Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roseland, FL
June 11, 2024 7:41 AM EDT (11:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 10:07 AM Moonset 11:41 PM |
AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 331 Am Edt Tue Jun 11 2024
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon and evening, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 111133 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
VFR conditions become MVFR generally after 15z with increasing SHRA/TSRA at the sites thru 21z. Hi-res guidance suggests rain chances decreasing north to south 00z and beyond with VCSH left behind. IFR CIG/VIS are possible among heavier SHRA/TSRA. Winds 10-12 kt may gust up to 20 kt outside of convection, gradually veering S after 21z. Continued lower confidence in SHRA after 03z, though the highest chances remain MLB south.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, while to the north the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North Florida. A weak surface disturbance forming along the boundary over or just offshore of Northeast Florida will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, building SW-S winds a bit to 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. All the rain and cloud cover will prevent any meaningful development of the sea breeze, and keep temperatures at or below normal, generally in the M-U80s. While less hot, the very high humidity keep heat indices in the 90s.
No significant change in rain chances and amounts since the afternoon forecast. PoPs 40-60 pct this morning increase to 70-90 pct this afternoon, then back off to 30-50 pct tonight, with the higher chances to the south. This results in a NW-SE oriented QPF gradient across the area ranging from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or more possible where repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms setup. Long and skinny thermodynamic profiles characteristic of these high rainfall events show enough CAPE for occasional cloud to ground lightning, and 850mb winds 30-40 kts could lead to surface gusts up to 40 mph in heavier precipitation, but the primary storm hazard will be heavy rain. Any heavy showers or storms that become slow/stationary, like the one yesterday that produced 2-3" of rainfall in the eastern Orlando/Sanford metro and over 5" in the rural areas to the east, could produce minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. The antecedent dry conditions mean the ground will be able to handle this kind of rainfall for a time, especially if given a quiet period to soak in, but repeated rounds will eventually lead to more impactful and persistent flooding.
Wednesday-Friday...The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. The ECM is the faster solution, developing a closed low by Wednesday morning, while the GFS lags behind by about 24 hours. The ECM then gives up on the low, absorbing it into another weak frontal boundary approaching the eastern seaboard, while the GFS further deepens the low as it tracks northeast. The ECM solution would result in a further lowering of rain chances and QPF across the north half of ECFL than currently advertised as early as Wednesday, while the tighter pressure gradient across Florida between the low and the Atlantic high advertised by the GFS would continue to transport the deep tropical moisture across Florida and continue high rain chances, especially to the south. Thus far the GFS has been performing better, so going to keep the forecast leaned towards that solution for now, calling for high rain chances with continued rounds of showers and lightning storms, including during the overnight hours. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible, with event totals reaching 2-3" up north and 3-4" down south by Saturday morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s.
Saturday-Monday...Model agreement might be a little better early this morning than previous days, but there's still enough variation between models and runs to keep forecast confidence low.
GFS continues to be much more aggressive with development of the low pressure system ejecting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard at this point, and a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). On the other hand, the ECM kills the low in the western Atlantic, and barely develops a wave in the Gulf. As a result, the GFS now continues rain chances for Florida while the ECM becomes drier, a flip-flop form this time yesterday. Given the low confidence, went with a blend that continues to favor the GFS given its aforementioned performance, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week, until a clearer picture comes into view.
MARINE
Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Today-Tonight...Winds and seas generally favorable for boating close to shore, but SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and SCT lightning storms are expected through the period. Small craft should exercise caution offshore later this afternoon and overnight as conditions become poor due to increasing winds and building seas. Ridge axis of the Atlantic high remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, with a stationary front draped across north Florida and into the adjacent Atlantic waters, producing SW-SSW winds 10-15 kts through the early afternoon. A surface disturbance slowly forming near/offshore Jacksonville will tighten the pressure gradient, shifting winds to the SSW-S and increasing to 15-20 kts across the offshore waters from the late afternoon and through the overnight. Seas 1-3 ft this morning increase to 3-5 ft, occasionally up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream.
