Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Church Hill, MD
June 18, 2024 7:21 PM EDT (23:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 4:32 PM Moonset 1:51 AM |
ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 433 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 433 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week. Winds will remain light with a southerly component through the week.
high pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week. Winds will remain light with a southerly component through the week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 182110 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 510 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Increasing heat and humidity is expected for the rest of the week into the weekend as high pressure remains offshore and ridging aloft remains near the area. A back door frontal boundary is expected to approach and stall near the area by later Thursday into Saturday, before lifting back northward by Sunday. A stronger cold front is forecast around Monday of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
For this afternoon, isolated showers may encroach on the southern Poconos as we have already seen, but for most of the region, continued hot and dry conditions.
Through tomorrow, the center of the mid and upper level ridge will nudge closer to our region. With the surface high remaining offshore, south to southwesterly winds will push 925 mb temps into the 21-24 deg C range across the region. There will be little relief overnight with temps only expected to fall into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight.
By tomorrow, we should have widespread subsidence across the region, which will act to further suppress any shower development in our region. Model trends have been slightly lower with high temperatures tomorrow, but I want to emphasize that the trend has only been slight. The heat advisory for portions of the region, still appears on track.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Warm conditions continue into Thursday as ridging aloft will remain in place Wednesday night through Thursday night. A back door frontal boundary begins to approach the area from the north later Thursday into Thursday night, while a short wave/vorticity impulse will approach and move across the area as well. So there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night, although most shower activity could dissipate before reaching the area. The Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for Thursday, but may need to be converted to a Heat Advisory depending on the forecast Heat Index values.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The Excessive Heat Watch remains in place for Friday through Sunday as hot and humid conditions will remain in place across much of the area ahead of the approaching and stalling back door frontal boundary. Depending on where the boundary sets up, Friday will be a very hot and humid day for much of the area south of the boundary, while areas north of the boundary may not be as oppressive. Same thing for Saturday as the front will likely stall near the area.
Confidence on where the front sets up is low at this time, so we have kept the Excessive Heat Watch in place where it was before, but it is possible that some areas will not need to be upgraded. As the backdoor front approaches and stalls near the area, there will also be several short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of the area Friday into Saturday.
By Sunday, the back door front will lift back northward, while flow aloft shifts back to the southwest. This will allow temperatures to warm back up for all areas again, which will also allow for a lee- side/pre-frontal/thermal trough to develop across the area. With an increase in heat and humidity, the Excessive Heat Watch will remain in place for Sunday. Another concern for Sunday will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area, with the potential for stronger storms to develop. With the pre- frontal/thermal trough in place, and west-southwest winds aloft, instability will increase to 1000-2000 J/kg, while there will be increasing shear across the area and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. While we are still several days out, Sunday does have the potential for strong to severe storms to develop, however confidence levels in coverage and predictability are low at this time. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern.
On Monday and Monday night, the actual cold front is expected to move across the area while additional short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area. This will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area and warm conditions as well. Some storms will have the potential to be on the strong side with heavy rainfall. While some areas will remain quite warm, Monday is not expected to be as hot and oppressive as Friday through Sunday.
By Tuesday, the front will have pushed through the area an northwesterly flow aloft will develop. This will allow for dry weather to return and for the excessive heat to break, at least for a brief period.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through Tonight...VFR. Isolated -TSRA northwest of KABE possible through 03Z. Winds varying between SSE and SSW. Wind speeds 10 kt or less.
Wednesday...VFR with few if any clouds. Winds predominantly S at 10 kt or less.
Outlook...
Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR conditions expected. South- southwest winds 5-10 knots.
Friday-Saturday night...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the daylight hours. South-southwest winds 5-10 knots; occasional gusts around 15 knots Saturday.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts 15-20 knots.
MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Wednesday. South winds 10 to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will gust around 20 knots, especially right along the beaches and in the backbays. Farther offshore, there will likely be enough of an inversion to limit mixing and stronger gusts.
We haven gotten reports of higher waves in the area of some inlets. Based on surrounding observations and coastal web cams, it looks as if this may be confined to the inlets, so have held off on issuing any SCA, but will continue to monitor to see if it becomes more widespread.
Outlook...
Wednesday night-Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Sunday...Winds and waves may increase to Small Craft Advisory levels during day into Sunday night.
Rip Currents...
Wednesday...South-southeasterly winds will range around 10-20 mph along the coast. Breaking waves in the surf zone are expected to be around 1-3 feet with a period of 8-9 seconds. For this reason, have maintained a MODERATE Risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for Atlantic and Cape May County Beaches. For the remainder of beaches, went with a LOW Risk due to winds being more parallel to the shoreline.
