Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Plattsburgh, NY
June 13, 2024 2:46 AM EDT (06:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:05 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 12:13 PM Moonset 1:00 AM |
SLZ024 Expires:202406130315;;902574 Fzus61 Kbuf 121956 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 356 pm edt Wed jun 12 2024
slz022-024-130315- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 356 pm edt Wed jun 12 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Becoming mainly clear.
Thursday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers.
Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Sunday - Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Monday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 356 pm edt Wed jun 12 2024
slz022-024-130315- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 356 pm edt Wed jun 12 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 130534 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
Comfortable conditions will trend warm as highs are expected to reach into the 80s on Thursday. A cold front will slice through the region on Friday to bring cooler conditions along with some showers in the morning, and possibly thunderstorms during the afternoon mainly in southern areas. Following spectacular weekend weather, summer heat and humidity will build early next week with potential for very hot weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 126 AM EDT Thursday...The forecast is in good shape. Some patchy fog is starting to develop, mainly in the Adirondacks where radiational cooling has been very efficient. Saranac Lake has already taken the plunge down to 42. What a place. Only minor tweaks needed. Previous discussion below:
Previous discussion...Weak low pressure spinning over the Gulf of Maine has promoted some northerly flow over Vermont and lingering stratocumulus. Meanwhile, light southwest flow is present in much of northern New York ahead of a more substantial low pressure area moving northeastward through Ontario. Through tomorrow night, that system and its associated troughs/shortwaves will be the forcing for shower chances as southwesterly low level flow overspreads the region. For tonight, light flow and clearing skies will promote a chance of dense river valley fog early tomorrow morning, with most coverage in eastern Vermont where winds just above the surface look particularly light compared with areas farther west.
Until tomorrow evening, expect continued dry weather. Moderately dry air and abundant sunshine should support highs in the low to mid 80s in most spots as our air mass modifies on the low level southwest flow. Still looks like some deep mixing will develop given this dry air and increasing pressure gradient, which will promote breezy conditions. Momentum transfer in the boundary layer suggests in locations like Ogdensburg, New York a few gusts over 30 MPH will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. Instability will likely be between 500 and 1000 J/kg across northern New York, tapering off farther east, during that period, but the forcing for convection will remain to our west such that we still have a low chance of precipitation.
Towards midnight, and then through the pre-dawn hours, isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with a thunderstorm or two, will roll eastward through primarily northern portions of our region along a pre-frontal trough. It will be a much warmer night than recent ones, especially given trend towards less precipitation coverage; without rain cooled air, temperatures in the wide valleys could stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the night.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will pass through the region on Friday and bring some showers and thunderstorms. There is a low possibility of severe storms, mostly across southern Vermont, and the SPC included that area in their marginal risk category. As the front passes through on Friday, there should be more than enough 1000-500 mb shear. The GFS/Euro ensemble mean is around 50 KTs and over 90 percent of the members have greater than 30KTs. However, the best dynamics associated with the front are to the south of the region by the time diurnal heating occurs, so instability will be limited. CAPE values generally look to reach between 500-1000 J/Kg, with the highest values over southern Vermont. This should keep the severe threat mostly to the south. These showers should be out of the region by Friday evening and Friday night should be dry. Highs on Friday look to be in the mid 70s to upper 80s with the highest temperatures in southern Vermont where the front reaches last. Lows will fall back into the 40s and 50s Friday night.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...A surface high will build into the region this weekend and lead to a stretch of wonderful weather.
There will be mostly sunny skies, highs in the 60s and 70s, and low humidity. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures should fall back into the 40s and low 50s across the region overnight, though the upper 30s are possible in the coldest hollows Saturday night. Enjoy the weather because by Monday, the high will shift to the east and a return southerly flow will bring increased heat and humidity. The position of the high should cause the flow to be more southwesterly and this would prevent any marine air from moderating the temperatures. Highs above 90 in the broad valleys are becoming likely on Tuesday and Wednesday but whether they will last for a third day on Thursday and cause a heat wave remains uncertain. 925 mb temperatures currently look to be around the 24-28 celsius range Tuesday and Wednesday, which would support temperatures well into the 90s. NBM probabilities suggesting a 40-50 percent chance of Burlington reaching 100 on Wednesday appear to be erroneous due to bias correction issues, but that should not take away from the fact there will be heat related impacts. Dew points also look to approach 70 by Wednesday, so the heat will be accompanied by high humidity. This will help lows stay in the upper 60s and low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so nighttime relief looks to be minimal. There is a little uncertainty on Tuesday as a shortwave may ridge along to top of the ridge and bring a few clouds and showers. This could limit highs slightly that day. A cold front currently looks to come through on Thursday and bring an end to the heat stretch once it passes.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR through the next 24 hours, but with potential for fog at KSLK and KMPV between about 06z and 10z. After 12z, south to southwest winds will gradually increase, and by 14 or 15z, most locations should be 6 to 13 knots sustained with gusts 15 to 22 knots possible, with the highest gusts at KMSS and KBTV. About 23z-01z, faster flow aloft ahead of a boundary with 40 to 45 knot winds at 2000 ft agl are likely and noted LLWS at KMSS, KSLK, and KEFK. This boundary will also bring precipitation, but lagging behind the faster flow, likely arriving near KMSS about 02z-03z then shifting east. Activity will be breaking up and so mentioned prevailing SHRA at KMSS and VCSH eastwards. Surface winds remain elevated after 00z at about 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
Comfortable conditions will trend warm as highs are expected to reach into the 80s on Thursday. A cold front will slice through the region on Friday to bring cooler conditions along with some showers in the morning, and possibly thunderstorms during the afternoon mainly in southern areas. Following spectacular weekend weather, summer heat and humidity will build early next week with potential for very hot weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 126 AM EDT Thursday...The forecast is in good shape. Some patchy fog is starting to develop, mainly in the Adirondacks where radiational cooling has been very efficient. Saranac Lake has already taken the plunge down to 42. What a place. Only minor tweaks needed. Previous discussion below:
Previous discussion...Weak low pressure spinning over the Gulf of Maine has promoted some northerly flow over Vermont and lingering stratocumulus. Meanwhile, light southwest flow is present in much of northern New York ahead of a more substantial low pressure area moving northeastward through Ontario. Through tomorrow night, that system and its associated troughs/shortwaves will be the forcing for shower chances as southwesterly low level flow overspreads the region. For tonight, light flow and clearing skies will promote a chance of dense river valley fog early tomorrow morning, with most coverage in eastern Vermont where winds just above the surface look particularly light compared with areas farther west.
