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The highest precipitation chances will be from late Thursday through Friday evening. While the threat for severe weather looks to be limited, locally heavy rainfall is possible late this week.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into srn Quebec by Friday with direct rainfall from the system remaining to the NW of the local area. PWs likely remain at or above 2.0" through the week, allowing for very humid conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave may track along the southwestern periphery of the offshore ridge before turning to the N and tracking across the local area late Thursday through Friday evening. As a result, scattered to numerous showers/tstms are expected Thu aftn and evening, with showers and a few tstms likely continuing Thu night and through much of Fri/Fri evening before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the shortwave exits the area. More typical diurnally driven tstms are expected next weekend. While there likely won't be as much of a severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week, especially Thursday through Friday evening. Have likely PoPs for Thu/Fri with slight chance to chance PoPs next weekend.

Highs Thu in the upper 80s-lower 90s, dropping to the 85-90F range for Fri-Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR with showers diminishing in coverage this evening. Patchy fog is possible on the MD Eastern Shore early Mon AM. The dense fog most likely stays east of SBY, but did include a few hrs worth with high end IFR VSBYs early Monday. Also have included some MVFR CIGs at ORF/ECG early Monday morning. Any lower CIGs will quickly scatter out Monday AM giving way to SCT cumulus during the latter part of the day and isolated to widely scattered tstms during the aftn/evening.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/tstms (mainly during the afternoon/evening timeframe).

MARINE
As of 910 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect overnight for ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1 NM.

- Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected through midweek.

Taking a look at are cameras from Ocean City showing reduced vsbys, and with guidance hitting the low vsbys hard overnight, have issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 7 AM EDT Monday from Fenwick to Parramore.

Late this aftn, a weak cold front was stalled just south of the VA/NC border. Winds were generally N-E 5-10 kt north of the front, while winds were SW 5-10 kt south of the front. Seas were 2-3 ft and waves were 1-2 ft.

The front will move back north as a warm front late this evening- tonight, before eventually washing out. Predominately sub-SCA S or SE winds are expected tonight through Wed, generally 5-15 kt.
A little stronger S winds will be possible Wed night through Thu night, and could result in at least marginal SCA conditions over portions of the waters.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches into this evening, with a low risk south. There is a low rip current risk for all beaches on Mon.

CLIMATE
RIC has had a low of 79F so far today (7/7). Today's record high min is 78 in 1900, so if the temperature does not fall below 78 through 1 AM EDT (12 AM LST), an RER will be sent.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.