Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harper, OR
June 2, 2024 3:50 PM MDT (21:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 9:24 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM Moonset 4:19 PM |
FXUS65 KBOI 022049 AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday night...A strong surge of moisture will flow into our area this evening. It is still forecast to qualify as a moderate atmospheric river. While lots of the moisture will struggle to make it over the Cascades, we are still forecasting near record amounts of PW in our area and QPF for the Mountains. PWs of just under an inch throughout the event and orographic effect support rainfall amounts of near to just under an inch in mountain valleys, and 2-3 inches on mountain ridges. There will be some terrain shadowing, especially NE of the Steens and the Owyhees, but valley locations near the foothills will see amounts of 0.2-0.6 inches, strongly correlated to proximity to the terrain. Shadowed regions and portions of far SE Oregon will still see some rain, but closer to 0.05 inches. As mentioned in the morning discussion QPFs did come down a hair with this latest forecast, especially as early observations from the coast are on the lower end of the forecasted range, but storm total amounts didn't actually change that much even taking these into account. While the trend of underachieving could continue leading to a wide range of outcomes, the current forecast is still the most likely scenario. Steady rainfall will last from about Sunday evening to Monday evening, though most Oregon locations will end closer to noon on Monday.
Monday afternoon and evening, in the mountains, some low-level instability will aid in the development of banded terrain driven storms and heavier showers. High resolution models are consistently resolving these types of training showers in portions of the West Central Mountains. These storms will cause locally much higher rainfall as they train over the same areas downstream of terrain. The current QPFs, banded storms, and snowmelt augmentation has warranted the issuance of a Flood Watch. The timing of the Flood Watch is offset from the beginning and ending of rain as it may take a few hours for water to travel to areas of elevated flood potential. Mud or rockslides are also possible in the watch area, especially under banded storms.
Monday afternoon will also be breezy for SE Oregon, far SW Idaho, and the Magic Valley. Gusts of 35-45 mph are possible with sustained winds near 20-25 mph. Some clearing Tuesday morning could allow for fog and low stratus clouds to form in valleys, especially in areas with poor drainage where standing water and saturated surface soils will contribute to fog development. As the low pressure and moisture move east, temperatures increase on Tuesday as high pressure builds and a sharp warming trend begins.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...Models remain consistent in showing an upper ridge over the southern U.S. expanding northward and persisting into next weekend. The expansion of the ridge results in unseasonably hot temperatures developing by Thursday and lasting into the weekend. There remains a high probability (60-90 percent chance) of high temperatures exceeding 90F in the lower valleys (including the Treasure Valley) and about a 30 percent chance the Ontario area in the Lower Treasure Valley could reach 100F (which would be near record territory). Models also remain consistent in showing enough moisture available for a chance (20-30 percent) of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day beginning Thursday.
AVIATION
VFR the rest of the afternoon with deteriorating conditions tonight. Low confidence (20-40 percent chance) of rain reaching KBNO-KBKE-KMYL before 03/00Z, high confidence (80-90 percent chance) of MVFR conditions and mountain obscurations with rain developing across the north (KBKE-KMYL) between 03/00Z and 03/06Z. Chance of showers (40-60 percent) impacting Treasure Valley terminals between 03/00Z-03/06Z. Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain and low clouds over the KBKE and KMYL areas after 03/06Z with areas of MVFR to the south. Mountains obscured. Areas of LLWS developing after 03/02Z. Surface winds: SW-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, except becoming SE 5-15 kt in the Treasure Valley after 03/06z. 10k ft MSL winds: W-SW 20-30 kt increasing to 35-50 kt after 06z.
KBOI...VFR. W to NW winds 10 kt or less becoming SE after 03/06z.
Low confidence (30-40 percent chance) of rain reaching the terminal between 03/00-03/06Z, high confidence (85-90 percent chance) of rain and low VFR ceilings after 03/06Z.
HYDROLOGY
Still looking for an unusually wet period tonight and Monday over the area, particularly across the West- central and Boise Mountains where rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts area anticipated by Monday evening.
Near-surface soil is slightly drier than is normal for this time of year, so there is some room for at least initial rainfall to be absorbed by the soil. Mainstem rivers currently are not forecast to reach flood stage but some smaller tributary creeks and streams could reach or exceed bankfull resulting in minor flooding. Mud and rock slides could be an issue in steep terrain as well. Use caution if traveling in the mountains on Monday and Tuesday, and avoid recreation near rivers and creeks in mountainous and steep terrain.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Flood Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Monday evening IDZ011-013.
