Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM Moonrise 11:44 PM   Moonset 9:58 AM

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LEZ163 Expires:202406262015;;964668 Fzus61 Kcle 261347 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 947 am edt Wed jun 26 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A cold front will cross the lake today. High pressure 30.00 inches will build behind the cold front for Thursday. This high will shift east on Friday and allow a warm front to cross the lake. Another cold front will approach the lake for Saturday and cross the lake by Sunday. High pressure 30.10 inches will enter the great lakes region Sunday night.
lez162-163-262015- detroit river lt. To maumee bay oh to reno beach oh beyond 5nm offshoreline to us-canadian border- reno beach to the islands oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 947 am edt Wed jun 26 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - North winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 261402 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1002 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves southeast across the area this afternoon.
High pressure will return on Thursday and Friday before another low pressure system impacts the area on Saturday. High pressure builds back in Sunday through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
9:45 AM Update...
Made major adjustments to PoPs to account for the latest model guidance. No rain expected through about 15Z before the area of showers and thunderstorms over OH/IN moves in from the south.
More substantial development of thunderstorms is expected after 17Z ahead of a cold front that is approaching from the northwest. SPC has expanded the marginal risk area to include our entire forecast area and the slight has expanded westward to include the southeast half of the area from Meadville, PA to south of Cleveland to Mansfield, OH.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure centered over southern Quebec will continue to move east moving a strong cold front across the area this afternoon into the evening. Currently the area lies within the warm sector of the low, allowing for moisture content to gradually increase along with temperatures as lows this morning have only dropped into the 70s. This afternoon, as the front approaches from the west, a shortwave trough will push south across the region. This mid-level energy coupled with ideal placement in the right entrance region of the upper level jet will provide enhanced support through the atmosphere for storm development. At the low levels, strong frontogenetic forcing coupled with modeled MUCAPE values near 2000 J/kg and wind shear values between 20-25 knots will assist in sustaining updrafts. The best timing of all these ingredient to come together and create strong to severe storms will be between 17-22Z. To highlight this threat, SPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather along a line extending from Cleveland, OH to Bucyrus, OH and areas east. The primary hazard concerns are strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
WPC has also issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk ERO for the potential of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns in areas that receive multiple rounds of rain. High temperatures today will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Areas that receive precipitation will quickly cool, so the areas that should receive the warmest temperatures will be across the eastern counties.

The cold front will continue to track to the southeast of the area tonight allowing for high pressure to begin to build east and all showers and thunderstorms to end by Thursday morning.
High pressure will remain dominant on Thursday, keeping conditions dry with mostly sunny skies returning. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s with slightly cooler highs on Thursday as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period will start quiet on Thursday night with high pressure across the region with a clear, dry air mass and northwest flow aloft. Temperatures should take a good diurnal nose dive with lows in the 50s and even some upper 40s, if full decoupling occurs. The surface high will shift east for Friday and a warm front will lift north across the area and allow for southerly return flow and moisture advecting back into the region. High temperatures will be back around normal into the 80s. Still do not believe that any rain will get going during the daytime hours with dew points not getting into the 60s until late afternoon. By Friday night, some scattered showers and storms will be possible with the isentropic lift and the increasing moisture across the region. In addition, a cold front will move closer to the area and some showers and storms could start arriving from the northwest. Saturday and Saturday night should have widespread showers and storms with the cold front moving through the area and will go with categorical PoPs, as the pattern has repeated for several cycles. There could be some conditional threat, depending on how unstable the atmosphere is ahead of the main front. If showers and storms have large coverage on Friday night into Saturday, then temperatures may be more subdued and left a more generic shower and storm threat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday and Monday appear quiet with high pressure across the region behind a cold front. Temperatures will be below normal both days with highs mostly in the 70s, as a dry air mass in northwest flow takes over. A reinforcing cold front will cross the area on Monday morning and there could be some stray showers on Sunday night with that. However, most of the ensemble members keep the area dry and will retain the persistence forecast with no PoPs. High pressure shifts east for Tuesday and the upper ridge enters. This will allow for temperatures to surge back into the 80s and better moisture returns to the region. A low pressure system over the Upper Midwest will extend a cold front toward the area on Tuesday night and have some lightly increasing PoPs through the end of the period.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Widespread VFR conditions will continue over the next few hours before showers and thunderstorms begin to impact the far western terminals late this morning, ultimately becoming more widespread and pushing east this afternoon into the evening as a cold front pushes through. Conditions are expected to diminish to MVFR and possibly IFR within these showers and thunderstorms as heavy rain is expected. Opted to handle these diminished conditions in TEMPOs for all terminals, but will need to continue to monitor how well organized these storms become. Primary concerns with thunderstorms today will be locally strong winds and large hail. As the aforementioned cold front pushes east tonight, conditions should rebound to widespread VFR, although some areas across the eastern counties may see patchy fog develop, but with low confidence have opted to not include in this TAF.

Winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots will persist through today before becoming light and variable after sunset. By the end of the period, winds will gain a more northerly component and gradually increase to 5-10 knots. Locally higher winds are possible today in stronger thunderstorms that develop and impact terminals.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

MARINE
A cold front will cross the lake today. Southwest flow will briefly increase during the daytime hours before flow shifts to the northwest tonight. Overall, the onshore flow tonight into Thursday appears weak and will likely not generate enough waves to merit any marine headlines. Flow will become lighter and northerly with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region, as high pressure moves east. A cold front will cross the lake on Saturday. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the front and could approach the need for a headline. The front will cross the lake by Sunday and northwest flow will take over the basin. This onshore flow should be stronger than tonight's and there could be some notable wave generation to allow for at least a moderate swimming risk. High pressure will build into the region early next week and reduce the winds on the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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