Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:17 AM   Moonset 5:45 PM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 352 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 knots and gusty this afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay, increasing to a moderate chop late in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Light chop on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters becoming a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms with a chance of showers mainly after midnight.Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots and gusty. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy at times. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.Sunday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots and gusty. Choppy on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms especially Saturday night and Sunday. Winds may be much stronger Saturday night through Sunday night pending the position, intensity, and location of beryl.

GMZ100 352 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western gulf of mexico will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the lower texas coast through Friday night. SWells from tropical cyclone beryl should arrive in the lower texas gulf waters beginning Saturday, with roughening and building seas Saturday night through Sunday night as beryl approaches the waters from the southeast. Please Monitor information from the national hurricane center on beryl, which could require watches or warnings over the weekend.

FXUS64 KBRO 030549 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas will continue through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging.
Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated humidity through tomorrow night, which will result in humid nights and hot afternoons. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with dew points in the 70s, heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees. We likely will not reach Heat Advisory criteria, but a Special Weather Statement may be needed to account for elevate heat indices. If you're spending time outdoors, make sure you are following the necessary precautions against the heat to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast.

While many of us are preparing for 4th of July holiday activities, now is a great time to review your hurricane season preparedness plans and keep an eye on the forecast track of Hurricane Beryl. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc. for the latest updates.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the start of the long term period a broad upper-level ridge looks to be situated over the southern US, with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains. Some model guidance is showing this trough deepening through the end of the week, with the ridge shifting further east. This would allow mid and upper level winds over Texas and the Western Gulf to shift more southeasterly to southerly by this weekend. Recent GFS runs have been fairly consistent with moving the ridge further east, while ECMWF runs are keeping the ridge intact over Texas and the Northern Gulf.

Through at least Friday, this pattern will continue to support light to moderate southeasterly winds at the surface with hot afternoon temperatures and near zero rain chances. Afternoon high temperatures look to remain in the mid 90s to just above 100. Heat indices look to peak around 110 Thursday and Friday afternoons, likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria, though Heat Advisories can’t be ruled out.

Moving into the weekend, the primary concern for the forecast will likely be Hurricane Beryl, which is currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in the Central Caribbean. The latest NHC forecast has Beryl weakening over the next few days as the system moves into a region of unfavorable wind shear. The official track then has the system making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula before reemerging into the Bay of Campeche. At this point, the forecast becomes very uncertain as model guidance begins to diverge on both the track and intensity of the storm. Uncertainty in the position of the ridge mentioned earlier, the shear profile over the Western Gulf, and how the land interaction will weaken the system make it difficult to forecast any potential impacts for Deep South Texas at this time. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region. That being said, now would be a great time to make sure you have a plan and are prepared for hurricane season if you haven’t already done so.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

About the only difference between the next 24 hours and the last 24 hours is an increase in southeasterly flow...courtesy of a slightly stronger surface trough across the lee of the Sierra Madre than in recent days
Otherwise
skies should remain fair with mainly patchy, mostly VFR (few-scattered) cumulus and few- scattered cirrus above it. Afternoon winds will get the usual early to mid-afternoon sea breeze push, with strongest speeds reaching McAllen just before sunset, which is typical in this pattern. Winds drop back below 10 knots between 10 PM and 1 AM Thursday.

So
other than the afternoon thermals
and decent period for takeoffs and landings.

MARINE
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate south winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period as surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists.

Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure over the Northern Gulf will likely support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas through the later half of the week. Going into the weekend, the forecast becomes less certain as Hurricane Beryl likely enters the Gulf. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Beryl weakening over the next couple of days before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and reemerging in the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Storm. Beyond that, models diverge on both the intensity and track of Beryl, making it difficult to forecast impacts for the Lower Texas Coast. At least some uptick in wave heights and swell period will be likely, but the extent to which they increase will depend on the exact track and intensity. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 95 81 95 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 99 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 83 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM CDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM CDT     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Port Isabel
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM CDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

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