Until tomorrow evening, expect continued dry weather. Moderately dry air and abundant sunshine should support highs in the low to mid 80s in most spots as our air mass modifies on the low level southwest flow. Still looks like some deep mixing will develop given this dry air and increasing pressure gradient, which will promote breezy conditions. Momentum transfer in the boundary layer suggests in locations like Ogdensburg, New York a few gusts over 30 MPH will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. Instability will likely be between 500 and 1000 J/kg across northern New York, tapering off farther east, during that period, but the forcing for convection will remain to our west such that we still have a low chance of precipitation.
Towards midnight, and then through the pre-dawn hours, isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with a thunderstorm or two, will roll eastward through primarily northern portions of our region along a pre-frontal trough. It will be a much warmer night than recent ones, especially given trend towards less precipitation coverage; without rain cooled air, temperatures in the wide valleys could stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the night.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will pass through the region on Friday and bring some showers and thunderstorms. There is a low possibility of severe storms, mostly across southern Vermont, and the SPC included that area in their marginal risk category. As the front passes through on Friday, there should be more than enough 1000-500 mb shear. The GFS/Euro ensemble mean is around 50 KTs and over 90 percent of the members have greater than 30KTs. However, the best dynamics associated with the front are to the south of the region by the time diurnal heating occurs, so instability will be limited. CAPE values generally look to reach between 500-1000 J/Kg, with the highest values over southern Vermont. This should keep the severe threat mostly to the south. These showers should be out of the region by Friday evening and Friday night should be dry. Highs on Friday look to be in the mid 70s to upper 80s with the highest temperatures in southern Vermont where the front reaches last. Lows will fall back into the 40s and 50s Friday night.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...A surface high will build into the region this weekend and lead to a stretch of wonderful weather.
There will be mostly sunny skies, highs in the 60s and 70s, and low humidity. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures should fall back into the 40s and low 50s across the region overnight, though the upper 30s are possible in the coldest hollows Saturday night. Enjoy the weather because by Monday, the high will shift to the east and a return southerly flow will bring increased heat and humidity. The position of the high should cause the flow to be more southwesterly and this would prevent any marine air from moderating the temperatures. Highs above 90 in the broad valleys are becoming likely on Tuesday and Wednesday but whether they will last for a third day on Thursday and cause a heat wave remains uncertain. 925 mb temperatures currently look to be around the 24-28 celsius range Tuesday and Wednesday, which would support temperatures well into the 90s. NBM probabilities suggesting a 40-50 percent chance of Burlington reaching 100 on Wednesday appear to be erroneous due to bias correction issues, but that should not take away from the fact there will be heat related impacts. Dew points also look to approach 70 by Wednesday, so the heat will be accompanied by high humidity. This will help lows stay in the upper 60s and low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so nighttime relief looks to be minimal. There is a little uncertainty on Tuesday as a shortwave may ridge along to top of the ridge and bring a few clouds and showers. This could limit highs slightly that day. A cold front currently looks to come through on Thursday and bring an end to the heat stretch once it passes.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR through the next 24 hours, but with potential for fog at KSLK and KMPV between about 06z and 10z. After 12z, south to southwest winds will gradually increase, and by 14 or 15z, most locations should be 6 to 13 knots sustained with gusts 15 to 22 knots possible, with the highest gusts at KMSS and KBTV. About 23z-01z, faster flow aloft ahead of a boundary with 40 to 45 knot winds at 2000 ft agl are likely and noted LLWS at KMSS, KSLK, and KEFK. This boundary will also bring precipitation, but lagging behind the faster flow, likely arriving near KMSS about 02z-03z then shifting east. Activity will be breaking up and so mentioned prevailing SHRA at KMSS and VCSH eastwards. Surface winds remain elevated after 00z at about 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPBG
NEW Forecast page for KPBG
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NEW Forecast page for KPBG
Wind History graph: PBG
(wind in knots)Sorel
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT 0.84 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT 0.84 meters High Tide
Wed -- 11:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:45 PM EDT 0.79 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT 0.80 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:44 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT 0.84 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT 0.84 meters High Tide
Wed -- 11:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:45 PM EDT 0.79 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT 0.80 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:44 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Burlington, VT,
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