Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 4:14 PM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KMFL 022340 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located off the Carolina coastline, allowing for continued easterly flow and moisture advection across our region. This, along with an upper- level shortwave that will drift southward along the peninsula today, will lead to increased chances for rainfall across much of the region. Multiple rounds of spotty showers and a few thunderstorms have already moved across the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro; activity will continue through the evening, with coverage shifting westward towards interior and southwest FL as winds speeds pick up. The primary risk with the convective development today will be the risk of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. To this effect, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has placed the East Coast metro area under an Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for this afternoon. This means that for any given location within the ERO, there is at least a 5% chance that rainfall could exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of that spot.
Secondary risks with the shower and storm activity today also include the chance for gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday, with the exception of the surface high's influence, which will drift eastward and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with capped at 50%.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak mid level troughing near the Florida Peninsula will gradually become more zonal heading into the middle of the week.
At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to bring light easterly wind flow to the region. This will result in the return to more of a typical summertime pattern across South Florida as shower and thunderstorm chances will be sea breeze driven. The highest chances of convection will start out over the local waters as well as the east coast areas in the morning, and then will shift towards the interior and west coast in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across the east coast, and into the lower 90s across the interior and west coast.

Heading into the latter half of the week, mid level troughing will amplify over the Southeastern portion of the country. At the surface, a frontal boundary will push through the Gulf Coast states on Thursday into Friday as well as Northern Florida during this time frame. This front may try to push further southeastward into Central Florida heading into the first part of the weekend.
While the exact positioning of this front still remains highly uncertain for this part of the forecast, the frontal boundary will cause the winds to veer across South Florida and become south to southwesterly heading into the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. Convection chances will still be mainly sea breeze driven towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, however, the highest chances may shift towards the interior and east coast during this time frame. The front may provide some extra lift and instability to the region heading into the weekend depending on how far south it travels. However, this remains highly uncertain at this time due to differences in the guidance as well as this being towards the end of the forecast period. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

Temperatures will be on a moderating trend across the region during the latter half of the week and into the upcoming weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower 90s across the coasts and into the mid to upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat indices will also increase into the triple digits across most of the area each day during this time frame as south to southwesterly wind flow develops.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dissipating SHRA continue across inland SFL this evening but overall a lull in widespread activity continues. Redevelopment of SHRA overnight along the east coast is currently forecast with light easterly flow continuing. SHRA that directly impacts terminals may result in sub-MVFR cigs/vis. SCT SHRA/TSRA will develop across the region after daybreak Monday, with TEMPOs potentially needed as warranted.

MARINE
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the workweek as breezy easterly winds gradually diminish in strength.
Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft range today, staying at or below 3 feet through the first half of the week. Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms each afternoon could result in localized higher seas and winds.

BEACHES
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Breezy easterly winds along the East Coast will result in a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches today. The risk will diminish as the week progresses and winds die down.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 77 87 77 88 / 50 60 60 60 West Kendall 73 88 74 90 / 50 60 50 60 Opa-Locka 76 88 77 90 / 50 60 50 50 Homestead 76 87 77 89 / 50 70 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 76 86 77 87 / 50 60 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 77 88 / 50 60 50 50 Pembroke Pines 77 89 77 92 / 50 60 50 50 West Palm Beach 75 87 75 88 / 40 70 40 50 Boca Raton 76 87 76 89 / 50 60 50 50 Naples 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 70 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:13 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:17 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:45 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2), Tide feet

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