Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenport, NY
July 6, 2024 2:20 PM EDT (18:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:22 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 5:37 AM Moonset 9:31 PM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 134 Pm Edt Sat Jul 6 2024
This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms. Slight chance of showers early, then chance of showers late.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 134 Pm Edt Sat Jul 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 061525 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
***Key Points***
1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ.
All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 98-100F.
2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western locations.
A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight.
This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north which weakens through tonight.
First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms, mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances are it won't reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas, but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight lows will drop into the low/mid-70s.
Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening.
PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur, there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential.
Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs.
Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The stalled cold front will dissipate on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the west under upper-level ridging.
Southerly flow will continue with another warm day expected as highs reach the mid-80s to low-90s again. Heat index values are expected to be right around 95 for much of the area on Sunday which may or may not require another Heat Advisory, depending on location. These heat indices are much lower for areas of the NYC metro and areas N & W of NYC compared to Saturday's because of somewhat drier air behind the front. We'll have a break from rain chances starting on Sunday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
After analysis of some large scale numerical weather prediction models with their MSLP, surface winds, and precipitation forecasts the following features are noted. The models analyzed were the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian, although for forecasts of Monday night onward, just the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian were compared.
The models exhibit better agreement with high pressure over the area. They have agreement with southerly flow across the region for early next week and more convective potential for Tuesday through Tuesday night. The models show cold front lingering nearby for Wednesday but vary more with rain from mid to late week. ECMWF particularly seems to be most aggressive with convection showing a continual cycle of shower and thunderstorm development along the front for mid to late week.
More areas in mid 90s with max heat indices forecast for Monday with relatively higher dewpoints compared to previous day.
Forecast highs are mostly in the 80s for Tuesday and the rest of the days of the forecast.
Showers with mostly chance POPs return to the forecast Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the forecast. Forecast has chances of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Otherwise, thunderstorms have slight chance. Highest coverage and thunderstorm potential appear to be Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday surrounding the cold front moving and how fast it makes its way through.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A slow moving frontal system impacts the terminals through tonight.
VFR conditions are forecast to return to all terminals by early this afternoon with the exception of KGON where low clouds/fog are likely to persist into tonight. It is possible that the eastern terminals, KISP and KBDR hold on to ceilings longer than currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from mid afternoon into this evening. There is low confidence at any one terminal.
MVFR/IFR conditions may work back as far west as KISP and KBDR tonight due to weak flow and residual moisture.
S-SE winds under 10 kt this morning, becoming S-SW and increasing to 10-15 kt for the afternoon. Winds will go light and variable overnight as a weak cold front moves across the area.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO TSRA this aftn/evening might not occur. Should TSRA materialize, timing may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions possible in the morning at the eastern terminals, especially at KGON.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of NYC.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the ocean through tonight as a strengthening S flow increases to 15-20kt and seas build to 4 to 6 ft.
With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds Sunday through the middle of next week.
HYDROLOGY
Isolated to scattered convection this afternoon into early evening brings a localized flash flood from any training convection, with the threat maximized across NYC/NJ metro and points N&W.
Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High risk of rip currents until 9pm Saturday evening for all ocean beaches.
Building onshore swell observed at ocean buoys around 4 ft with wave period of 6 to 10 seconds going into this evening.
Ocean seas are expected to continue to build Saturday to near 5 ft and then slightly subside Sunday to near 4 ft. Onshore winds will be relatively higher Saturday along the ocean beaches with wind speeds of around 10 to 15 mph. The winds become more variable in direction and decrease in speed for Sunday.
These factors will result in the high risk of rip currents remaining at all ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island through Saturday and into the first half of Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents forecast for the ocean beaches on Sunday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176>178.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
***Key Points***
1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ.
All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 98-100F.
2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western locations.
A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight.
This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north which weakens through tonight.
First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms, mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances are it won't reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas, but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight lows will drop into the low/mid-70s.
Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening.
PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur, there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential.
Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs.
Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The stalled cold front will dissipate on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the west under upper-level ridging.
