Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kennebunk, ME
June 14, 2024 1:18 PM EDT (17:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:58 AM Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 1:04 PM Moonset 1:04 AM |
ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1101 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Scattered showers. Isolated tstms early, then scattered tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat - N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun - N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds and N 2 ft at 3 seconds.
Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1101 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a cold front will move towards the waters with showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening - Before stalling as it arrives over the waters tonight - .with low pressure passing well south of the waters. High pressure builds over the waters for Saturday and Sunday and then moves east of the gulf of maine and strengthens early next week.
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 141501 AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1101 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will push towards the region today with scattered showers and thunderstorms...some of which have the potential to become strong to severe. This front moves offshore tonight with cooler and drier air arriving for the weekend.
After another seasonable day Monday...temperatures and humidity will build through the middle of the week with an extended period of hot and humid conditions expected.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
11:00am Update... Adjusted POPs for the showers and storms today based on latest radar trends and high res guidance.
Overall no real notable changes, just a bit more coverage with the shower activity for the next couple of hours. While its cloudy across most of the area, a few hours of broken sunshine is still expected this afternoon and allow for some strong to severe storms.
615 AM Update: Matched near term temperature/dewpoint trends which range widely across the forecast area
Otherwise
tracking decaying line of showers as it enters the forecast area pretty much on schedule. Lowered sky cover to the south and east of this band of showers in line with early morning GOES 16 visible imagery
Otherwise
no significant changes to the forecast at this time.
Previous discussion below...
High Impact Weather Potential: Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today with damaging winds and large hail.
Pattern: Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave trough pushing east across eastern Ontario into western Quebec. The associated surface cold front spawned convection across Ontario that has pushed through New York and into Northern New England...decaying as it does so as it runs out of instability to work with.
Tracking the cold front and associated convective activity will be the primary forecast focus today...as well as severe thunderstorm potential.
Through daybreak: Decaying convective line continues to push east towards the region as of this hour with a substantial variation in temperatures across the CWA between locations that have remained coupled seeing temperatures still near 70...while the cooler sheltered locations have falling into the upper 50s.
MUCAPE values are essentially nil as you cross the CT River so while some shower activity will reach the area through daybreak...do not expect much in the way of thunder with no severe threat with temperatures largely holding steady before rising after 6am.
Today: Challenging convective forecast today with pre-frontal trough and remnant shower activity overhead to start the day before the surface cold front arrives this afternoon. Quite a bit of cloudiness is advertised with questions on how much destabilization occurs ahead of the surface cold front. The 3km NAM is rather robust...pushing 70F dewpoints into southern areas which supports MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/kg with good deep layer shear. The HRRR has been somewhat less robust given about half the amount of SB/MLCAPE as surface dewpoints only reach the lower-middle 60s...which appears more reasonable given early morning regional surface observations which show no 70F dewpoints across the northeastern quarter of the country. The GFS/RGEM are even less impressed with the setup having the majority of the second round of convection develop south of our region across southern New England. Recent renditions of the HRRR represent a good compromise solution which show a line of convection after 3pm in the foothills...which pushes to the coast through evening
In this setup
MLCAPES look to be closer to 1000 J/kg /lapse rates look good through H7...but are weak above this/ with 30- 40kts of deep shear which will support updraft organization.
Overall this favors primarily a wind threat with some hail potential given storm organization. SPC has expanded the slight risk across much of southern NH / southwestern ME which lines up best with the juxtaposition of shear and afternoon destabilization. Will continue to focus on this area in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. Expect highs to push into the lower 80s across southern NH and mid/upper 70s elsewhere...
though if more sun materializes...a few extra degrees will be possible.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Pattern: Shortwave and associated vort max within larger longwave trough digs as it pushes into New England tonight slowing the progression of the surface cold front with a weak wave potentially developing along the front before both features move east of the region during the day Saturday allowing drier/cooler air to overspread the region from the northwest.
Tonight: Any remaining convection from Friday evening will weaken and push offshore during the evening hours with clouds slower to clear as the shortwave approaches the coast. Could see a few residual showers near the coast for the overnight though expect most of the activity will remain offshore. Given Friday/s rainfall...areas to the north that clear will have the potential to see some patchy fog development with cloud cover likely limiting that potential closer to the coast. Cold advection behind the surface cold front will allow lows to fall into the 50s throughout the region...with a few readings around 60 across southern NH.
