Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Suttons Bay, MI
July 3, 2024 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 9:25 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM Moonset 7:05 PM |
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 247 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 031837 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Pleasant 4th of July expected.
- Showers and storms are expected to continue at times this weekend and next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Cold front responsible for last nights and this mornings showers has exited off into Lake Huron...made to do so by broad mid/upper level troughing digging across the northern Conus...including the Great Lakes. Classic west synoptic flow convergence axis setting up across interior eastern upper Michigan this afternoon, with just enough remnant low level moisture to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms as we head through the remainder of this afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions with ever so slowly decreasing clouds across the majority of the Northwoods, with temperature rebounding well up into the 70s for most.
Secondary and weak surface trough expected to work into the area tonight, to be followed by low amplitude shortwave ridging and attendant weak surface high for the 4th of July.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
Lingering shower/storm concerns into tonight. Temperature and cloud trends through the forecast.
Details:
Still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact parts of eastern upper Michigan the remainder of this afternoon into early evening. Not out of the question for a stronger storm or two, with decent wind shear through the convective cloud layer and localized pockets of enhanced low level convergence. At least some potential for a few showers to develop along that secondary surface trough later this evening into northwest lower Michigan. Convective allowing guidance sounding analysis shows just enough convergence/updraft potential to perhaps slide by elevated cap.
Definitely not sold on this idea, and like the thought of just carrying some slight chance wording to cover. Otherwise, looking at dry conditions with perhaps a bit of local early morning fog.
4th of July setting up to be a pleasant one as weak high pressure settles overhead. Not completely out of the question to see an isolated afternoon shower across northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan where lake breeze generated convergence will be maximized.
A warm Holiday under generally partly cloud skies, with highs ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Longwave troughing will keep the Great Lakes Region active throughout the long-term. A deepening low pressure system will track into the region for the weekend brining showers/storms. Weak shortwave ridging builds in behind before another low pressure is expected to track into the region early next week.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Weekend Precipitation Chances: A trough and its associated low pressure will dig across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate instability and a deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the region for this weekend. As such, WPC continues to have Northern Michigan under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday.
-Next Week Precipitation Chances: Behind the aforementioned trough, a shortwave ridge will build overhead Saturday night into Sunday morning providing some relief in the active weather. However, this break will be short-lived as another low pressure tracks towards the area for the start of next week (Sunday afternoon/ Monday).
Temperatures will be cooler next week with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s for most areas through at least mid-week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Improving conditions expected this afternoon as clouds continue to decrease. Still watching for a few showers and storms to impact KCIU later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low, so will continue to cover with just vicinity wording. Any storms will bring the threat for some brief gusty winds and heavy rain. VFR conditions expected overnight and Thursday morning. Winds go light tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Pleasant 4th of July expected.
- Showers and storms are expected to continue at times this weekend and next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Cold front responsible for last nights and this mornings showers has exited off into Lake Huron...made to do so by broad mid/upper level troughing digging across the northern Conus...including the Great Lakes. Classic west synoptic flow convergence axis setting up across interior eastern upper Michigan this afternoon, with just enough remnant low level moisture to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms as we head through the remainder of this afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions with ever so slowly decreasing clouds across the majority of the Northwoods, with temperature rebounding well up into the 70s for most.
Secondary and weak surface trough expected to work into the area tonight, to be followed by low amplitude shortwave ridging and attendant weak surface high for the 4th of July.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
Lingering shower/storm concerns into tonight. Temperature and cloud trends through the forecast.
Details:
Still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact parts of eastern upper Michigan the remainder of this afternoon into early evening. Not out of the question for a stronger storm or two, with decent wind shear through the convective cloud layer and localized pockets of enhanced low level convergence. At least some potential for a few showers to develop along that secondary surface trough later this evening into northwest lower Michigan. Convective allowing guidance sounding analysis shows just enough convergence/updraft potential to perhaps slide by elevated cap.
Definitely not sold on this idea, and like the thought of just carrying some slight chance wording to cover. Otherwise, looking at dry conditions with perhaps a bit of local early morning fog.
4th of July setting up to be a pleasant one as weak high pressure settles overhead. Not completely out of the question to see an isolated afternoon shower across northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan where lake breeze generated convergence will be maximized.
A warm Holiday under generally partly cloud skies, with highs ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Longwave troughing will keep the Great Lakes Region active throughout the long-term. A deepening low pressure system will track into the region for the weekend brining showers/storms. Weak shortwave ridging builds in behind before another low pressure is expected to track into the region early next week.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Weekend Precipitation Chances: A trough and its associated low pressure will dig across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate instability and a deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the region for this weekend. As such, WPC continues to have Northern Michigan under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday.
-Next Week Precipitation Chances: Behind the aforementioned trough, a shortwave ridge will build overhead Saturday night into Sunday morning providing some relief in the active weather. However, this break will be short-lived as another low pressure tracks towards the area for the start of next week (Sunday afternoon/ Monday).
Temperatures will be cooler next week with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s for most areas through at least mid-week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Improving conditions expected this afternoon as clouds continue to decrease. Still watching for a few showers and storms to impact KCIU later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low, so will continue to cover with just vicinity wording. Any storms will bring the threat for some brief gusty winds and heavy rain. VFR conditions expected overnight and Thursday morning. Winds go light tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 16 mi | 45 min | WSW 19G | 74°F | 29.85 | |||
| 45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. | 48 mi | 35 min | S 16G | 62°F | 60°F | 3 ft | 29.84 | 61°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTVC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTVC
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTVC
Wind History graph: TVC
(wind in knots)
Gaylord, MI,
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