Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gurnee, IL
June 18, 2024 1:58 PM CDT (18:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:12 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 5:32 PM Moonset 2:31 AM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 917 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Rest of today - South winds 20 to 25 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight - South winds 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt overnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 181802 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and muggy conditions will prevail through the end of the week, although a potential for cooler conditions near the lake exist Thursday and Friday.
- Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue, though many hours will remain dry.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Through Wednesday Night:
A slug of deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is on our doorstep early this morning, and upstream RAOBs sampled PWATs just around two inches in the core of this plume. Mid-level temperatures are warmer within this moist axis, and lapse rates will correspondingly diminish, limiting the amount of instability available to elevated parcels this morning which should limit the lightning threat. Have boosted precipitation chances a bit through mid morning across the eastern half of the forecast area as a series of embedded vort maxes meander northward across the region, although any showers generally look to remain pretty light.
The core of this moist axis will begin to shift east of the region through midday and will take the greatest precipitation chances and the bulk of mid and high-level broken to overcast cloud cover with it. Suspect that we'll quickly build lower cumulus/stratocu through the morning as deepening mixing taps into the increased moisture off the surface, but don't see much of a reason why this won't eventually lift and scatter out through the afternoon. Latest thinking is we'll end up with generally partly cloudy conditions this afternoon (maybe a bit more in the way of high cloud cover in our south) which should still allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s-- especially considering the very warm start we'll have this morning. Thicknesses are actually a bit higher than they were on Monday, with the increased cloud cover and increased moisture content the main limiting factors behind warmer conditions. More blunted mixing today should mean that dewpoints don't mix out/fall as readily as they did on Monday. All of this results in a bit lower air temperatures and high dewpoints, yielding peak afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Winds will gust at times up to 35 mph this afternoon with a bit better flow available off the deck.
Expect that we'll be in a bit of a subsident regime this afternoon as the aforementioned vort/shortwave peels off to our east. We'll be uncapped again though during the afternoon, so any subtle boundaries could serve as a focus for isolated storms, but coverage is expected to be quite low.
The synoptic cold front across Minnesota and Iowa is expected to become very active this afternoon with renewed thunderstorm development. This boundary will then inch eastward overnight, and it's probable that convective outflow augments the east/southeast movement of the front, with a composite boundary sagging very close to (or in) our NW and stateline locales Wednesday morning with at least a low threat for a few showers and storms entering the CWA It's pretty difficult to pinpoint how this will play out at this range, but it seems like the front/outflow boundary will end up close enough to the CWA to support some higher midday and afternoon shower and storm coverage during the afternoon, with the greatest chances north and west of about I-55. It doesn't look like there's going to be any well-defined large scale forcing mechanism aloft though, with general height rises and the best upper jet forcing/divergence displaced across Iowa, so have capped things to scattered/chance PoPs for now. Pulse convection with a downburst wind threat would be favored with paltry mid and upper level flow/deep layer shear.
With such weak cloud-bearing flow, individual cell motions (if storms develop in the area) would be quite slow and generally northeastward, paralleling the cold front/remnant outflow boundary yielding a localized heavy rain threat. Not sure if coverage will be high enough to make this more of an issue though, but something we'll keep an eye on.
Lastly, if we aren't gunked up by convective debris cloud cover on Wednesday, temperatures should be near or perhaps a degree or two warmer than today but with generally lower dewpoints with deeper mixing again. The main exception would be in the vicinity of the front/outflow if storms fire by late- morning/midday which would result in lower high temperatures than currently advertised. Overall, heat indices once again look to top out in the mid to upper 90s with some late-day relief possible across lake-adjacent locales in NE Illinois from a lake breeze.
Carlaw
Thursday through Monday:
The primary story through the end of the week continues to be the hot and humid conditions brought by the ridge over the eastern CONUS and the periodic shower and thunderstorm chances brought by the stalled front to the northwest. Although high temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 90s through Saturday, dew points should be able to mix out each day enough to limit heat indices to the upper 90s. This keeps us below Heat Advisory criteria, however, we will continue to message heat safety through the end of this first extended period of heat this year.
On Thursday, a backdoor cold front will move down Lake Michigan and sweep across the area. Model guidance is showing a consistent signal for the front being at the doorstep of Chicago by 12Z Thursday morning (if not earlier) before advancing southwest. This timing will limit high temperatures near the lakeshore to around 80 degrees. Although highs will likely be in the 90s across much of the area, temperatures may actually fall through the afternoon hours as the front moves overhead. If the timing of this front continues to move up, then some areas further inland could also see their high temperatures limited on Thursday. The stalled cold front over Wisconsin may also sag slightly southeastward Thursday as the ridge begins to flatten out. This will bring a chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms into the northwestern CWA Thursday afternoon.