Saturday: Offshore cold front will stall for a time over the Gulf of Maine as low pressure well southeast of Cape Cod pushes north and east...which may allow for a few lingering showers along the coast to start the day but northwesterly flow and associated dry advection strengthens during the day which should clear skies and moderate northwesterly winds. T8s slowly fall towards 5C by evening. Expect highs in the upper 60s in the mountains with mid/upper 70s to the south as northwesterly flow will give some downslope assistance to boost temps in the dry airmass.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Multi Day Heat Expected Next Week...
High Impact Weather Potential: Multiple days of heat indices in excess of 95 to 100F beginning Tuesday likely continuing through the end of the week. The potential exists for heat indices in excess of 105F especially over southern NH and SW ME.
--Pattern and Summary--
The long term period opens with a mobile longwave trough overhead which will move east of the region by Sunday
Beyond this
a significant pattern change is in the works...with longwave troughing digging down the west coast of North America which will help push western US ridging to the east. The result will be a building ridge across the eastern half of the United States on Tuesday with this ridge locking in place over the northeast for the middle and latter portions of the week. This ridge looks to be rather impressive for any time of the summer
not to mention mid June
with H5 return intervals approaching or exceeding 30 years by Wednesday and Thursday and nearing the top end of the GYX sounding climatology.
Thus...the primary forecast concern for the long term will center on temperatures rather than precipitation as the proximity of the ridge next week will likely preclude much in the way of rainfall while temperatures will potentially near record highs centered around the first day of astronomical summer.
--Daily Details--
Saturday - Sunday: One last stretch of dry and seasonable weather is expected to open the period this weekend as offshore cold front pushes east on Saturday with Canadian high pressure building overhead for Sunday. The ensemble guidance envelope includes some members that have a few showers along the coast as the frontal boundary slows over the Gulf of Maine...but expect the day to feature morning clearing...seasonable temperatures /highs in the upper 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s across southern NH/ and dramatically lower dewpoints than on Friday. This sets up a good radiational cooling night Saturday night with 40s common across the area. Expect some of the northern valleys will dip again into the upper /and perhaps middle/ 30s. Sunny weather expected for Father's Day with T8s in the upper single digits suggesting highs in the 70s to around 80 from north to south.
Monday: High pressure settles south of Maritime Canada with deep layer ridging building towards the region from the west will allow return flow to strengthen...with temperatures building to star the week. Monday looks seasonably mild with nearby high pressure /weak gradient/ indicating a robust sea breeze with highs along the coast in the 70s...and temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s inland.
Tuesday - Thursday: T8s push into the upper teens by Tuesday with some potential to push above 20C by Thursday...which represents a 1 in 10 year to 1 in 30 year event for this time in June. Fully mixed...+20C suggests mid 90s which is well-captured by the NBM for Wednesday/Thursday. This is right in the vicinity of daily records for this period /for example...CON for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday is 98F/. A slightly more southerly trajectory to the gradient should allow the immediate coast to stay cooler on Tuesday / 70s to lower 80s / with a seabreeze but by Wednesday and Thursday the gradient turns more westerly with the heat pushing to the coast.
Dewpoints begin the period in the lower 60s on Tuesday...and then into the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday-Thursday with some ensemble members going higher than this. While a few ensemble members have a convective complex trying to push into our area at some point in the extended...this has little ensemble support and conceptually doesn/t fit given our proximity to the center of the ridge
Thus
will maintain a dry forecast through the period.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term
This afternoon
expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop with scattered MVFR/IFR restrictions
Tonight
a few additional showers will be possible for the coastal terminals with some potential isolated restrictions with patchy fog developing inland depending on the extent of rainfall Friday afternoon. This could yield local IFR restrictions.
Southwest winds around 10kts will continue through frontal passage and associated shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon with winds shifting to the northwest <10kts tonight.
The greatest chances for strong thunderstorms will be CON/MHT/PWM/AUG though all sites have the potential for lightning in the 17-00Z time window.
Long Term...Any lingering showers should depart the region early Saturday...with VFR conditions and northwesterly winds 10kts before winds diminish Saturday night with light winds/VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.
MARINE
Short Term...Southwesterly winds bring marginal SCA gusts today along with 3-5' waves. Waves subside tonight as a cold front crosses the waters shifting winds to the northwest...with northerly winds expected to continue for the day Saturday.
Long Term...High pressure builds over the waters this weekend before settling south of the waters early next week. Given this setup, winds/waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through the long term period.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1101 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will push towards the region today with scattered showers and thunderstorms...some of which have the potential to become strong to severe. This front moves offshore tonight with cooler and drier air arriving for the weekend.
After another seasonable day Monday...temperatures and humidity will build through the middle of the week with an extended period of hot and humid conditions expected.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
11:00am Update... Adjusted POPs for the showers and storms today based on latest radar trends and high res guidance.
