Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 12:28 PM   Moonset 12:49 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 1232 Pm Pdt Thu Jun 13 2024
Tonight - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - Light winds, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming light. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sat - Light winds, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sat night - W wind 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sun - N wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W wind 10 to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Mon - E wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Mon night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Tue - NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

PZZ600 1232 Pm Pdt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - At 19z, or 12 pm pdt, a 1029 mb high was located 1500 nm nw of point conception. A 999 mb thermal low was located in central nevada. Hazardous marine conditions, with strong winds and steep seas, will spread across the coastal waters beginning as early as late tonight and will continue through the weekend and into early next week. High-end gale force winds will occur over the outer waters, and gale force winds will be possible across the inner waters north of point sal and the western santa barbara channel.

FXUS66 KLOX 132026 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 126 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
13/822 AM.

Low clouds in coastal and valley areas will clear slowly today.
There will be gusty north winds Friday through the weekend, especially in portions of Santa Barbara County and the mountains.
Expect more sun and a big warm up Friday and Saturday, especially inland. Temperatures return to more seasonal on Sunday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...13/124 PM.

Synoptically, there is a 578 dam upper level low just to the southwest of the area. This feature will move to our east by Friday afternoon and the area will be in a broad area of higher heights and zonal flow. By Monday a trough will develop over the area and linger through the week.

Strong onshore gradients continued across the region today.
Clearing has been fairly slow today, with skies becoming mostly sunny by late morning in the valleys, but still cloudy in some immediate beach locations. Max temps should be within a couple of degrees of those observed Wed in most areas, except there will likely be cooling across far interior sections of SLO/SBA Counties. There will be some gusty west winds in the mtns and the Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening but they should remain below advisory levels.

The upper low will continue to move eastward tonight and Fri, and a weak broad upper ridge will build into the region. The marine layer will likely begin to shrink in depth due to height rises, so expect less inland penetration of the low clouds tonight/Fri morning, with clouds likely below the coastal slopes, and possibly not even pushing into the Santa Clarita Valley. With weakening onshore flow, expect faster clearing in most areas Fri, with the sun probably making an appearance at most beach locations. Rising heights, weakening onshore gradients, and decent warming at 850 and 950 mb should lead to significant warming on Fri across interior areas. Max temps in most valley, mtn and desert locations will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Fri than they are today, and some locations, such as in the Salinas Valley, max temps may be 20 degrees or more higher than those today.

N-S gradients will increase sharply late Fri into Fri night, and gusty NW to N winds will reach Wind Advisory levels across the southwestern SBA County coast, the western Santa Ynez Mountains, and thru the I-5 Corridor. Low clouds should be less widespread, especially in the valleys and across SLO/SBA Counties Fri night/Sat morning, and in fact, may be confined to southern and eastern L.A. County. Gusty N winds will keep temps elevated Fri night in the mtns/foothills, especially in SBA County.

N-S gradients will continue to increase across the region Sat.
Expect any low clouds to clear fairly quickly Sat. Falling heights may bring a bit of cooling to interior areas Sat, but strong N-S gradients will likely bring some additional warming to coastal and valley areas. This will be especially true for the south coast of SBA County. Winds will remain gusty from the NW-N across southwestern SBA County and the I-5 Corridor, and will likely increase and become more widespread Sat afternoon, affecting the Central Coast, the interior mtns of SBA County and northern Ventura County, the Antelope Valley and foothills, and some L.A.
County valley locations.

N-S gradients will peak across the region Sat night, with models showing an offshore gradient of over 5 mb between KSBA and KSMX, and increasing offshore gradients between KSBA/KBFL and KLAX/KBFL.
There will also be increasing W-NW flow at 500 mb, strengthening NW winds at 700 mb and N winds at 850 mb. At the same time, cold air advection will spread into the region late Sat, and subsidence will increase. This will bring the potential for NW-N winds to increase to damaging levels across much of southern SBA County including the foothills near the cities of Santa Barbara and Montecito, the northern mtns of VTU County, the I-5 Corridor, and the western Antelope Valley foothills. There is a High Wind Watch from Sat evening thru Sun morning for the potential for wind gusts of 60-70 mph in the more wind prone locations in these areas.

