NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Surface high pressure over western New York will continue east to New England today. The airmass will remain dry with increasing high level clouds. Temperatures at 925mb warm by 1-1.5C from yesterday with highs forecast to also trend upwards into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The pressure gradient remains weak enough that lake breezes are once again forecast to develop along the northeast lakeshore so look for highs to occur by midday in those areas.

The upper level trough on water vapor imagery approaching the Midwest will only make slow eastward progress through the near term.
Meanwhile we will continue to watch the remnants of Beryl move north across eastern Texas. Models depict a good piece of shortwave energy riding northeast ahead of the trough tonight with prolonged southwesterly flow and moisture advection increasing, especially into western portions of the area. Kept a low pop in the forecast across NW Ohio after about 4 AM tonight. A slow moving cold front does push south across lower Michigan on Tuesday but the better frontal forcing does not really get into here until Tuesday night. We do see some tightening of the baroclinic zone as Beryl approaches and will carry a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area Tuesday afternoon. The best low level convergence may be across NE Ohio where the lake breeze may be slightly enhanced by winds starting to veer in advance of tropical remnants. Instability does range from 500-1200J/kg but the lack of forcing is still expected to limit coverage.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The remnants of Beryl will be the big story of the midweek period, with the potential for some much needed rainfall to help ease ongoing drought conditions, as well as a few strong to severe storms. However, some uncertainty in the exact track and therefore impacts to the local area remain.

Regarding the details, Beryl is making landfall on the central Texas coast as a category 1 hurricane this morning. A large mid/upper longwave trough to the north of Beryl stretches from southern Canada through the central and southern Plains in between strong mid/upper ridges over the Intermountain West and SE CONUS. This pattern is creating broad southwesterly deep layer flow from the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts through the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes which will steer the remnants toward the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. The key interaction between Beryl's remnant low and the broad trough will be an embedded mid/upper shortwave that will lift from the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into the vicinity of southern Ontario and Lake Huron by Wednesday night before departing through eastern Ontario and Quebec Thursday and Thursday night. This shortwave track is fairly consistent among deterministic and ensemble guidance, but timing in which it picks up and phases with Beryl's remnant low remain a little uncertain which results in displacements of the surface low track either a bit farther west or a bit farther east. Consensus points toward the surface low (Beryl's remnant low) tracking through NW Ohio Wednesday and Wednesday evening, but as stated, there is room for it to be a bit farther west or east. A track through NW Ohio would put the heaviest and steadiest swath of QPF across Indiana and Michigan, and this is reflected in WPC QPF forecasts, but given deep tropical moisture advecting northward Tuesday night and Wednesday, all of the CWA will see at least some rain, with pockets of heavier rain wherever convection can develop.

As Beryl's remnant surface low begins to deepen and lift out of the Mississippi Valley Tuesday night in response to phasing with the mid/upper shortwave, the weak frontal boundary draped across the region will lift back north as a warm front. Deep moisture advection with PWATs exceeding the daily record per the NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Table (over 2 inches) will undergo isentropic ascent along and north of the retreating warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, likely resulting in a band of moderate to heavy rain lifting across the region. This should give all areas some rain before we get into the warm sector and attendant dry slot Wednesday afternoon, so have likely PoPs spreading northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Coverage of precip is the biggest question mark Wednesday afternoon and evening in the warm sector as the surface low lifts into NW Ohio and continues to deepen. Pattern recognition suggests scattered coverage along with peaks of sunshine, and that could create a problem with scattered strong to severe convection developing in response to diurnal destabilization. The latest NAM forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/Kg Wednesday afternoon, and over 2000 J/Kg SBCAPE along with impressive speed and directional shear yielding 50 knots of deep layer effective bulk shear and curved hodographs. This makes sense given the circulation nearby, so odds appear to be increasing for the initiation of deep convection Wednesday afternoon and evening that could rotate, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA where the best destabilization is expected. LCL heights will easily be below 1000 m given the moist environment, so a few tornadoes are possible.
The SWODY3 marginal risk looks reasonable for NE Ohio and NW PA, and will need to see the ultimate track of the surface low to determine how much coverage of severe storms there could be, but again, odds are increasing for at least a few rotating storms. Any convection will contain torrential rainfall rates Wednesday afternoon and evening with PWATs still around 2 inches and deep, warm cloud layers, and this could cause rate driven flash flooding wherever the convection develops. Moderate (D1) drought conditions continue up the I-71 corridor from roughly Mansfield to Cleveland, but some areas to the west and east of there have improved over the past 2 weeks. Given the likelihood for scattered coverage Wednesday, can't promise that all areas will see a lot of rain, but everyone should see enough to somewhat ease the dryness. High rainfall rates could still cause localized flooding in the drought areas.

As the low exits across Ontario Wednesday night and Thursday, the trailing cold front will sweep across the region allowing for drying from west to east, but wraparound moisture and a lingering surface trough will keep a few scattered showers going through Thursday, but no more heavy rain is expected. Surface ridging will finally build in Thursday night for completely dry conditions.

Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 Tuesday night and mid to upper 60s Wednesday night and low to mid 60s Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Broad mid/upper troughing lingering across the Great Lakes Friday will slowly lift out Saturday and Sunday allowing the massive heat ridge over the Intermountain West to expand east into the Plains and Midwest. Some degree of WNW flow looks to linger across the Great Lakes through the weekend keeping the highest heat out toward the Plains, but there will certainly be a warming trend Friday through Sunday. The old frontal boundary lingering near the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic could bring some widely scattered diurnal convection Friday and Saturday, but most areas will stay dry with the increasing heights aloft. Will need to watch for some convection spilling over the ridge in the WNW flow by Sunday as a frontal boundary sets up across the lakes on the NE periphery of the heat, but kept PoPs at slight chance this far out.

Highs in the low/mid 80s Friday will warm into the mid/upper 80s Saturday and upper 80s/low 90s Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
High pressure will move to New England today while continuing to influence the region. The airmass is generally dry with increasing cirrus(high cloud) and VFR conditions. Winds will be light and variable at TAF issuance, then southwesterly at 5-7 knots after 15Z. The exception is near Lake Erie where CLE/ERI and eventually YNG will experience a wind shift to the north.
Light winds are expected again tonight. Moisture will increase in NW Ohio after 06Z with ceilings lowering. Can not entirely rule out an isolated shower reaching TOL before the end of the TAF period but the likelihood is too low to include in the forecast.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Non-VFR becoming more likely in widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lingering non-VFR is possible on Thursday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie today and Tuesday with light winds, but the remnants of Beryl approaching from the southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday will lead to increasing winds and waves. E winds will increase to 10-15 knots Tuesday night, with ENE winds of 15-20 knots Wednesday. This will build 2 to 4 foot waves in the western and central basins, so Small Craft headlines may be needed by Wednesday. Winds will shift to the NW Wednesday night behind the remnant low as speeds stay around 15-20 knots, and this will push the 2 to 4 foot waves into the central and eastern basins before winds turn W and decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday. SW winds will then decrease to 5-10 knots by Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.