Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 2:41 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 335 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms this morning, then numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 335 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Synopsis - East to southeast winds today will become more easterly by Monday as the ridge of high pressure settles in north of florida. Winds will increase to exercise caution to advisory levels at times by late Monday and remain there through the rest of the week. Main hazard throughout the forecast period will be isolated to scattered Thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FXUS62 KTBW 160732 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

In the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure sliding into the southeastern US today will hold in place through the first half of the week as it gradually amplifies, bringing in drier air aloft across the forecast area. At the surface, broad high pressure over the eastern US will rotate into the Atlantic and hold in place through midweek, with light southeast flow today, becoming easterly and increasing Monday through at least Wednesday. While the National Blend of Models is predicting numerous to widespread storms today, scattered on Monday, then scattered to widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, this is hard to reconcile with the drier air aloft and easterly flow, so the PoP forecast was blended more towards base MOS guidance through Wednesday.

By Thursday, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain, with both the GFS and ECMWF developing a tropical system over the Atlantic and pushing it east into Florida Thursday or Thursday night. Considering this system has yet to develop and that only a handful of the global ensemble members are showing a system moving into Florida, it's hard to put too much confidence in this forecast or the exact impacts. That said, at the very least in increase in moisture and rain chances Thursday and Thursday night looks likely. Either way, the system is expected to be out of the area by Friday, with a return of easterly flow Friday and Saturday, and scattered to numerous rain chances in the afternoon and early evening.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions should hold through at least the morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and build towards the west coast through the late afternoon and evening, with the highest rain chances at area TAF sites expected after 21z.
Rain free and VFR conditions should return by around 04z.

MARINE
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure setting up north of Florida will favor southeast flow today becoming easterly by tonight and holding through at least Wednesday. Wind speeds will increase Monday and Tuesday as a gradient develops between the ridge and a low pressure system forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This will favor Small Craft Exercise Caution or perhaps Small Craft Advisory conditions possible beginning Monday. Locally higher winds and rough seas will be possible in the vicinity of daily thunderstorms.

On Thursday, the forecast gets more uncertain as models are starting to hint at the possibility of tropical low pushing west into Florida from the Atlantic. While it is too early to say whether or not this system will develop or effect the coastal waters, mariners should follow the forecast closely for future updates.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

No humidity concerns. High dispersion indices are expected across the area on Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 77 93 77 / 60 40 20 10 FMY 92 76 92 77 / 40 30 30 10 GIF 94 75 91 75 / 60 30 20 10 SRQ 94 75 94 76 / 50 40 30 10 BKV 94 72 94 72 / 60 40 20 0 SPG 93 80 94 80 / 60 40 30 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Dunedin
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Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:26 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:40 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dunedin, St. Joseph Sound, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Sun -- 02:37 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:10 PM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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