OR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday night...A strong surge of moisture will flow into our area this evening. It is still forecast to qualify as a moderate atmospheric river. While lots of the moisture will struggle to make it over the Cascades, we are still forecasting near record amounts of PW in our area and QPF for the Mountains. PWs of just under an inch throughout the event and orographic effect support rainfall amounts of near to just under an inch in mountain valleys, and 2-3 inches on mountain ridges. There will be some terrain shadowing, especially NE of the Steens and the Owyhees, but valley locations near the foothills will see amounts of 0.2-0.6 inches, strongly correlated to proximity to the terrain. Shadowed regions and portions of far SE Oregon will still see some rain, but closer to 0.05 inches. As mentioned in the morning discussion QPFs did come down a hair with this latest forecast, especially as early observations from the coast are on the lower end of the forecasted range, but storm total amounts didn't actually change that much even taking these into account. While the trend of underachieving could continue leading to a wide range of outcomes, the current forecast is still the most likely scenario. Steady rainfall will last from about Sunday evening to Monday evening, though most Oregon locations will end closer to noon on Monday.
Monday afternoon and evening, in the mountains, some low-level instability will aid in the development of banded terrain driven storms and heavier showers. High resolution models are consistently resolving these types of training showers in portions of the West Central Mountains. These storms will cause locally much higher rainfall as they train over the same areas downstream of terrain. The current QPFs, banded storms, and snowmelt augmentation has warranted the issuance of a Flood Watch. The timing of the Flood Watch is offset from the beginning and ending of rain as it may take a few hours for water to travel to areas of elevated flood potential. Mud or rockslides are also possible in the watch area, especially under banded storms.
Monday afternoon will also be breezy for SE Oregon, far SW Idaho, and the Magic Valley. Gusts of 35-45 mph are possible with sustained winds near 20-25 mph. Some clearing Tuesday morning could allow for fog and low stratus clouds to form in valleys, especially in areas with poor drainage where standing water and saturated surface soils will contribute to fog development. As the low pressure and moisture move east, temperatures increase on Tuesday as high pressure builds and a sharp warming trend begins.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...Models remain consistent in showing an upper ridge over the southern U.S. expanding northward and persisting into next weekend. The expansion of the ridge results in unseasonably hot temperatures developing by Thursday and lasting into the weekend. There remains a high probability (60-90 percent chance) of high temperatures exceeding 90F in the lower valleys (including the Treasure Valley) and about a 30 percent chance the Ontario area in the Lower Treasure Valley could reach 100F (which would be near record territory). Models also remain consistent in showing enough moisture available for a chance (20-30 percent) of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day beginning Thursday.
AVIATION
VFR the rest of the afternoon with deteriorating conditions tonight. Low confidence (20-40 percent chance) of rain reaching KBNO-KBKE-KMYL before 03/00Z, high confidence (80-90 percent chance) of MVFR conditions and mountain obscurations with rain developing across the north (KBKE-KMYL) between 03/00Z and 03/06Z. Chance of showers (40-60 percent) impacting Treasure Valley terminals between 03/00Z-03/06Z. Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain and low clouds over the KBKE and KMYL areas after 03/06Z with areas of MVFR to the south. Mountains obscured. Areas of LLWS developing after 03/02Z. Surface winds: SW-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, except becoming SE 5-15 kt in the Treasure Valley after 03/06z. 10k ft MSL winds: W-SW 20-30 kt increasing to 35-50 kt after 06z.
KBOI...VFR. W to NW winds 10 kt or less becoming SE after 03/06z.
Low confidence (30-40 percent chance) of rain reaching the terminal between 03/00-03/06Z, high confidence (85-90 percent chance) of rain and low VFR ceilings after 03/06Z.
HYDROLOGY
Still looking for an unusually wet period tonight and Monday over the area, particularly across the West- central and Boise Mountains where rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts area anticipated by Monday evening.
Near-surface soil is slightly drier than is normal for this time of year, so there is some room for at least initial rainfall to be absorbed by the soil. Mainstem rivers currently are not forecast to reach flood stage but some smaller tributary creeks and streams could reach or exceed bankfull resulting in minor flooding. Mud and rock slides could be an issue in steep terrain as well. Use caution if traveling in the mountains on Monday and Tuesday, and avoid recreation near rivers and creeks in mountainous and steep terrain.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Flood Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Monday evening IDZ011-013.
OR...None.
Boise, ID,
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