NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A shortwave will move across the region this evening, resulting in some showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon through late this evening. Expect scattered convection, with the best chances mainly for areas N&W of NYC. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible, however lack of focus and stabilizing marine layer to the east across the coast should limit shra/tsra activity.

Cold front/trough appears to remain stalled across western portions of the region tonight. here remains a potential for a few heavy downpours and embedded tstms to develop and move northeast across the area tonight with strengthening mid/upper support ahead of a closed low to the west, and strengthening low-level jet ahead of pre- frontal trough advecting in an increasingly sub-tropical (weak elevated instability, deep moisture and warm cloud layer, and 2"+ PWATS) environment. One forecast concern is the NWP and CAMs continue to remain mixed on location and how widespread any shra/embedded tsra activity is, with the greater potential remaining NW of NYC in vicinity of trough.

Otherwise, very warm and muggy conditions tonight, with stratus/fog development likely across much of the area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The trough over the Great Lakes continues to lift northeast into Ontario/Quebec Saturday into Saturday Night, with shortwave axis pivoting across W PA/NY Saturday Night.

Heat advisory continues for NE NJ through Saturday for second day of heat indices of 95 to 100 F. Have expanded the Heat Advisory to include Western Passaic as well as Orange and Rockland in NY. There is slightly greater coverage of 95 F heat indices likely across the region on Saturday, but not enough confidence to expand heat advisory into NYC and the remainder of the the Lower Hudson Valley.
Can not rule out parts of these areas reaching the criteria, however one concern will be the potential for additional cloud cover/shower activity which may limit temperatures a bit. Either way, expect a rather muggy day with dew points in the lower to middle 70s.

The pre-frontal trough remains stalled over the area Saturday, with the potential for a few rounds of heavy downpours and thunderstorms ahead of and along it. Sat afternoon and evening appears to be the best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, once again, mainly across NYC and points N&W.

The main threat with any storms on Saturday and saturday night will be the potential for heavy rainfall. PWATS remain above 2"+ inches.

Again one of the forecast challenges remains the differences between the NWP and CAMs which are varied in timing, location, intensity of convection. So at this point an isolated severe/flash flood threat exists on Saturday, mainly for NYC and points N&W.

Any thunderstorm activity should weaken in intensity as it slowly moves eastward towards the coast Saturday evening and Saturday night However, there is still the potential for locally heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms near the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
After analysis of some large scale numerical weather prediction models with their MSLP, surface winds, and precipitation forecasts the following features are noted. The models analyzed were the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian, although for forecasts of Monday night onward, just the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian were compared.

The models exhibit better agreement with high pressure over the area with mainly dry conditions Sunday through Sunday night. They have agreement with southerly flow across the region for early next week and more convective potential for Tuesday through Tuesday night. The models show cold front lingering nearby for Wednesday but vary more with rain from mid to late week. ECMWF particularly seems to be most aggressive with convection showing a continual cycle of shower and thunderstorm development along the front for mid to late week.

Some relatively drier dewpoints Sunday behind a cold front will have some lower heat indices forecast within the region. Forecast highs mostly in upper 80s to lower 90s with max heat indices in the lower 90s with some mid 90s for parts of the region, mostly in NE NJ. More areas in mid 90s with max heat indices forecast for Monday with relatively higher dewpoints compared to previous day. Forecast highs are mostly in the 80s for Tuesday and the rest of the days of the forecast.

Showers with mostly chance POPs return to the forecast Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the forecast. Forecast has chances of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Otherwise, thunderstorms have slight chance. Highest coverage and thunderstorm potential appear to be Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday surrounding the cold front moving and how fast it makes its way through.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A trough of low pressure slowly shifts in from the west into tonight and remains in the vicinity through Saturday before a cold front passes through Saturday night.

Mainly VFR with the exception of KGON today, and in any shra/tstms this aftn/early eve. Lowering flight categories otherwise tonight, with just about all terminals eventually IFR/LIFR.

S to SE winds around 10kt this afternoon, then S 5-10kt tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional S wind G20kt possible at KJFK until around 0z.

Chance that tempo TSRA doesn't happen late today/early evening as it might be just VCTS or just plain showers/VCSH. Additional showers possible late tonight into Saturday morning.

Timing for flight category changes tonight through Saturday morning may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR or lower conditions possible at times with continued chance of showers/tstms.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance of sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of NYC.

Wednesday: Chance of sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the ocean tonight through Saturday night as a strengthening S flow increases to 15-20kt and seas build to 4 to 6 ft. Potential for occasional Great South Bay gusts to 25 kt as well.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds Sunday through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
Isolated to scattered slow moving thunderstorms producing 1-2"/hr rainfall rates are likely this eve, primarily W&NW of NYC. Primary threat is for minor/poor drainage flooding, with an isolated flash flood threat.

Approaching shortwave and slow moving frontal boundary crossing tonight into Saturday night will bring potential for localized 1- 2"/hr rainfall rates with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Localized flash flood threat exists for the area from any training convection during this timeframe, with the threat maximized across NYC/NJ metro and points N&W during peak heating Sat aft/eve.

Model precipitable waters show an increase up to near 2.2 to 2.4 inches Tuesday into Tuesday night. With cold front moving in, there will be a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There will be a chance for flooding with widespread minor flooding potential as well as a low percentage probability for localized flash flooding.

Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate to high risk for rip current development along NYC/LI ocean beaches today with a combo of 3-4ft S wind wave and 2 ft E/SE swell. The high risk is for W LI and NYC beaches this aft/eve due to enhanced seabreeze formation and large tidal range.

There is a high risk of rip currents for all NYC and LI ocean beaches on Saturday as S wind waves continues to build to 5 ft, with continued 2 ft E/SE swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ067-069.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-178- 179.
High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.