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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenport, NY

July 6, 2024 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 5:37 AM   Moonset 9:31 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 334 Am Edt Sat Jul 6 2024

Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Mon - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 334 Am Edt Sat Jul 6 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenport, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 061202 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 802 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
***Key Points***

1.) Scattered showers/thunderstorms are likely this morning around daybreak, particularly for areas north & west of NYC with isolated instances of flashing flooding possible.

2.) Heat Advisories have been hoisted today across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 98- 100F.

3.) Showers and thunderstorms may re-develop this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for interior locations, but confidence is low in coverage and timing. For now, leaning toward isolated thunderstorms.

A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger over the area through this morning and into the afternoon before a weak cold front approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight. This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north which weakens through Saturday into Saturday night. The environment today is weakly-forced, making the timing and location of showers and thunderstorms hard to pinpoint. However, a few rounds of showers and/or thunderstorms appear to occur based on the latest 00Z guidance from CAMs and subsequent runs of the HRRR and RRFS.

This morning, scattered to numerous showers are possible for areas north and west of NYC with all CAMs in agreement of occurrence, likely stemming from a subtle shortwave modeled by some regional and global guidance that brings pieces of mid-level energy into the region. Location and coverage in areas east of NYC is harder to determine, as not all CAMs agree, but coverage may be more spotty, there. These showers and thunderstorms have already initiated in eastern PA continue to expand in coverage as they track eastward. The west- to- east window for showers and thunderstorms this morning appears to be around 4am to 11am, give or take an hour or so. SPC's Mesoanalysis keeps an MLCAPE environment of at least 500 J/kg across the CWA with a higher concentration of 1000 J/kg west of NYC. MUCAPEs go even higher around 1500-2000 across the area. Effective Bulk Shear appears to to be strongest this morning in areas west and north of NYC, so gusty to isolated instances of damaging wind can not be completely ruled out. PWATs are currently between 2-2.2" inches on SPC's Mesoanalysis and remain elevated through the morning on 00Z and 03Z CAMs. 00Z HRRR also brings a 20-30% chance of >1"/hr in areas north and west of NYC. This increases to 30-50% for the chances of >0.5"/hr. Moderate to heavy downpours may be possible in these thunderstorms, but they should be moving quick enough to limit any flash flood concern to isolated areas.
Currently they are moving at about 30-35kts. Primarily nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding concerns with these morning showers/thunderstorms.

Patchy fog is also being observed this morning and may continue until mid-morning.

A break in the rain is expected mid/late morning into the afternoon.
There is some question to how much clearing occurs, but currently keeping partly cloudy skies around for the afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, dewpoints climb into the mid/low-70s with actual highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W of NYC.
The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs. Heat Advisories have been hoisted today across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 98-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be more on the marginal side, but for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.

Confidence in the details of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is lower, but currently expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Its possible they may be scattered in interior areas. The latest CAMS show MLCAPE and MUCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg for Nassau Co, Fairfield Co, and all points west. This area will be the main focus for any stronger thunderstorms that occur with overlapping values of 30-45 kts of 0-6km Bulk Shear. PWATs will be dropping below 2 inches around this time frame, so heavier downpours, while still possible, are less likely to occur compared to this morning's round.

After about 9 or 10pm, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas, but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight lows will drop into the low/mid-70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The stalled cold front will dissipate on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the west under upper-level ridging.
Southerly flow will continue with another warm day expected as highs reach the mid-80s to low-90s again. Heat index values are expected to be right around 95 for much of the area on Sunday which may or may not require another Heat Advisory, depending on location. These heat indices are much lower for areas of the NYC metro and areas N & W of NYC compared to Saturday's because of somewhat drier air behind the front. We'll have a break from rain chances starting on Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
After analysis of some large scale numerical weather prediction models with their MSLP, surface winds, and precipitation forecasts the following features are noted. The models analyzed were the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian, although for forecasts of Monday night onward, just the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian were compared.