Overall no real notable changes, just a bit more coverage with the shower activity for the next couple of hours. While its cloudy across most of the area, a few hours of broken sunshine is still expected this afternoon and allow for some strong to severe storms.
615 AM Update: Matched near term temperature/dewpoint trends which range widely across the forecast area
Otherwise
tracking decaying line of showers as it enters the forecast area pretty much on schedule. Lowered sky cover to the south and east of this band of showers in line with early morning GOES 16 visible imagery
Otherwise
no significant changes to the forecast at this time.
Previous discussion below...
High Impact Weather Potential: Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today with damaging winds and large hail.
Pattern: Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave trough pushing east across eastern Ontario into western Quebec. The associated surface cold front spawned convection across Ontario that has pushed through New York and into Northern New England...decaying as it does so as it runs out of instability to work with.
Tracking the cold front and associated convective activity will be the primary forecast focus today...as well as severe thunderstorm potential.
Through daybreak: Decaying convective line continues to push east towards the region as of this hour with a substantial variation in temperatures across the CWA between locations that have remained coupled seeing temperatures still near 70...while the cooler sheltered locations have falling into the upper 50s.
MUCAPE values are essentially nil as you cross the CT River so while some shower activity will reach the area through daybreak...do not expect much in the way of thunder with no severe threat with temperatures largely holding steady before rising after 6am.
Today: Challenging convective forecast today with pre-frontal trough and remnant shower activity overhead to start the day before the surface cold front arrives this afternoon. Quite a bit of cloudiness is advertised with questions on how much destabilization occurs ahead of the surface cold front. The 3km NAM is rather robust...pushing 70F dewpoints into southern areas which supports MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/kg with good deep layer shear. The HRRR has been somewhat less robust given about half the amount of SB/MLCAPE as surface dewpoints only reach the lower-middle 60s...which appears more reasonable given early morning regional surface observations which show no 70F dewpoints across the northeastern quarter of the country. The GFS/RGEM are even less impressed with the setup having the majority of the second round of convection develop south of our region across southern New England. Recent renditions of the HRRR represent a good compromise solution which show a line of convection after 3pm in the foothills...which pushes to the coast through evening
In this setup
MLCAPES look to be closer to 1000 J/kg /lapse rates look good through H7...but are weak above this/ with 30- 40kts of deep shear which will support updraft organization.
Overall this favors primarily a wind threat with some hail potential given storm organization. SPC has expanded the slight risk across much of southern NH / southwestern ME which lines up best with the juxtaposition of shear and afternoon destabilization. Will continue to focus on this area in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. Expect highs to push into the lower 80s across southern NH and mid/upper 70s elsewhere...
though if more sun materializes...a few extra degrees will be possible.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Pattern: Shortwave and associated vort max within larger longwave trough digs as it pushes into New England tonight slowing the progression of the surface cold front with a weak wave potentially developing along the front before both features move east of the region during the day Saturday allowing drier/cooler air to overspread the region from the northwest.
Tonight: Any remaining convection from Friday evening will weaken and push offshore during the evening hours with clouds slower to clear as the shortwave approaches the coast. Could see a few residual showers near the coast for the overnight though expect most of the activity will remain offshore. Given Friday/s rainfall...areas to the north that clear will have the potential to see some patchy fog development with cloud cover likely limiting that potential closer to the coast. Cold advection behind the surface cold front will allow lows to fall into the 50s throughout the region...with a few readings around 60 across southern NH.
Saturday: Offshore cold front will stall for a time over the Gulf of Maine as low pressure well southeast of Cape Cod pushes north and east...which may allow for a few lingering showers along the coast to start the day but northwesterly flow and associated dry advection strengthens during the day which should clear skies and moderate northwesterly winds. T8s slowly fall towards 5C by evening. Expect highs in the upper 60s in the mountains with mid/upper 70s to the south as northwesterly flow will give some downslope assistance to boost temps in the dry airmass.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Multi Day Heat Expected Next Week...
High Impact Weather Potential: Multiple days of heat indices in excess of 95 to 100F beginning Tuesday likely continuing through the end of the week. The potential exists for heat indices in excess of 105F especially over southern NH and SW ME.
--Pattern and Summary--
The long term period opens with a mobile longwave trough overhead which will move east of the region by Sunday
Beyond this
a significant pattern change is in the works...with longwave troughing digging down the west coast of North America which will help push western US ridging to the east. The result will be a building ridge across the eastern half of the United States on Tuesday with this ridge locking in place over the northeast for the middle and latter portions of the week. This ridge looks to be rather impressive for any time of the summer
not to mention mid June
with H5 return intervals approaching or exceeding 30 years by Wednesday and Thursday and nearing the top end of the GYX sounding climatology.
