Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM   Moonset 6:32 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 305 Pm Pdt Tue Jun 4 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A front is pushing onshore. High pressure builds over the waters by midweek for more settled weather and return to northerly winds.

FXUS66 KPQR 042204 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 304 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and gusty winds will diminish across the area this evening as a frontal system dissipates and high pressure begins to build in from the south. This will bring increasing temperatures through the end of the week, with temperatures peaking around 90 degrees on Friday. Above normal temperatures then persist into early next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday Night...Radar and observations from around the area show numerous to scattered showers and gusty south-southwest winds ongoing as a front pushes across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon, with deep onshore flow in place over the region anchored by an unseasonably strong upper level jet focused on Vancouver Island. Despite the blustery conditions by early June standards, a pattern change will soon commence and bring more summerlike weather going forward as high pressure starts to build northward from California, causing the upper level jet to buckle and shift farther north into Canada. Will see winds diminish and showers begin to taper off across the area this evening as the front dissipates, with a few showers lingering in the Cascades through early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will bring much more pleasant conditions as the ridge begins to take shape east of the Cascades, with increasing subsidence ushering in plenty of sunshine and sending high temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms in the low 70s in the interior valleys including the Portland metro.
Temperatures will continue their upward trajectory on Thursday as models show good agreement on 850 mb temps around 13-15 C, corresponding to highs in the low 80s. Light north-northeast low level flow in response to a strengthening thermal trough may even allow some coastal communities to reach the low 70s by Thursday. /CB

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...Temperatures still look to peak on Friday as the ridge continues to strengthen east of the Cascades, with the latest guidance holding steady with maximum temps in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior lowlands.
This is reflected by NBM probabilistic guidance ranging from around a 60 percent chance to reach 90 degrees in the Portland/Vancouver metro to only around a 10 percent chance in Eugene. The larger change is for Saturday as models have continues to push the ridge a little farther east and open the door to stronger onshore flow earlier than had previously been depicted. As a result, high temperatures for Saturday have continued to trend towards the lower end of the guidance envelope, with the NBM now showing only a 15 percent chance to reach 90 in the Portland metro and less than 5 percent in most other locations. That said, temperatures will still be solidly above seasonal norms on Saturday as highs climb into the 80s again. The other forecast concern for Friday and Saturday as will be the potential for a few thunderstorms along the Oregon Cascades as southwest flow aloft allows a few embedded disturbances and potential some enhanced mid level moisture to clip the area. The good news is that south-southwest steering flow would tend to keep any activity that does develop confined to the immediate crest or points east.

Models diverge somewhat on how the ridge evolves beyond Saturday as a trough approaches from the Pacific, with some solutions directing this energy north into Canada while others try to develop a split flow pattern and shunt some energy south towards CA as a cutoff low. In terms of sensible weather impacts, expect mostly dry conditions to persist across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington with temperatures on Sunday dropping a few degrees into the upper 70s or low 80s but generally remaining above seasonal norms. WPC ensemble clusters show general agreement on maintaining high pressure over the Pacific Northwest through early next week, while differing on precise magnitude and placement. Temperatures are therefore expected to remain above normal through the period, but with a wider range of outcomes. This is reflected by NBM probabilistic guidance which shows a 20-25 percent chance to reach 90 degrees and around a 10 percent chance to reach 95 degrees throughout the Willamette Valley next Tuesday. However, the 25th percentile solution would result in temperatures inly in the mid 70s on Tuesday. Generally speaking, the pattern favors a continuation of warm and dry weather through the extended, but with less confidence on where high temperatures will ultimately land. /CB

AVIATION
A frontal system continues to push across the region today with strong westerly flow aloft. Light rain will gradually dissipate through the day. Expect low MVFR to IFR conditions along the coast to gradually lift later this afternoon, becoming a mix of high end MVFR to VFR by 06Z Wednesday. Guidance continues to suggest there is a 40-80% chance of MVFR through this afternoon with predominately VFR becoming more likely after 00Z Wednesday across northern parts of the forecast area. Though, with the slowly moving front, MVFR CIGS are more likely to hang on longer through the southern and possibly central Willamette Valley, including KEUG where probs increase to 60-80% after 00Z and linger there through 15Z Wednesday. Southerly winds continue to gust this afternoon to around 25-30 kt along the coast, but are expected to quickly ease becoming southwest once the front moves onshore by 22-23Z this afternoon. Expect breezy south to southwest winds with gusts to 20-25 kt continue through this afternoon across the Willamette Valley.

PDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR as of 20Z this afternoon. Chances for MVFR continue around 70-80% between through 22Z Tuesday.
Predominately VFR becomes more likely again after 03Z Wednesday.
Breezy southwest winds expected with gusts up to 20-25 kt through this afternoon. Then, once the front pushes through, winds are expected to ease below 10 kt becoming more west to northwest.
/DH

MARINE
A frontal system will continue to slowly push onshore today, sliding south along the coast. Southwest winds around 15-25 kt continue across much of the coastal waters this afternoon, then are expected to gradually turn northwest and ease further overnight. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory as seas are expected to remain elevated through Wednesday night.

Seas remain steep and choppy at around 10 to 12 feet through tonight. An incoming northwesterly swell will likely cause seas to build to around 12 to 14 feet late tonight through Wednesday.

High pressure builds midweek for more settled conditions. Expect a summertime pattern with high pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast, bringing northerly winds gusting to 25 kt at times through the end of the week. Seas around 8 to 10 ft on Thursday likely to subside to around 6 ft on Friday. /DH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Portland, OR,