The models exhibit better agreement with high pressure over the area. They have agreement with southerly flow across the region for early next week and more convective potential for Tuesday through Tuesday night. The models show cold front lingering nearby for Wednesday but vary more with rain from mid to late week. ECMWF particularly seems to be most aggressive with convection showing a continual cycle of shower and thunderstorm development along the front for mid to late week.

More areas in mid 90s with max heat indices forecast for Monday with relatively higher dewpoints compared to previous day.
Forecast highs are mostly in the 80s for Tuesday and the rest of the days of the forecast.

Showers with mostly chance POPs return to the forecast Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the forecast. Forecast has chances of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Otherwise, thunderstorms have slight chance. Highest coverage and thunderstorm potential appear to be Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday surrounding the cold front moving and how fast it makes its way through.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A slow moving frontal system impacts the terminals through tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will lift NE across the terminals over the next 1-3 hours

VFR conditions are forecast to return to all terminals by early this afternoon with the exception of KGON where low clouds/fog are likely to persist into tonight. It is possible that the eastern terminals, KISP and KBDR hold on to ceilings longer than currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into this evening. There is low confidence at any one terminal.

MVFR/IFR conditions may work back as far west as KISP and KBDR tonight due to weak flow and residual moisture.

S-SE winds under 10 kt this morning, become S-SW and increase to 10-15 kt by afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 kt possible near the coast this morning and then across the interior this afternoon. Winds will go light and variable overnight as a weak cold front moves across the area.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely for improving flight categories this morning as well as for the timing of showers and thunderstorms later today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions possible in the morning at the eastern terminals, especially at KGON.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of NYC.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the ocean tonight through Saturday night as a strengthening S flow increases to 15-20kt and seas build to 4 to 6 ft.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds Sunday through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
Approaching shortwave and slow moving frontal boundary crossing this morning into Saturday night will bring potential for localized 1- 2"/hr rainfall rates with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The better chance will be SAturday morning, with more isolated convection expected in the afternoon. Localized flash flood threat exists for the area from any training convection during this timeframe, with the threat maximized across NYC/NJ metro and points N&W.

Model precipitable waters show an increase up to near 2.2 to 2.4 inches Tuesday into Tuesday night. With cold front moving in, there will be a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There will be a chance for flooding with widespread minor flooding potential as well as a low percentage probability for localized flash flooding.

Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High risk of rip currents until 9pm Saturday evening for all ocean beaches.

Building onshore swell observed at ocean buoys around 4 ft with wave period of 6 to 10 seconds going into this evening.

Ocean seas are expected to continue to build Saturday to near 5 ft and then slightly subside Sunday to near 4 ft. Onshore winds will be relatively higher Saturday along the ocean beaches with wind speeds of around 10 to 15 mph. The winds become more variable in direction and decrease in speed for Sunday.

These factors will result in the high risk of rip currents remaining at all ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island through Saturday and into the first half of Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents forecast for the ocean beaches on Sunday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-176>178.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi55 min 73°F 67°F29.86
NLHC3 24 mi55 min 73°F 29.89
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi55 minSSW 8G8.9 74°F 71°F29.89
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi55 minE 5.1G7 73°F 73°F29.81


Wind History for No Ports station near this location
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSNC CHESTER,CT 21 sm29 minSW 059 smMostly Cloudy73°F73°F100%29.91
KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY 23 sm19 minS 051/2 smOvercast Mist 73°F73°F100%29.90
KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT 23 sm28 minSSE 091 smOvercast Mist 72°F72°F100%29.88
KMTP MONTAUK,NY 24 sm30 minvar 04--75°F72°F89%29.90


Tide / Current for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
12
am
-1.4
1
am
-1.7
2
am
-1.6
3
am
-1.3
4
am
-0.8
5
am
0.1
6
am
0.9
7
am
1.2
8
am
1.2
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.1
11
am
-0.6
12
pm
-1.2
1
pm
-1.5
2
pm
-1.4
3
pm
-1.1
4
pm
-0.6
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
1.2
7
pm
1.6
8
pm
1.7
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
-0.2


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Upton, NY,




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