Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 6:04 PM

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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 841 Am Pdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - Light and variable winds, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tonight - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Independence day - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.Thu night - W wind 5 to 10 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri night - W wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat night - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 841 Am Pdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - . Gentle to moderate winds continue into the weekend, with possible gusty and strong winds in the northern outer waters that will pose hazardous to small crafts through today. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 11-16 feet through the late afternoon as well. Waves start to diminish Thursday morning, bringing calm conditions over the waters.

FXUS66 KMTR 031722 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1022 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Extreme heat will continue for inland areas and higher elevations.
Triple digit afternoon temperatures are expected into early next week. Please take it easy, we are still in the early stages of this prolonged heat wave.

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

It's a bit past 9am, and temperatures across the region are running on average anywhere from 3-7 degrees warmer than this same time yesterday. A few spots in the South Bay are even 10-11 degrees warmer than this same time yesterday with current temps sitting in the low 90s. Read that again. 9am, and temperatures are in the 90s in the South Bay. But wait! They're in the 90s in the East Bay, central San Benito county, and the eastern portion of Napa county bordering that of Yolo and Solano counties too! Elsewhere but for the immediate coast, temperatures are well into the upper 80s.
Needless to say, its going to be another very hot day across our region. Keep in mind, this is JUST day 2 of an extraordinary heat wave (interior regions reaching into 95-100+ degrees daytime highs)
that keeps going through at least Tuesday of next week, and potentially even Wednesday. We're not just looking at a marathon, but an ultra-marathon at this point. Its one thing to have a stretch of very hot days, its another to have stretch of very hot days AND little to no overnight relief. This is the part that can be most taxing on our bodies: The normal relief we might get from cool overnight temperatures just isn't quite there, therefore forcing our bodies to keep working harder to keep us cool. But not just our bodies; our infrastructure too.

So please, take it easy, take it safe, and stay cool however you can. We've seen a lot of comments and replies downplaying the severity of the heat we are expecting, and even accusing ourselves and other offices of "fearmongering". Make no mistake, this heat wave is extreme, and will likely be deadly as the days of extreme heat continue to accumulate, especially given that there are many homes throughout the Bay Area that do not have air conditioning installed. We are not here to fearmonger, but rather to inform you all to the best of our abilities and to protect life and property during this extreme heat event. We want everyone to be safe and informed.

This all aside, we are examining the need to extend Red Flag Warnings for critically dry conditions that persist through the weekend. All for now.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

It's almost 1 AM as I type this and it's still 80 degrees in San Jose. Weather stations in the thermal belt around 1,500 ft are still in the low 90s. This is 5-10 degrees higher than expected on even the high-resolution short term models. If this trend holds through sunrise, the warm start will lead to numerous daily records being broken Wednesday. The NBM 50th percentile max temperature strategy broadly panned out yesterday, and was used again for the forecast this morning. One notable bust was Santa Cruz, where we forecast mid 80s, but they never got out of the 60s.
This is evidence that the marine layer, while shallow, is still having a profound cooling effect on coastal cities. This natural air conditioning will continue along the coast today, but with building high pressure, the marine layer will compress below 500 ft and won't extend as far inland. If you live along the coast, enjoy the nice weather, but before you complain that we are over-hyping the heat wave, remember that it was 108 degrees in Concord yesterday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

July 4th is in the middle of this heat wave. It will be clear and hot, unless you can make it to the coast. With a shallow marine layer, there will be a big difference across the Bay Area microclimates. As an example, downtown San Francisco will be in the mid 80s, while Ocean Beach will remain in the mid 60s. Winds will mostly remain gentle to moderate. Enjoy the day but stay weather aware. Use caution in the heat or on the beach, and please skip the fireworks this year. Wildfires will be easy to start and quick to spread.

The lastest weather balloon found 850 mb temperatures have climbed above 25C. This threshold is reached 1.8% of the time. More interesting is the fact that the 850 mb temp now is expected to remain above 25C through the end of next week. Nearly all members of the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles keep a strong ridge in place that very gradually slides east over the next week and a half. As such, the confidence is high and increasing that this heat wave will persist through the end of next week for inland areas. There may be some slight relief after the weekend and inland temps may move back in the double digits, but it's not a big cool-down.
Additionally, the cumulative effect of this long heat wave will make it hard to appreciate the modest relief in afternoon temps.
With no strong offshore winds expected, coastal areas will remain more mild through this event.

It cannot be stressed enough that this is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation. It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas. Several days of temperatures well above normal and little relief overnight will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities and rolling black outs. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Satellite shows clear skies across the region with some stratus off the coast traveling northward. The marine layer has compressed under the high pressure systems influence. This will increase the chances for some low visibility and low ceilings near the coastal sites.
Higher confidence that only Monterey terminals may be effected, but chances still remain low. With some current fires, there is a chance for haze near the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. Onshore winds will become moderate to breezy this afternoon before becoming variable and light tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period. NW/W winds will become breezy this afternoon up to 12 knots. Winds become light this evening into the morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Confidence is low that lower CIGs and visibility will occur but models suggest LIFR conditions over night. Will continue to monitor for any updates needed to the TAFs.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Gentle to moderate winds continue into the weekend, with possible gusty and strong winds in the northern outer waters that will pose hazardous to small crafts through today. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 11-16 feet through the late afternoon as well. Waves start to diminish Thursday morning, bringing calm conditions over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for high elevations of the North Bay, East Bay, and the Santa Cruz Mountains. These RFW extend through 5 AM Friday, including the 4th of July holiday.
Fuels will continue quickly curing through the weekend. In fact, 10 and 100 hour fuels are near historic levels in the North Bay in regard to the energy release component going into the weekend.
The same fuels in the Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mtns aren't far behind. Further south, things start to dry out more this weekend.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Santa Lucia Range, Interior Monterey and San Benito county, and the Southern Salinas Valley from Friday morning to Sunday night.

BEACHES
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Beaches will be a popular destination over the Holiday and as one of the few places to escape the oppressive inland temperatures.
Fortunately the waves are relatively low energy, but that doesn't alleviate all beach safety concerns. Ocean temperatures are in the mid-50s. This cold water may catch some off-guard. Cold water shock can set in very quickly. Wear a life jacket, dress appropriately, limit time in the water, swim near a lifeguard and follow their instructions.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This heat wave will continue to break daily records. Here's a look at locations that tied or beat their daily record on Tuesday, July 2nd.

LOCATION HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD --------------------------------------------------------------- SAN JOSE 102 (TIED) 102 IN 1970 SAN RAFAEL 103 101 IN 1991 KENTFIELD 103 101 IN 1991 SANTA ROSA 105 103 IN 1970 OAKLAND 90 89 IN 2001

These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncei.noaa.gov.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ006-506-508.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518.

Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-512-515.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ508-528-529.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ516>518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Coyote Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM PDT     -1.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM PDT     7.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 PM PDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:25 PM PDT     9.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coyote Creek, Tributary, Tide feet

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:42 AM PDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:30 AM PDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:49 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:33 PM PDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:14 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:04 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:49 PM PDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:34 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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