Southerly flow will continue with another warm day expected as highs reach the mid-80s to low-90s again. Heat index values are expected to be right around 95 for much of the area on Sunday which may or may not require another Heat Advisory, depending on location. These heat indices are much lower for areas of the NYC metro and areas N & W of NYC compared to Saturday's because of somewhat drier air behind the front. We'll have a break from rain chances starting on Sunday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
After analysis of some large scale numerical weather prediction models with their MSLP, surface winds, and precipitation forecasts the following features are noted. The models analyzed were the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian, although for forecasts of Monday night onward, just the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian were compared.
The models exhibit better agreement with high pressure over the area. They have agreement with southerly flow across the region for early next week and more convective potential for Tuesday through Tuesday night. The models show cold front lingering nearby for Wednesday but vary more with rain from mid to late week. ECMWF particularly seems to be most aggressive with convection showing a continual cycle of shower and thunderstorm development along the front for mid to late week.
More areas in mid 90s with max heat indices forecast for Monday with relatively higher dewpoints compared to previous day.
Forecast highs are mostly in the 80s for Tuesday and the rest of the days of the forecast.
Showers with mostly chance POPs return to the forecast Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the forecast. Forecast has chances of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Otherwise, thunderstorms have slight chance. Highest coverage and thunderstorm potential appear to be Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday surrounding the cold front moving and how fast it makes its way through.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A slow moving frontal system impacts the terminals through tonight.
VFR conditions are forecast to return to all terminals by early this afternoon with the exception of KGON where low clouds/fog are likely to persist into tonight. It is possible that the eastern terminals, KISP and KBDR hold on to ceilings longer than currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from mid afternoon into this evening. There is low confidence at any one terminal.
MVFR/IFR conditions may work back as far west as KISP and KBDR tonight due to weak flow and residual moisture.
S-SE winds under 10 kt this morning, becoming S-SW and increasing to 10-15 kt for the afternoon. Winds will go light and variable overnight as a weak cold front moves across the area.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO TSRA this aftn/evening might not occur. Should TSRA materialize, timing may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions possible in the morning at the eastern terminals, especially at KGON.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of NYC.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the ocean through tonight as a strengthening S flow increases to 15-20kt and seas build to 4 to 6 ft.
With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds Sunday through the middle of next week.
HYDROLOGY
Isolated to scattered convection this afternoon into early evening brings a localized flash flood from any training convection, with the threat maximized across NYC/NJ metro and points N&W.
Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High risk of rip currents until 9pm Saturday evening for all ocean beaches.
Building onshore swell observed at ocean buoys around 4 ft with wave period of 6 to 10 seconds going into this evening.
Ocean seas are expected to continue to build Saturday to near 5 ft and then slightly subside Sunday to near 4 ft. Onshore winds will be relatively higher Saturday along the ocean beaches with wind speeds of around 10 to 15 mph. The winds become more variable in direction and decrease in speed for Sunday.
These factors will result in the high risk of rip currents remaining at all ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island through Saturday and into the first half of Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents forecast for the ocean beaches on Sunday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176>178.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 22 mi | 51 min | 73°F | 67°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 24 mi | 51 min | 73°F | |||||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 31 mi | 51 min | S 5.1G | 75°F | 70°F | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 43 mi | 51 min | S 5.1G | 78°F | 72°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSNC CHESTER,CT | 21 sm | 25 min | S 07 | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Fog | 75°F | 75°F | 100% | 29.88 |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 23 sm | 27 min | SSW 09G18 | 7 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.89 | |
| KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 23 sm | 24 min | SSW 07 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.88 |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 24 sm | 26 min | SSW 07G18 | -- | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.89 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSNC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSNC
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSNC
Wind History graph: SNC
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT 1.23 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:05 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:42 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT 1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 10:44 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT 1.23 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:05 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:42 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT 1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 10:44 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.4 |
| 1 am |
| -1.7 |
| 2 am |
| -1.6 |
| 3 am |
| -1.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Upton, NY,
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