Wednesday-Saturday...Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 5-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, the should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
VFR conditions become MVFR generally after 15z with increasing SHRA/TSRA at the sites thru 21z. Hi-res guidance suggests rain chances decreasing north to south 00z and beyond with VCSH left behind. IFR CIG/VIS are possible among heavier SHRA/TSRA. Winds 10-12 kt may gust up to 20 kt outside of convection, gradually veering S after 21z. Continued lower confidence in SHRA after 03z, though the highest chances remain MLB south.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, while to the north the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North Florida. A weak surface disturbance forming along the boundary over or just offshore of Northeast Florida will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, building SW-S winds a bit to 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. All the rain and cloud cover will prevent any meaningful development of the sea breeze, and keep temperatures at or below normal, generally in the M-U80s. While less hot, the very high humidity keep heat indices in the 90s.
No significant change in rain chances and amounts since the afternoon forecast. PoPs 40-60 pct this morning increase to 70-90 pct this afternoon, then back off to 30-50 pct tonight, with the higher chances to the south. This results in a NW-SE oriented QPF gradient across the area ranging from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or more possible where repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms setup. Long and skinny thermodynamic profiles characteristic of these high rainfall events show enough CAPE for occasional cloud to ground lightning, and 850mb winds 30-40 kts could lead to surface gusts up to 40 mph in heavier precipitation, but the primary storm hazard will be heavy rain. Any heavy showers or storms that become slow/stationary, like the one yesterday that produced 2-3" of rainfall in the eastern Orlando/Sanford metro and over 5" in the rural areas to the east, could produce minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. The antecedent dry conditions mean the ground will be able to handle this kind of rainfall for a time, especially if given a quiet period to soak in, but repeated rounds will eventually lead to more impactful and persistent flooding.
Wednesday-Friday...The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. The ECM is the faster solution, developing a closed low by Wednesday morning, while the GFS lags behind by about 24 hours. The ECM then gives up on the low, absorbing it into another weak frontal boundary approaching the eastern seaboard, while the GFS further deepens the low as it tracks northeast. The ECM solution would result in a further lowering of rain chances and QPF across the north half of ECFL than currently advertised as early as Wednesday, while the tighter pressure gradient across Florida between the low and the Atlantic high advertised by the GFS would continue to transport the deep tropical moisture across Florida and continue high rain chances, especially to the south. Thus far the GFS has been performing better, so going to keep the forecast leaned towards that solution for now, calling for high rain chances with continued rounds of showers and lightning storms, including during the overnight hours. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible, with event totals reaching 2-3" up north and 3-4" down south by Saturday morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s.
Saturday-Monday...Model agreement might be a little better early this morning than previous days, but there's still enough variation between models and runs to keep forecast confidence low.
GFS continues to be much more aggressive with development of the low pressure system ejecting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard at this point, and a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). On the other hand, the ECM kills the low in the western Atlantic, and barely develops a wave in the Gulf. As a result, the GFS now continues rain chances for Florida while the ECM becomes drier, a flip-flop form this time yesterday. Given the low confidence, went with a blend that continues to favor the GFS given its aforementioned performance, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week, until a clearer picture comes into view.
MARINE
Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Today-Tonight...Winds and seas generally favorable for boating close to shore, but SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and SCT lightning storms are expected through the period. Small craft should exercise caution offshore later this afternoon and overnight as conditions become poor due to increasing winds and building seas. Ridge axis of the Atlantic high remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, with a stationary front draped across north Florida and into the adjacent Atlantic waters, producing SW-SSW winds 10-15 kts through the early afternoon. A surface disturbance slowly forming near/offshore Jacksonville will tighten the pressure gradient, shifting winds to the SSW-S and increasing to 15-20 kts across the offshore waters from the late afternoon and through the overnight. Seas 1-3 ft this morning increase to 3-5 ft, occasionally up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream.
Wednesday-Saturday...Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 5-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, the should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) | 25 mi | 46 min | 80°F | 1 ft | ||||
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 38 mi | 46 min | 82°F | 1 ft | ||||
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 39 mi | 54 min | SSW 5.1G | 79°F | 88°F | 29.85 | ||
| 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL | 47 mi | 42 min | WSW 12G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.88 | 77°F |
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Link to 5 minute data for KVRB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVRB
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVRB
Wind History graph: VRB
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Sebastian Inlet bridge, Indian River, Florida (2)
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Sebastian Inlet bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM EDT 2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM EDT 2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sebastian Inlet bridge, Indian River, Florida (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Wabasso
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:22 AM EDT 0.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT 0.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EDT -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:22 AM EDT 0.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT 0.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EDT -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wabasso, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Melbourne, FL,
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