Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 7:44 PM

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PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 236 Pm Pdt Wed Jun 5 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Long period westerly swell will gradually diminish through tonight, while a developing thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas starting this afternoon. As a result, steep seas are expected in all areas, with very steep seas south of cape blanco. Isolated gales may be possible south of gold beach on Thursday evening when the thermal trough peaks. Conditions should improve late Friday through late Saturday. A thermal trough may rebuild Saturday evening.

FXUS66 KMFR 060103 AAA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 603 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION

The low stratus that was covering most of the Umpqua Basin has burnt off for the most part by this afternoon. We're also watching some mid level moisture and clouds move over the forecast area this afternoon. The only concern for this afternoon with be some a thunderstorm kicking off around Modoc County in the Warners. Satellite data has shown some cumulus building as of writing this AFD, so the threat of some cloud to ground lightning is there, yet the probability of anything form is low based on the latest observation and model forecast.As for tonight, temperatures will fall to near normals for overnight lows with plenty of clear skies.

Conditions will trend slightly warmer into Thursday as high pressure remains in control. Model guidance is painting a larger area of 15% chance of cloud to ground lightning across locations east of the Cascades and within northern California. We have better confidence for thunderstorms activity on Thursday as a shortwave moves in off the coast of northern California. This wave appears to bring more moisture to the area with convective available potential energy increasing up to 1000 J/kg across larger sections of the forecast area. Upper level shear also looks good for some thunderstorm sustenance with 0-6km shear values around 25 to 35 knots. Overall, we think we'll see some cloud to ground lightning across the area on Thursday, although the chances near a specific point is around 15%-25%.

Friday should be the warmest day with high temperatures pushing into the upper 90's here in Medford with lower 90' east of the Cascades, which is definitely on the warmer side for early June.
High temperatures east of the Cascades will be about 20 degrees warmer than normal on Friday and we could be testing high temperature records for some of those sites. The record high for Klamath Falls and Alturas is 91 and 93 both set in 1996. We're currently expecting to tie both of these records.

As for heat risk and impacts on Friday, there will be a period of high heat risk on Friday afternoon as this will be one of the warmer days so far this summer. However, given the brief period of warmer temperatures over multiple days, heat risk is more moderate in our forecast area. Low temperatures drop down to their respective normals, which will allow those at risk to recover from the warmer daytime temperatures. Therefore, we opted to stay away from a heat advisory given the brevity of warm temperatures and the cooler overnight lows.

An upper level trough and some deeper south west to west flow will bring in a little more moisture and cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. However, temperatures will remain warm east of the Cascades. The upper level trough should swing through the forecast area by Saturday afternoon or evening. As a result, showers and thunderstorms should kick off east of the Cascades around Lake County. The NBM currently has a 20% chance of precipitation Saturday evening and Sunday evening east of the Cascades. The probability of thunder actually shows some values higher than that and peaks up to 40% Saturday evening near Chemult.

Towards the start of next week around Monday and Tuesday, the ENS is keeping a weak ridge over the region and the NBM is keeping PoPs near 0%. There doesn't appear to be any weather impacts except for some stronger north winds in the Marine waters.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal, although heat risk is anticipated to be low.

-Smith

AVIATION
06/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the area this evening. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible along the coast again tonight into early Thursday morning, but should not be as extensive as it was this morning. Gusty afternoon/evening winds are expected at the coast today and Thursday.

Other inland areas will remain at VFR levels under clear skies.

-BPN/CC

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Wednesday, June 5, 2024...Long period westerly swell will gradually diminish through tonight. As the long- period swell starts to decrease, a thermal trough will develop and produce gusty north winds across most area waters. The strongest winds and steepest seas will be south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas will continue in waters north of Cape Blanco, while very steep and hazardous wind-built seas will develop south of Cape Blanco by this evening. Currently, these conditions are expected to continue through at least Friday morning. Winds are forecast to peak on Thursday evening, with gale gusts possible south of Gold Beach.

Please see MWWMFR for more detail about Small Craft Advisories and Hazardous Seas Warnings in place through Friday morning.

Seas start to calm on Friday, although some amount of steep seas will continue through the morning. Active seas are expected to return on Saturday evening as a thermal trough rebuilds over area waters and remains into next week. -TAD/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ021- 022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

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Charleston
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Wed -- 04:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:14 AM PDT     -1.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:53 PM PDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM PDT     2.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:50 PM PDT     8.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

Entrance
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Wed -- 04:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:13 AM PDT     -1.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:02 PM PDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 PM PDT     2.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:44 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:51 PM PDT     7.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,