Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rapid City, SD
July 3, 2024 3:28 AM MDT (09:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:13 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM Moonset 7:14 PM |
Area Discussion for - Rapid City, SD
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KUNR 030800 AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 200 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Organized severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening - Coolish 4th of July - Warmer and progressively drier pattern starts Friday - Hot/dry weather develops next week
DISCUSSION
(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
07z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into northeast CO. Weak shortwave ridge passing through CWA with quiet weather in place. Upstream wave of interest over southern BC/AB, the main weather maker for the short term.
Today/tonight, BC/AB shortwave drops southeast into the northern plains. Surface low develops over central WY along strengthening lee trough and developing weak warm front extending from low into northern NE. Southeasterly upslope flow will promote 1KJ/kg mean SBCAPE (per HRRR) from the Black Hills into southern SD by mid- afternoon. Some guidance significant higher, but some lower, so confidence in moisture return a bit shaky. Afternoon buoyancy values most uncertain over northeastern WY as afternoon mixing modulates boundary layer. Forecast hodographs depict significant lengthening with 45-60kts 0-6km bulk shear by evening over much of the CWA Hodograph shapes initially suggest splitting supercell potential with right movers dominant by evening near surface boundaries. CAMS suggest convective initiation around 19z over northeastern WY, spreading into the Black Hills/southern SD by mid-afternoon. Large/very large hail and damaging winds possible with an isolated tornado near surface boundaries. Some guidance suggests a secondary round of strong/severe convection as main synoptic forcing arrives later this evening, but atmosphere will be worked over. Beneficial rains welcome, however. Temperatures should be near guidance.
Coolish/unsettled Independence Day foreseen as shortwave spins across the eastern Dakotas leaving moist/cyclonic flow over the area. Popcorn showers/thunderstorms likely, but not necessarily an all-day rain with subsidence/drying ramping up Thursday evening.
Temperatures will be near/slightly below guidance given expected clouds/precipitation.
Friday through Sunday, western CONUS upper ridge promotes slowly amplifying thermal ridge over the northern plains. Northwest flow aloft portends small pops as a couple of inevitable waves wiggle through the northern Plains per northwest flow.
Next week, confidence is increasing that large scale upper/thermal ridge will dominate with increasingly dry/hot weather developing.
Probability of MaxT >= 90F 25-50% in the west Wednesday increasing to 50-75% most areas by Friday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1006 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Storms and showers will be in the area mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening and may cause intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions.
Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 200 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Organized severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening - Coolish 4th of July - Warmer and progressively drier pattern starts Friday - Hot/dry weather develops next week
DISCUSSION
(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
07z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into northeast CO. Weak shortwave ridge passing through CWA with quiet weather in place. Upstream wave of interest over southern BC/AB, the main weather maker for the short term.
Today/tonight, BC/AB shortwave drops southeast into the northern plains. Surface low develops over central WY along strengthening lee trough and developing weak warm front extending from low into northern NE. Southeasterly upslope flow will promote 1KJ/kg mean SBCAPE (per HRRR) from the Black Hills into southern SD by mid- afternoon. Some guidance significant higher, but some lower, so confidence in moisture return a bit shaky. Afternoon buoyancy values most uncertain over northeastern WY as afternoon mixing modulates boundary layer. Forecast hodographs depict significant lengthening with 45-60kts 0-6km bulk shear by evening over much of the CWA Hodograph shapes initially suggest splitting supercell potential with right movers dominant by evening near surface boundaries. CAMS suggest convective initiation around 19z over northeastern WY, spreading into the Black Hills/southern SD by mid-afternoon. Large/very large hail and damaging winds possible with an isolated tornado near surface boundaries. Some guidance suggests a secondary round of strong/severe convection as main synoptic forcing arrives later this evening, but atmosphere will be worked over. Beneficial rains welcome, however. Temperatures should be near guidance.
Coolish/unsettled Independence Day foreseen as shortwave spins across the eastern Dakotas leaving moist/cyclonic flow over the area. Popcorn showers/thunderstorms likely, but not necessarily an all-day rain with subsidence/drying ramping up Thursday evening.
Temperatures will be near/slightly below guidance given expected clouds/precipitation.
Friday through Sunday, western CONUS upper ridge promotes slowly amplifying thermal ridge over the northern plains. Northwest flow aloft portends small pops as a couple of inevitable waves wiggle through the northern Plains per northwest flow.
Next week, confidence is increasing that large scale upper/thermal ridge will dominate with increasingly dry/hot weather developing.
Probability of MaxT >= 90F 25-50% in the west Wednesday increasing to 50-75% most areas by Friday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1006 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Storms and showers will be in the area mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening and may cause intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions.
Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KRAP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRAP
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRAP
Wind History graph: RAP
(wind in knots)
Rapid City, SD,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE