Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Mary, FL
July 3, 2024 5:39 AM EDT (09:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM Moonset 5:46 PM |
AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 325 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon, becoming south in the evening, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest. Seas 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 030655 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues through Independence Day and this weekend. Residents and visitors will need to take extra precautions to prevent heat- related illness.
- Daily chances for showers and storms hold near 30% to 60% from today through the weekend. Overall, storm coverage will be near to below normal, lowest Friday and Saturday.
- As Hurricane Beryl churns toward Jamaica and the Western Caribbean, high pressure will prevent any impacts for Florida.
---------Synoptic Overview----------
Upper heights are building across the Southeast this morning as an H5 anticyclone has nudged eastward, now centered over Alabama. This is in response to a broad trough that has entered the northern High Plains. Relatively flat upper ridging, characterized by H5 heights exceeding 590 dam, extends from California to the subtropical Atlantic. As the mid-latitude trough works through the Great Lakes by this weekend, the H5 high will sink toward North Florida and remain nearby through at least Monday. Hurricane Beryl continues to be steered beneath this ridge on a track WNW through the Caribbean Sea, well south of Florida. 02/12Z ensemble cluster analysis continued to indicate that large-scale agreement in the mass fields remains excellent over Florida over the next several days.
Surface high pressure and relatively light background winds persist throughout the next week. Its axis will also sink slowly southward, reaching Central Florida late Saturday and then slipping toward the FL Straits by late Sunday or Monday. The daily sea breeze circulation will be unimpeded within this pattern. Near-normal tropospheric moisture will remain in place, except late Friday through early Sunday when somewhat drier air briefly filters in aloft.
This overall pattern will continue to support scattered afternoon/early evening storms and above-normal temperatures which will pose a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across Central Florida.
-----Sensible Weather & Impacts-----
Today - Independence Day:
Whether you're heading to the beach, an area attraction, attending a holiday celebration, or just spending time in the backyard - be sure to stay hydrated and find a way to dip out of the hot sun from time to time! Keep an eye to the sky, and head indoors when thunder roars!
Statistical guidance remains biased way too high on rainfall potential. Therefore, we relied heavily on 03/00Z HRRR probabilistic guidance for storm chances for the next couple of days while considering persistence. Only isolated showers are forecast near the coast in the morning hours, then expect 30-40% coverage of a few storms on the advancing sea breeze near and west of I-95 in the afternoon. Our highest storm chances, at 50-60%, lie roughly northwest of I-4 late afternoon/early evening. This is where slightly deeper moisture is forecast to reside atop the sea breeze collision. Proximity soundings indicate 1200-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and dCAPE approaches 1000 J/kg, so there's at least a low potential for gusty winds to 40-45 mph from any stronger storm that develops.
Quick-hitting locally heavy rain of 1-3" leading to minor flooding and frequent lightning are also potential hazards.
H85 T's hold steady around +19C and 0-1 KM mixing ratios remain near 16 g/kg, so we fully expect the type of heat and humidity experienced yesterday to persist. Highs will reach the mid 90s over the interior and low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will peak between 102-107F. Low temperatures will continue to run above normal, in the mid/upper 70s - potentially threatening record warm minima.
Friday - Weekend:
Not a whole lot of change as we move forward in time. It's going to stay hot (maybe even a degree or two hotter) and there remains a daily chance for a few storms.
The upper high will reside very close to us this weekend. Its large- scale subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures (-3C to -4C at H5, above the maximum climatological moving average) will suppress sustained deep convection. PWAT values also briefly sneak below 2" from Friday through Saturday. The near-surface ridge axis will move southward through the weekend, veering the synoptic PBL flow more southerly by Sunday. This translates to roughly 30-50% storm chances Fri/Sat (lowest near the coast and highest far interior), increasing to 50-60% on Sunday as moisture values start creeping upward again.
H85 T's climb slightly this weekend to around +20C, so we would not be surprised if surface temperatures are also a degree or two hotter. Statistical guidance suggests at least a 40% chance of reaching 95 degrees near and northwest of I-4 each day. Combined with seasonably high humidity, peak heat indices should reach 102- 108F. Confidence in how hot our heat indices will get is somewhat challenged by an increase in interquartile dew point spread within the model suite. Two takeaways, 1) there is still a potential for portions of the area to reach Heat Advisory criteria, and 2) either way, the Moderate to Major HeatRisk will persist, indicating an unusually high potential for heat stress.
Early Next Week:
Deep-layer ridging is forecast to extend from the Bermuda High to the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a weakness in upper heights is indicated from the Midwest to Texas. Boundary-layer winds are forecast to hold southerly or even veer slightly SSW, and a slug of higher moisture extending north from a tropical wave over the N Caribbean may pass overhead. Thus, storm chances look a little higher on Monday. At least scattered storm chances (40-60%) will persist into the middle of next week, but confidence does drop off next Tue/Wed as the upper high holds close by and a SAL (Saharan air layer) may advance toward the state.
Temperatures should continue to run near to above normal, with low/mid 90s by day and mid 70s at night. Heat indices will keep lurking at or just below the 108F advisory threshold.
MARINE
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Today-Sunday... A high pressure axis will hold north of Florida through Friday, leading to light daytime SE breezes up to 10 KT (locally enhanced at the coast during the afternoon). Winds become light SW late in the overnight hours. The high pressure axis will settle southward through the local Atlantic this weekend, with light (5-12 KT) S/SE winds by day turning offshore at night. Seas 2-3 FT through the period, with a light to moderate chop over the Intracoastal. A few showers or isolated storms are forecast during the overnight and early morning hours offshore, shifting closer to the coast in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR expected thru much of the TAF. Isolated SHRA cannot be ruled out along the coast, mainly from MLB south thru 12z. Light southerly flow or otherwise variable wind will resume around 10 kt or less after 15z, backing ESE behind the ECSB. Again, iso/sct SHRA/TSRA will form along the inland-moving breeze, with the highest coverage across inland sites after 19z-21z. Activity is expected to wane after 02z Thu. Brief MVFR/IFR conds may accompany the most organized convection.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 77 92 76 / 40 10 50 10 MCO 94 77 95 76 / 50 30 50 10 MLB 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 40 10 VRB 92 76 92 76 / 30 10 30 10 LEE 94 78 95 78 / 60 50 60 20 SFB 94 77 94 77 / 50 30 50 10 ORL 94 77 95 78 / 50 30 50 10 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 30 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues through Independence Day and this weekend. Residents and visitors will need to take extra precautions to prevent heat- related illness.
- Daily chances for showers and storms hold near 30% to 60% from today through the weekend. Overall, storm coverage will be near to below normal, lowest Friday and Saturday.
- As Hurricane Beryl churns toward Jamaica and the Western Caribbean, high pressure will prevent any impacts for Florida.
---------Synoptic Overview----------
Upper heights are building across the Southeast this morning as an H5 anticyclone has nudged eastward, now centered over Alabama. This is in response to a broad trough that has entered the northern High Plains. Relatively flat upper ridging, characterized by H5 heights exceeding 590 dam, extends from California to the subtropical Atlantic. As the mid-latitude trough works through the Great Lakes by this weekend, the H5 high will sink toward North Florida and remain nearby through at least Monday. Hurricane Beryl continues to be steered beneath this ridge on a track WNW through the Caribbean Sea, well south of Florida. 02/12Z ensemble cluster analysis continued to indicate that large-scale agreement in the mass fields remains excellent over Florida over the next several days.
Surface high pressure and relatively light background winds persist throughout the next week. Its axis will also sink slowly southward, reaching Central Florida late Saturday and then slipping toward the FL Straits by late Sunday or Monday. The daily sea breeze circulation will be unimpeded within this pattern. Near-normal tropospheric moisture will remain in place, except late Friday through early Sunday when somewhat drier air briefly filters in aloft.
This overall pattern will continue to support scattered afternoon/early evening storms and above-normal temperatures which will pose a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across Central Florida.
-----Sensible Weather & Impacts-----
Today - Independence Day:
Whether you're heading to the beach, an area attraction, attending a holiday celebration, or just spending time in the backyard - be sure to stay hydrated and find a way to dip out of the hot sun from time to time! Keep an eye to the sky, and head indoors when thunder roars!
Statistical guidance remains biased way too high on rainfall potential. Therefore, we relied heavily on 03/00Z HRRR probabilistic guidance for storm chances for the next couple of days while considering persistence. Only isolated showers are forecast near the coast in the morning hours, then expect 30-40% coverage of a few storms on the advancing sea breeze near and west of I-95 in the afternoon. Our highest storm chances, at 50-60%, lie roughly northwest of I-4 late afternoon/early evening. This is where slightly deeper moisture is forecast to reside atop the sea breeze collision. Proximity soundings indicate 1200-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and dCAPE approaches 1000 J/kg, so there's at least a low potential for gusty winds to 40-45 mph from any stronger storm that develops.
