NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Main concern of the near term period will be late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as the remnants of Beryl begins to interact with a frontal boundary across the region. Heavy rain will be possible with this initial surge of precipitation, in addition to a low chance for a tornado along a lifting warm front, mainly between 2 AM and 8 AM late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Low-level SRH and low LCLs appear favorable for rotating showers/storms, though confidence is low on updraft strength and available instability given the overnight timing. More details on the heavy rain/severe potential for late Wednesday morning/afternoon associated with the remnants of Beryl will be discussed in the below section.

Otherwise, mainly quiet weather is anticipated on Tuesday as clouds begin to thicken from the southwest, in anticipation of the arrival of the remnants of Beryl. Weak isentropic lift ahead of Beryl could allow for some light precipitation Tuesday afternoon, with heavier precipitation becoming more likely along the western periphery of the baroclinic zone across NW OH Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The remnant surface low pressure of Beryl will be tracking through the Upper Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes region on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. This system will become swept up with a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes region mid week. Short term model guidance is showing that an initial round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area early Wednesday morning with a warm front and the surge of tropical moisture ahead of the remnants of Beryl. There may be a brief break in the rain chances later in the morning on Wednesday before another round of convection flares up midday into the afternoon. The better potential for the round of convection will be for the eastern half of the CWA or for NEOH and NWPA. The latest NAM forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg Wednesday afternoon with impressive speed and directional shear yielding 50 knots of deep layer effective bulk shear and curved hodographs. There will be a marginal threat for severe weather with the convection predawn Wednesday morning associated with the warm front and the convection that develops Wednesday afternoon. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts as well as the potential for a tornado or two. Given the very rich tropical airmass and moisture associated with this system, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and a limited flash flooding threat. Average QPF through Wednesday night will be between 1 and 2 inches with isolated amounts up to 3 inches.

Mid level dry air will punch in from the southwest late Wednesday evening which should help end our rain chances from west to east.
Weak high pressure moves in late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Slight POPs may linger downwind of Lake Erie over the Snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA on Thursday. Temperatures will be with in a few degrees of seasonable averages for early July.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A broad mid and upper level trough will linger across the Great Lakes region later this week. The mid level pattern flattens becoming more west-northwesterly over the area as a ridge of high pressure builds from the western CONUS into the Central Plains this weekend. This weather pattern may favor some "ridge riders" coming over the ridge and down through the Great Lakes region towards the end of the week into early next week. We will be on the outskirts of the heat dome building over the western and central CONUS.
Temperatures will slowly climb through the 80s into the lower 90s by this weekend. Will mention some scattered chance POPs through the weekend. It will feel like Summer with hot and humid weather.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
As high pressure continues into New England today, a generally dry airmass will affect the region. High-level cirrus will persist today with mid-level scattered clouds and VFR conditions.

Winds will be predominately southwesterly and range from 3 to 8 knots, becoming slightly weaker overnight at 2 to 5 knots. Mid- level clouds around 10kft will increase from the west late tonight into Tuesday. An isolated shower is possible near TOL after 3Z, though confidence is low.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday afternoon in isolated showers. Non-VFR expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl move into the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms throughout the CWA Non-VFR may persist through Thursday in isolated showers.

MARINE
Quiet weather is expected on Lake Erie through Tuesday with light winds, but the remnants of Beryl approaching from the southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday will lead to increasing winds and waves.
Easterly winds will increase to 10-15 knots Tuesday night, with ENE winds of 15-20 knots Wednesday. This will build 2 to 4 foot waves in the western and central basins. We may be closer to Small Craft advisory conditions by Wednesday. Winds will shift to the NW Wednesday night behind the remnant low as speeds stay around 10-20 knots. Waves will still be around 2 to 4 foot waves into the central and eastern basins before winds turn W and decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday. Lighter winds from the southwest around 5-10 knots will return by Friday into the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.