Thus...the primary forecast concern for the long term will center on temperatures rather than precipitation as the proximity of the ridge next week will likely preclude much in the way of rainfall while temperatures will potentially near record highs centered around the first day of astronomical summer.
--Daily Details--
Saturday - Sunday: One last stretch of dry and seasonable weather is expected to open the period this weekend as offshore cold front pushes east on Saturday with Canadian high pressure building overhead for Sunday. The ensemble guidance envelope includes some members that have a few showers along the coast as the frontal boundary slows over the Gulf of Maine...but expect the day to feature morning clearing...seasonable temperatures /highs in the upper 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s across southern NH/ and dramatically lower dewpoints than on Friday. This sets up a good radiational cooling night Saturday night with 40s common across the area. Expect some of the northern valleys will dip again into the upper /and perhaps middle/ 30s. Sunny weather expected for Father's Day with T8s in the upper single digits suggesting highs in the 70s to around 80 from north to south.
Monday: High pressure settles south of Maritime Canada with deep layer ridging building towards the region from the west will allow return flow to strengthen...with temperatures building to star the week. Monday looks seasonably mild with nearby high pressure /weak gradient/ indicating a robust sea breeze with highs along the coast in the 70s...and temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s inland.
Tuesday - Thursday: T8s push into the upper teens by Tuesday with some potential to push above 20C by Thursday...which represents a 1 in 10 year to 1 in 30 year event for this time in June. Fully mixed...+20C suggests mid 90s which is well-captured by the NBM for Wednesday/Thursday. This is right in the vicinity of daily records for this period /for example...CON for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday is 98F/. A slightly more southerly trajectory to the gradient should allow the immediate coast to stay cooler on Tuesday / 70s to lower 80s / with a seabreeze but by Wednesday and Thursday the gradient turns more westerly with the heat pushing to the coast.
Dewpoints begin the period in the lower 60s on Tuesday...and then into the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday-Thursday with some ensemble members going higher than this. While a few ensemble members have a convective complex trying to push into our area at some point in the extended...this has little ensemble support and conceptually doesn/t fit given our proximity to the center of the ridge
Thus
will maintain a dry forecast through the period.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term
This afternoon
expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop with scattered MVFR/IFR restrictions
Tonight
a few additional showers will be possible for the coastal terminals with some potential isolated restrictions with patchy fog developing inland depending on the extent of rainfall Friday afternoon. This could yield local IFR restrictions.
Southwest winds around 10kts will continue through frontal passage and associated shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon with winds shifting to the northwest <10kts tonight.
The greatest chances for strong thunderstorms will be CON/MHT/PWM/AUG though all sites have the potential for lightning in the 17-00Z time window.
Long Term...Any lingering showers should depart the region early Saturday...with VFR conditions and northwesterly winds 10kts before winds diminish Saturday night with light winds/VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.
MARINE
Short Term...Southwesterly winds bring marginal SCA gusts today along with 3-5' waves. Waves subside tonight as a cold front crosses the waters shifting winds to the northwest...with northerly winds expected to continue for the day Saturday.
Long Term...High pressure builds over the waters this weekend before settling south of the waters early next week. Given this setup, winds/waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through the long term period.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf | 12 mi | 134 min | SSW 12G | 62°F | 59°F | 4 ft | 29.83 | |
| SEIM1 | 19 mi | 48 min | 73°F | 61°F | 29.85 | |||
| 44073 | 21 mi | 103 min | S 9.7G | 65°F | 60°F | |||
| BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH | 23 mi | 93 min | SSW 1.9 | 73°F | 29.86 | 69°F | ||
| IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH | 25 mi | 78 min | S 15G | 72°F | 29.82 | 60°F | ||
| 44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME | 26 mi | 38 min | SW 9.7G | 60°F | 56°F | 29.82 | 59°F | |
| CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME | 29 mi | 48 min | 72°F | 57°F | 29.78 | |||
| 44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) | 41 mi | 52 min | 61°F | 3 ft |
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Wind History graph: SFM
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wells, Webhannet River, Maine, Tide feet
Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:04 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:26 AM EDT 0.72 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 02:11 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:04 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:26 AM EDT 0.72 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 02:11 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| -0.6 |
| 9 am |
| -1.3 |
| 10 am |
| -1.6 |
| 11 am |
| -1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.3 |
Portland, ME,
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