Quick-hitting locally heavy rain of 1-3" leading to minor flooding and frequent lightning are also potential hazards.
H85 T's hold steady around +19C and 0-1 KM mixing ratios remain near 16 g/kg, so we fully expect the type of heat and humidity experienced yesterday to persist. Highs will reach the mid 90s over the interior and low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will peak between 102-107F. Low temperatures will continue to run above normal, in the mid/upper 70s - potentially threatening record warm minima.
Friday - Weekend:
Not a whole lot of change as we move forward in time. It's going to stay hot (maybe even a degree or two hotter) and there remains a daily chance for a few storms.
The upper high will reside very close to us this weekend. Its large- scale subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures (-3C to -4C at H5, above the maximum climatological moving average) will suppress sustained deep convection. PWAT values also briefly sneak below 2" from Friday through Saturday. The near-surface ridge axis will move southward through the weekend, veering the synoptic PBL flow more southerly by Sunday. This translates to roughly 30-50% storm chances Fri/Sat (lowest near the coast and highest far interior), increasing to 50-60% on Sunday as moisture values start creeping upward again.
H85 T's climb slightly this weekend to around +20C, so we would not be surprised if surface temperatures are also a degree or two hotter. Statistical guidance suggests at least a 40% chance of reaching 95 degrees near and northwest of I-4 each day. Combined with seasonably high humidity, peak heat indices should reach 102- 108F. Confidence in how hot our heat indices will get is somewhat challenged by an increase in interquartile dew point spread within the model suite. Two takeaways, 1) there is still a potential for portions of the area to reach Heat Advisory criteria, and 2) either way, the Moderate to Major HeatRisk will persist, indicating an unusually high potential for heat stress.
Early Next Week:
Deep-layer ridging is forecast to extend from the Bermuda High to the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a weakness in upper heights is indicated from the Midwest to Texas. Boundary-layer winds are forecast to hold southerly or even veer slightly SSW, and a slug of higher moisture extending north from a tropical wave over the N Caribbean may pass overhead. Thus, storm chances look a little higher on Monday. At least scattered storm chances (40-60%) will persist into the middle of next week, but confidence does drop off next Tue/Wed as the upper high holds close by and a SAL (Saharan air layer) may advance toward the state.
Temperatures should continue to run near to above normal, with low/mid 90s by day and mid 70s at night. Heat indices will keep lurking at or just below the 108F advisory threshold.
MARINE
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Today-Sunday... A high pressure axis will hold north of Florida through Friday, leading to light daytime SE breezes up to 10 KT (locally enhanced at the coast during the afternoon). Winds become light SW late in the overnight hours. The high pressure axis will settle southward through the local Atlantic this weekend, with light (5-12 KT) S/SE winds by day turning offshore at night. Seas 2-3 FT through the period, with a light to moderate chop over the Intracoastal. A few showers or isolated storms are forecast during the overnight and early morning hours offshore, shifting closer to the coast in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR expected thru much of the TAF. Isolated SHRA cannot be ruled out along the coast, mainly from MLB south thru 12z. Light southerly flow or otherwise variable wind will resume around 10 kt or less after 15z, backing ESE behind the ECSB. Again, iso/sct SHRA/TSRA will form along the inland-moving breeze, with the highest coverage across inland sites after 19z-21z. Activity is expected to wane after 02z Thu. Brief MVFR/IFR conds may accompany the most organized convection.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 77 92 76 / 40 10 50 10 MCO 94 77 95 76 / 50 30 50 10 MLB 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 40 10 VRB 92 76 92 76 / 30 10 30 10 LEE 94 78 95 78 / 60 50 60 20 SFB 94 77 94 77 / 50 30 50 10 ORL 94 77 95 78 / 50 30 50 10 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 30 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSFB ORLANDO SANFORD INTL,FL | 6 sm | 46 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 30.05 | |
| KORL EXECUTIVE,FL | 16 sm | 46 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 30.06 | |
| KDED DELAND MUNISIDNEY H TAYLOR FIELD,FL | 20 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 77°F | 73°F | 89% | 30.07 | |
| KMCO ORLANDO INTL,FL | 24 sm | 46 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 30.06 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSFB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSFB
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSFB
Wind History graph: SFB
(wind in knots)Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT 2.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:16 PM EDT -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT 2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT 2.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:16 PM EDT -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT 2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.9 |
| 6 am |
| 2.3 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:02 AM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT 2.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT 2.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:02 AM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT 2.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT 2.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.9 |
| 6 am |
| 2.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Melbourne, FL,
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