Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 1:57 AM   Moonset 2:28 PM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 416 Am Cdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, easing to slightly choppy after midnight. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 416 Am Cdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected for the next few days. Caution flags may be needed at times. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible this weekend with rain chances tapering off next week. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, producing strong wind gusts and locally elevated seas. Persistent onshore flow over the next few days could result in strong rip currents along the gulf facing beaches.

FXUS64 KCRP 010923 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 423 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

-Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms today

-High Risk of rip currents today through Sunday

Some Gulf moisture is expected to ride around the ridge this morning combining with a disturbance that is moving across the Central Plains. Models are depicting the environment being somewhat favorable for isentropic lift to occur at the 305K level. This will allow for a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning. This should clear by midday and give way to warm high temperatures across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s to lower 100s out west with heat indices around 110. Cloud cover will potentially work against the high temperatures, thus negating the need for a Heat Advisory today. Guidance is hinting at potential MCS developing sometime this afternoon around the mountainous area of Mexico and tracking eastwards towards the CWA There are discrepancies in the intensity and timing regarding this potential MCS therefore confidence is remaining low at this time. SPC has put the northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) to account for this potential. Conditions dry out Sunday with the potential for Heat Advisory conditions returning due to less cloud cover and high dew points.

Due to the presence of elevated winds and seas and expectation for this to persist through tomorrow, a High Risk for rip currents will exist for this period.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through the middle of the week

- Hurricane season kicks off today, June 1.

No significant changes were made with this long term forecast update as upper level ridging looks to remain in control. With that said, on Monday, a shortwave ejecting across the Southern Plains may suppress the ridge just enough to allow some pockets of vorticity to rotate through the region. If this scenario were to materialize, we could see some convection fire up across the Rio Grande and move our way. Confidence is not too high in this outcome so only have a slight chance mentioned Monday evening, mainly across the Brush Country. In the wake of that shortwave, a stout upper ridge builds across the Desert Southwest as a longwave trough digs into the Midwest. A cold front will be sent south across much of the eastern CONUS late next week but looks to stall before reaching us. Outside of Monday evening, a relative rain-free week is in store for South Texas.

The main concern in the long term is our increasing heat risk through the week. High temps settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105-107 across the Brush Country by the middle of the week. These warm temps and increasing low level moisture will allow for heat indices to climb into the 110-114 range with a few locations exceeding 115 Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, we can expected a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through much of the work week. There may be some slight relief towards the end of the work week as drier air works into the region as ridging builds in but likely won't be enough to really make a difference.

With a relatively quiet forecast in store for the next week, now is a great time to review your emergency preparedness plans. The 2024 Hurricane Season starts today and is expected to be an above normal season. Regardless of how active it is, we know that it will only take one storm to make this season a very bad season for the Middle Texas coast so prepare now. Don't know how to prepare? We have you covered. Head over to weather.gov/crp/hurricaneguide to view our 2024 edition of the South Texas Hurricane Guide. There is tons of information in there to help you be better prepared for this hurricane season.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Low to mid level clouds are spreading across S TX and will continue this trend through the night. Currently the CIGs are at VFR levels but are expected to lower to MVFR between 06-10Z.
Patchy fog from ALI to VCT will also lead to a brief period of MVFR VSBYs around daybreak Saturday. VFR conditions will become prevalent by mid morning and will continue through Saturday afternoon before lowering to MVFR levels once again Saturday evening. Wind gusts from the southeast will range between 20-25 knots on Saturday. A few showers will be possible across the eastern portions of S TX Saturday morning with an increasing chance of thunderstorms by afternoon, mainly across the VCT area.

MARINE
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow with periods of moderate onshore flow will prevail through the day. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.
Moderate to strong southeasterly winds are expected as we head through the work week. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible at times each afternoon through Wednesday, generally over the southern waters and bays. Rain-free conditions are in store for the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 93 81 94 81 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 91 78 93 79 / 30 10 10 0 Laredo 101 79 102 80 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 96 79 98 80 / 20 10 0 0 Rockport 91 82 90 83 / 30 10 10 0 Cotulla 101 80 102 81 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 93 80 95 80 / 20 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 83 92 83 / 30 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.

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Port Lavaca
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Sat -- 12:17 AM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM CDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:52 AM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:42 PM CDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:58 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:04 PM CDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:31 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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