Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 9:02 PM Moonrise 11:38 AM   Moonset 12:21 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 106 Pm Pdt Wed Jun 12 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight pdt tonight - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 6 to 8 ft subsiding to 5 to 6 ft Thursday evening.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.81 kt at 1029 pm Wednesday. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.56 kt at 1016 am Thursday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.06 kt at 1124 pm Thursday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.

PZZ200 106 Pm Pdt Wed Jun 12 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will continue into Thursday, then weaken into Friday. NExt front arrives Friday night as a low moves southeast into our region.

FXUS66 KPQR 130439 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 939 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore maintains seasonably warm and dry conditions through Thursday. Low pressure then brings cool and showery weather Friday into the early part of next week, with a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.
Temperatures look to rebound near or above seasonal normals by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Friday Night...
Now through Friday Night...Plenty of sunshine across the area today as morning cloud cover has been scoured out by dry northerly flow with high pressure anchored offshore as of early Wednesday afternoon. This has allowed temperatures to climb well into the 70s across the interior lowlands. Not much change expected through Thursday as high pressure remains offshore and maintains warm and dry weather. Continued drying of the air mass will result in less cloud cover tonight into Thursday morning, which will in turn allow temperatures to climb a couple degrees higher on Thursday afternoon. Generally expect highs to top out in the upper 70s away from the coast, with probabilistic guidance showing a 25-30 percent chance to reach 80s degrees across the Portland metro for Thursday.

Expect a pattern shift back towards cooler and cloudier weather on Friday as an upper level trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska descends upon the Pacific Northwest. This will drop temperatures back near or slightly below seasonal norms with highs in the upper 60s or low 70s and also bring a chance of showers as a weak front moves through the area. Shower chances look to be generally confined to areas along and north of a Lincoln City-Portland-Mt St Helens line through Friday evening before more widespread shower activity spreads across the area Friday night. Model QPF remains on the light side, ranging from 0.25-0.50" in the higher terrain but generally closer to a tenth of an inch or less for all other locations through Saturday morning. /CB

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...WPC ensemble clusters remain in strong agreement on maintaining upper level troughing and a resulting cool, cloudy and showery pattern over the Pacific Northwest this weekend through the early part of next week. This is reflected in ensemble temperature forecasts which keep the area below normal with highs in the 60s through at least Monday. Cold air aloft will maintain showery conditions into Tuesday, though these look to be mainly spotty in nature with model QPF amounts remaining light through the period.
Guidance indicates a 15-25 percent chance for a few rumbles of thunder across the north both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, which will largely be dependent on if there are enough sun breaks to allow for adequate destabilization. Temperatures look to rebound into the 70s next Tuesday and Wednesday as the majority of ensemble clusters depict the trough starting to shift east of the region by midweek. /CB

AVIATION
High pressure will remain in control of the area, which is expected to maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds along the coast will remain N/NW at 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts late this evening and early tonight. Winds will relax after 8-10Z to around 10 knots through the remainder of the night. Winds within the Willamette Valley will also remain N/NW at 5-10 knots, becoming light and variable after 8Z.

HRRR guidance indicates possible development of marine stratus, mainly in the vicinity of KONP at 30-50% after 8-9Z. There are also lower chances of 10-20% around KAST and some development along the foothills in the western Willamette Valley with a 20-30% chance near KTTD from 12-16Z. Will hold off on adding any stratus at the inland TAF sites and KAST but will add in a broken stratus deck at KONP after 10Z based on guidance.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominantly VFR and clear skies throughout the TAF period. N/NW winds will become light and variable overnight. A few wind gusts around 20 kts will be possible at PDX early on. -Batz

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia Bar will remain in effect until midnight tonight, with winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt. Wind-driven Small Craft Advisory will be maintained until Thursday night for the inner and outer waters. Seas are currently around 7-9 feet at 10 seconds, with northerly winds gusting up to 25 kt, increasing to near 30 kt this evening into tonight.
Thursday, winds will gust up to 25 kt, then decrease below Small Craft Advisory criteria by Thursday night. Seas will have settled to 5 to 7 ft around this time, but may remain choppy. Next front will arrive late Friday, shifting winds back to westerly at 10 to 15 kt for late Friday into early Sunday.
-JH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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