Friday looks to be a pretty quiet day, although onshore flow associated with the remnants of the backdoor cold front and a lake breeze will likely limit high temperatures along the lakeshore while the majority of the area sees highs in the low- to-mid 90s once again. Isolated showers and thunderstorms also can't be ruled out Friday afternoon, mainly in the northern portion of the CWA
The next widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the Northern Plains and an associated surface cold front pushes through the area. This cold front will bring an end to this extended period of heat and humidity. Following this frontal passage, zonal flow looks poised to return with dry conditions early next week.
Carothers
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Main Concerns:
- Gusty south-southwest winds into this evening
- Chance of TS and a northeasterly wind shift late day Wednesday into Wednesday evening at ORD and MDW
South-southwest winds (180-210 deg direction) will gust to 25-30 kt past sunset and then likely ease with only sporadic gusts after midnight. Wind direction will shift to southwest (220-240 deg) Wednesday morning with gusts in the 15-20 kt range developing by around 12z.
Late in the day Wednesday, isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TS may encroach upon the Chicago area. In addition, a cold front approaching from the north will likely cause a wind shift to northeast by/during Wednesday evening. Due to timing and coverage uncertainty regarding the TS and timing uncertainty with the anticipated wind shift, deferred any TS and wind shift inclusion in the ORD and MDW TAFs to later updates. VFR conditions can be expected through the current TAF period.
Castro
CLIMATE
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
With a high temperature of 97 degrees recorded at O'Hare Airport yesterday, Chicago broke its daily high temperature record of 96 degrees for June 17th, which was previously set in 1887 and 1957. A few additional temperature records (primarily some of the record warmest low temperatures for both Chicago and Rockford) may be threatened over the next few days.
Here are the daily high and warmest low temperature records for Chicago and Rockford for each day through Saturday, June 22nd:
Chicago --------------------------------------- Day: 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 --------------------------------------- Record High: 98 102 104 101 97 Record Warm Low: 77 78 78 74 76
Rockford --------------------------------------- Day: 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 --------------------------------------- Record High: 99 99 101 100 97 Record Warm Low: 74 76 73 71 73
Ogorek
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Wednesday night for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and muggy conditions will prevail through the end of the week, although a potential for cooler conditions near the lake exist Thursday and Friday.
- Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue, though many hours will remain dry.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Through Wednesday Night:
A slug of deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is on our doorstep early this morning, and upstream RAOBs sampled PWATs just around two inches in the core of this plume. Mid-level temperatures are warmer within this moist axis, and lapse rates will correspondingly diminish, limiting the amount of instability available to elevated parcels this morning which should limit the lightning threat. Have boosted precipitation chances a bit through mid morning across the eastern half of the forecast area as a series of embedded vort maxes meander northward across the region, although any showers generally look to remain pretty light.
The core of this moist axis will begin to shift east of the region through midday and will take the greatest precipitation chances and the bulk of mid and high-level broken to overcast cloud cover with it. Suspect that we'll quickly build lower cumulus/stratocu through the morning as deepening mixing taps into the increased moisture off the surface, but don't see much of a reason why this won't eventually lift and scatter out through the afternoon. Latest thinking is we'll end up with generally partly cloudy conditions this afternoon (maybe a bit more in the way of high cloud cover in our south) which should still allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s-- especially considering the very warm start we'll have this morning. Thicknesses are actually a bit higher than they were on Monday, with the increased cloud cover and increased moisture content the main limiting factors behind warmer conditions. More blunted mixing today should mean that dewpoints don't mix out/fall as readily as they did on Monday. All of this results in a bit lower air temperatures and high dewpoints, yielding peak afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Winds will gust at times up to 35 mph this afternoon with a bit better flow available off the deck.
Expect that we'll be in a bit of a subsident regime this afternoon as the aforementioned vort/shortwave peels off to our east. We'll be uncapped again though during the afternoon, so any subtle boundaries could serve as a focus for isolated storms, but coverage is expected to be quite low.
The synoptic cold front across Minnesota and Iowa is expected to become very active this afternoon with renewed thunderstorm development. This boundary will then inch eastward overnight, and it's probable that convective outflow augments the east/southeast movement of the front, with a composite boundary sagging very close to (or in) our NW and stateline locales Wednesday morning with at least a low threat for a few showers and storms entering the CWA It's pretty difficult to pinpoint how this will play out at this range, but it seems like the front/outflow boundary will end up close enough to the CWA to support some higher midday and afternoon shower and storm coverage during the afternoon, with the greatest chances north and west of about I-55. It doesn't look like there's going to be any well-defined large scale forcing mechanism aloft though, with general height rises and the best upper jet forcing/divergence displaced across Iowa, so have capped things to scattered/chance PoPs for now. Pulse convection with a downburst wind threat would be favored with paltry mid and upper level flow/deep layer shear.
With such weak cloud-bearing flow, individual cell motions (if storms develop in the area) would be quite slow and generally northeastward, paralleling the cold front/remnant outflow boundary yielding a localized heavy rain threat. Not sure if coverage will be high enough to make this more of an issue though, but something we'll keep an eye on.
