Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:55 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 127 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 127 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore today. A weak frontal system will then approach from the west tonight into Thursday, stalling over the area Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system follows for the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 031935 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remains situated offshore tonight. A trough of low pressure moves into the region on Thursday and stalls over the area Thursday night into Friday morning. A warm front then lifts through Friday afternoon into night, with a trailing cold front approaching Saturday. The front stalls and weakens near the region late this weekend, before potentially lifting back north Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
High pressure offshore will maintain a light S-SW flow over the region, promoting muggier conditions than what we've had for the past couple of nights. Can't rule out a shower late at night north and west of NYC with a weak shortwave approaching from the west.
Lows around 70 in NYC metro with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weakening cold front and pre-frontal trough approach on Thursday.
The cold front dissipates before reaching the forecast area, however the trough should move in during the afternoon, then settle over us at night. SBCAPEs, primarily west of the Hudson River, may build to 500-1500 J/kg in the afternoon. With the surface trough, convergence with sea breezes, and support from a shortwave aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours, followed by more isolated shower activity overnight with diminished instability. Not anticipating severe thunderstorms at this point with based on mid level lapse rates and fairly weak bulk shear, but strong gusts may still be possible mainly along the western fringe of the forecast area with the best combination of CAPE and shear.

PWATS increase to 2.0-2.25 inches by the end of the day, but the area and magnitude HRRR probs of 3"/3hr rainfall of 10 to 30 percent have shrunk and remain confined to SE PA. So while localized minor/poor drainage will be possible with the fairly slow forward motion of any storms, the flash flooding threat still looks minimal.

Highs generally in the 80s Thursday with perhaps a couple of spots in NE NJ reaching 90. Warm and muggy conditions for Thursday night with some late night stratus/fog development. Lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

It appears that the surface trough shifts slightly Friday morning over or near the forecast area before lifting north as a warm front later in the day in response to strengthening low pressure shifting NE through the Great Lakes. Given the uncertainty regarding where the boundary begins its shift to the north, really can't rule out a shower at any part of the day. Perhaps better chances over the eastern zones in the morning with a shortwave still in the vicinity, then away from the coast during the afternoon as modest CAPE builds.
Highs again mostly in the 80s with some NJ spots reaching 90.

One other thing that will need to be monitored is the potential of heat advisory criteria being met mainly in parts of NE NJ. Did not have enough coverage to go with an advisory for Thursday-Friday, however there is a better chance of an advisory being needed for the Friday-Saturday period. See the long term section regarding Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A hot and humid summer pattern persists in the long term, featuring a longwave trough over the Central US and a Western Atlantic ridge, with well defined disturbances moving through the flow aloft Fri night and again on Tuesday.

First disturbance lifts a warm front through to start the period Friday night into Saturday, bringing the potential of showers and thunderstorms as it does so. Global guidance progs PWATs increasing to over two inches by Saturday per global guidance, and will bring the risk for torrential downpours with any potential convection. WPC has much of the region outlined in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. CSU's MLP has similar output, though with a bit higher risk north and west of NYC into the lower Hudson Valley.
All this said, any flood threat outside training convection is likely localized in coverage. Also given the warm, moist environment and modest unidirectional shear, there is potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, with isolated damaging wind gusts the primary hazard.

In addition to the rain potential, an abundantly moist air mass and temperatures in the 80s will offer a hot and humid feel to the afternoon. It's possible heat indices could approach 100F in parts of NE NJ, and this will need to be monitored should a heat headline be needed, especially given the potential on Friday for these values to reach the mid 90s in this same area. Deep layer moisture shunts to the south and east by Sunday as the front washes out over the region, bringing lower humidity and drier conditions for into early next week. Surface dew pts fall from the mid 70s on Saturday back down into the 60s Sunday. This should allow Sunday to be the more comfortable day of the weekend, though still hot, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and perhaps the lower 90s around metro NYC and NE NJ.

Conditions remain hot but dry on Monday, before the next disturbance looks to arrive late Monday into Tuesday, once again bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Largely stayed close to national blended guidance for this update.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR as high pressure along the coast gradually works farther offshore through this evening with a weak frontal system approaching late tonight. Some BKN cigs possible late tonight but still VFR.
Will introduce Prob30 for TSRA starting 20z Thu but there is high uncertainty of coverage at this time frame. Best chance appears to be N and W of city terminals initially before decaying across the terminals during the evening hours.

Regarding wind, coastal sea breezes 10-15kt weaken later this evening but not before occasional gusts 20kt through early evening.
Mainly S-SW winds 10-15 kt Thursday with coastal sea breezes redeveloping.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected through most of the TAF period but amendments are possible later Thu afternoon in or around TSRA.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z Thursday: MVFR or lower cond possible with any afternoon or nighttime showers/tstms. IFR cigs possible late at night at the Long Island/CT terminals.

Friday and Saturday: MVFR or lower cond possible at times with continued chance of showers/tstms.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Prevailing sub-SCA conditions through Friday. However, marginal SCA gusts possible into this eve as well as Thu aft/eve at the entrance to NY Harbor and western Great South Bay with coastal jet development. Ocean seas may approach 5 ft in this area Thursday.

SCA conditions may develop on the ocean Sat afternoon/night as long fetch S flow increases to 15-20 kt, with a few gusts close to 25 kt.
This should builds seas to 5 ft during this time before conditions subside Sunday AM. Sub SCA conditions then expected on all waters thereafter into early next week.

HYDROLOGY
Isolated slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours producing 2"/hr rainfall rates are possible Thurs aft/eve, mainly west of the Hudson River. The threat is low and isolated at this point. Should any flooding occur, it would most likely be minor/poor drainage. For Friday, the flooding type once again will most likely be minor, and this time including the entire forecast area.

A disturbance and slow moving frontal boundary approach Friday night into Saturday and will bring the potential for torrential downpours with any associated convection. Any flood threat outside training convection is likely localized in coverage, with minor nuisance flooding the most likely solution at this point.



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate risk for rip current development along local Atlantic facing beaches today and Thursday with a combo of building southerly wind wave and 1 to 2 ft E/SE swell.

Rip risk could become locally high for W LI and NYC beaches in the late aft/eve both days with enhanced seabreeze formation and large tidal range.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hackensack
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Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:43 AM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hackensack, Hackensack River, New Jersey, Tide feet

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:21 AM EDT     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT     2.07 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River), New York Current, knots

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