The powerful NW winds across SLO/SBA Counties and the coastal waters will gin up a good eddy circulation across the inner waters late Sat night/Sun. This will set up the age-old battle between the NW flow and the eddy, making for a difficult cloud forecast for Sat night/Sun morning. If the northerly flow wins out, some gusty winds will affect the L.A. County valleys, and clouds will be confined to southern L.A. County. There may also be clouds across southern portions of the Central Coast due to northerly upslope flow against the northern slopes of the Santa Ynez Range.
If the eddy wins, low clouds will push farther north and west, possibly into the valleys of L.A./VTU Counties. Not only will cloud cover be dependent on the outcome of the eddy/NW flow battle, but so will max temps Sun. In general, expect a few degrees of cooling Sun as heights fall, but cooling will be more significant and widespread in areas south of Pt Conception if the eddy becomes the dominant player.

N-S gradients will remain steep across SLO/SBA Counties Sun into Mon morning, so advisory level NW winds are likely in southern SBA County again late Sun afternoon into Sun night.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...13/125 PM.

Low clouds should become more widespread south of Pt Conception late Sun night/Mon morning. There should several degrees of cooling in most areas Mon as heights continue to fall.

An upper low will move thru the Pac NW Mon and into the northern Rocky Mountains Tue, with a sharpening trough across CA. The trough axis will be located right across the region Tue, then it will move to the east Wed. N-S gradients will remain offshore across SLO/SBA Counties Mon night, then actually increase Tue night. This should keep gusty N winds late each afternoon/evening across southern SBA County Mon thru Wed.

Expect night thru morning low clouds to remain fairly minimal across SLO and SBA Counties, with clouds in most coastal and valley areas of L.A./VTU Counties. Expect minor changes in max temps Tue with some warming possible Wed and Thu as heights begin to rise.

AVIATION
13/2022Z.

At 2000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in deserts TAFs, but low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions to coastal/valley sites, but only moderate confidence in timing and flight category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. For tonight, timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast with a 40% chance conditions could drop to LIFR levels. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of return of LIFR conditions could be +/- 2 hours of current 08Z forecast.

MARINE
13/114 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will develop late tonight and Friday morning, then will increase to Gale Force levels from Friday afternoon through Monday. Seas will peak in the 12 to 15 foot range this weekend. GALE WARNINGS are in effect from Friday afternoon through Monday, and high-end Gale Force Winds around 45 kt are expected. Additionally, there is a 30% percent chance of Storm Force gusts (48 knots or greater) Friday night through Sunday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through much of Friday morning, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. SCA-level winds will develop late Friday morning, and then increase to potentially Gale Force Winds (60-80% chance) Saturday morning through the remainder of the weekend. A GALE WATCH is in effect for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the western Santa Barbara Channel, SCA-level winds will develop late Friday morning and then increase to potentially Gale Force Winds (60-80% chance) Saturday morning through the remainder of the weekend. A GALE WATCH is in effect for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. The strongest winds, including high-end Gale Force Winds around 45 kt, are expected in the far western Santa Barbara Channel south of Gaviota. For the rest of the southern Inner Waters, winds will be notably weaker, though there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Saturday and Sunday.

Across all the coastal waters, steep and dangerous seas can be expected this weekend.

BEACHES
13/111 PM.

There is increasing concern for hazardous beach conditions this weekend into early next week. Wind-wave energy from relatively short-period swell -- around 10-second wave periods and generated by strong winds over the nearby coastal waters -- will impact the beaches starting by early in the weekend. This will bring elevated to High Surf conditions this weekend into early next week. There is a chance (40-70% probabilities) for High Surf conditions for beaches along the Central Coast and Ventura County.
Elevated surf is expected elsewhere, including the Los Angeles County and Santa Barbara County South Coast beaches. Dangerous rip currents will also be of concern for all beaches Friday through at least early next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 PM PDT Saturday for zones 349>353-377-378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Watch remains in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for zones 349>353-377-378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Thu -- 12:49 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:23 AM PDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 PM PDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM PDT     First Quarter
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Los Patos (highway bridge), California, Tide feet

Long Beach
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Thu -- 12:49 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:22 AM PDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM PDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:58 PM PDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM PDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:50 PM PDT     2.56 feet Low Tide
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Long Beach, Terminal Island, California, Tide feet

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