Lastly, if we aren't gunked up by convective debris cloud cover on Wednesday, temperatures should be near or perhaps a degree or two warmer than today but with generally lower dewpoints with deeper mixing again. The main exception would be in the vicinity of the front/outflow if storms fire by late- morning/midday which would result in lower high temperatures than currently advertised. Overall, heat indices once again look to top out in the mid to upper 90s with some late-day relief possible across lake-adjacent locales in NE Illinois from a lake breeze.
Carlaw
Thursday through Monday:
The primary story through the end of the week continues to be the hot and humid conditions brought by the ridge over the eastern CONUS and the periodic shower and thunderstorm chances brought by the stalled front to the northwest. Although high temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 90s through Saturday, dew points should be able to mix out each day enough to limit heat indices to the upper 90s. This keeps us below Heat Advisory criteria, however, we will continue to message heat safety through the end of this first extended period of heat this year.
On Thursday, a backdoor cold front will move down Lake Michigan and sweep across the area. Model guidance is showing a consistent signal for the front being at the doorstep of Chicago by 12Z Thursday morning (if not earlier) before advancing southwest. This timing will limit high temperatures near the lakeshore to around 80 degrees. Although highs will likely be in the 90s across much of the area, temperatures may actually fall through the afternoon hours as the front moves overhead. If the timing of this front continues to move up, then some areas further inland could also see their high temperatures limited on Thursday. The stalled cold front over Wisconsin may also sag slightly southeastward Thursday as the ridge begins to flatten out. This will bring a chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms into the northwestern CWA Thursday afternoon.
Friday looks to be a pretty quiet day, although onshore flow associated with the remnants of the backdoor cold front and a lake breeze will likely limit high temperatures along the lakeshore while the majority of the area sees highs in the low- to-mid 90s once again. Isolated showers and thunderstorms also can't be ruled out Friday afternoon, mainly in the northern portion of the CWA
The next widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the Northern Plains and an associated surface cold front pushes through the area. This cold front will bring an end to this extended period of heat and humidity. Following this frontal passage, zonal flow looks poised to return with dry conditions early next week.
Carothers
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Main Concerns:
- Gusty south-southwest winds into this evening
- Chance of TS and a northeasterly wind shift late day Wednesday into Wednesday evening at ORD and MDW
South-southwest winds (180-210 deg direction) will gust to 25-30 kt past sunset and then likely ease with only sporadic gusts after midnight. Wind direction will shift to southwest (220-240 deg) Wednesday morning with gusts in the 15-20 kt range developing by around 12z.
Late in the day Wednesday, isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TS may encroach upon the Chicago area. In addition, a cold front approaching from the north will likely cause a wind shift to northeast by/during Wednesday evening. Due to timing and coverage uncertainty regarding the TS and timing uncertainty with the anticipated wind shift, deferred any TS and wind shift inclusion in the ORD and MDW TAFs to later updates. VFR conditions can be expected through the current TAF period.
Castro
CLIMATE
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
With a high temperature of 97 degrees recorded at O'Hare Airport yesterday, Chicago broke its daily high temperature record of 96 degrees for June 17th, which was previously set in 1887 and 1957. A few additional temperature records (primarily some of the record warmest low temperatures for both Chicago and Rockford) may be threatened over the next few days.
Here are the daily high and warmest low temperature records for Chicago and Rockford for each day through Saturday, June 22nd:
Chicago --------------------------------------- Day: 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 --------------------------------------- Record High: 98 102 104 101 97 Record Warm Low: 77 78 78 74 76
Rockford --------------------------------------- Day: 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 --------------------------------------- Record High: 99 99 101 100 97 Record Warm Low: 74 76 73 71 73
Ogorek
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Wednesday night for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45186 | 8 mi | 48 min | E 9.7G | 67°F | 60°F | 2 ft | ||
| 45187 | 11 mi | 48 min | SE 12G | 62°F | 49°F | 2 ft | ||
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 16 mi | 58 min | SSE 6G | 65°F | 29.97 | |||
| 45174 | 23 mi | 58 min | ESE 9.7G | 71°F | 63°F | 2 ft | 29.95 | 67°F |
| 45199 | 27 mi | 88 min | ESE 14 | 64°F | 61°F | 2 ft | 30.06 | |
| OKSI2 | 36 mi | 118 min | W 1.9G | 88°F | ||||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 38 mi | 38 min | S 26G | 86°F | 75°F | |||
| 45198 | 39 mi | 48 min | SSE 14G | 76°F | 66°F | 2 ft | 30.00 | |
| CNII2 | 40 mi | 43 min | S 12G | 86°F | 67°F | |||
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 43 mi | 48 min | SSE 13G | 70°F |
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Wind History graph: UGN
(wind in knots)
Chicago, IL,
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