Thursday...Similar weather and wave conditions are expected with a bit more of an onshore component along Ocean County. For this reason, went with a MODERATE Risk for all New Jersey beaches except Monmouth County. For the Delaware Beaches and Monmouth County, continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
CLIMATE
Record high temperatures Tuesday.
Location Record High (6/18)
Philadelphia, PA 96/1957 Allentown, PA 95/2018 Reading, PA 97/1957 Mount Pocono, PA 88/1957 Trenton, NJ 96/1957 AC Airport, NJ 95/2014 AC Marina, NJ 94/2014 Wilmington, DE 95/1957 Georgetown, DE 97/2014
Record high temperatures Wednesday.
Location Record High (6/19)
Philadelphia, PA 100/1994 Allentown, PA 96/1994 Reading, PA 95/1929 Mount Pocono, PA 86/1929 Trenton, NJ 96/1994 AC Airport, NJ 96/1994 AC Marina, NJ 93/1952 Wilmington, DE 100/1994 Georgetown, DE 96/1952
Record high temperatures Thursday.
Location Record High (6/20)
Philadelphia, PA 98/1931 Allentown, PA 100/1923 Reading, PA 101/1923 Mount Pocono, PA 89/2012 Trenton, NJ 98/1923 AC Airport, NJ 95/2012 AC Marina, NJ 90/1908 Wilmington, DE 97/2012 Georgetown, DE 98/2012
Record high temperatures Friday.
Location Record High (6/21)
Philadelphia, PA 99/1923 Allentown, PA 100/1923 Reading, PA 99/1923 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1953 Trenton, NJ 97/1923 AC Airport, NJ 97/1988 AC Marina, NJ 94/2012 Wilmington, DE 98/2012 Georgetown, DE 99/2012
Record high temperatures Saturday.
Location Record High (6/22)
Philadelphia, PA 100/1988 Allentown, PA 95/1941 Reading, PA 96/1921 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 99/1988 AC Airport, NJ 100/1988 AC Marina, NJ 92/1949 Wilmington, DE 98/1988 Georgetown, DE 97/2012
Record high temperatures Sunday.
Location Record High (6/23)
Philadelphia, PA 97/1888 Allentown, PA 95/1965 Reading, PA 96/1908 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 97/1894 AC Airport, NJ 98/1988 AC Marina, NJ 91/1909 Wilmington, DE 100/1894 Georgetown, DE 100/1988
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ054-055-060>062- 070-071-101>106.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ001-007>010-012- 013-015>020-027.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 510 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Increasing heat and humidity is expected for the rest of the week into the weekend as high pressure remains offshore and ridging aloft remains near the area. A back door frontal boundary is expected to approach and stall near the area by later Thursday into Saturday, before lifting back northward by Sunday. A stronger cold front is forecast around Monday of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
For this afternoon, isolated showers may encroach on the southern Poconos as we have already seen, but for most of the region, continued hot and dry conditions.
Through tomorrow, the center of the mid and upper level ridge will nudge closer to our region. With the surface high remaining offshore, south to southwesterly winds will push 925 mb temps into the 21-24 deg C range across the region. There will be little relief overnight with temps only expected to fall into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight.
By tomorrow, we should have widespread subsidence across the region, which will act to further suppress any shower development in our region. Model trends have been slightly lower with high temperatures tomorrow, but I want to emphasize that the trend has only been slight. The heat advisory for portions of the region, still appears on track.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Warm conditions continue into Thursday as ridging aloft will remain in place Wednesday night through Thursday night. A back door frontal boundary begins to approach the area from the north later Thursday into Thursday night, while a short wave/vorticity impulse will approach and move across the area as well. So there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night, although most shower activity could dissipate before reaching the area. The Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for Thursday, but may need to be converted to a Heat Advisory depending on the forecast Heat Index values.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The Excessive Heat Watch remains in place for Friday through Sunday as hot and humid conditions will remain in place across much of the area ahead of the approaching and stalling back door frontal boundary. Depending on where the boundary sets up, Friday will be a very hot and humid day for much of the area south of the boundary, while areas north of the boundary may not be as oppressive. Same thing for Saturday as the front will likely stall near the area.
Confidence on where the front sets up is low at this time, so we have kept the Excessive Heat Watch in place where it was before, but it is possible that some areas will not need to be upgraded. As the backdoor front approaches and stalls near the area, there will also be several short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of the area Friday into Saturday.
By Sunday, the back door front will lift back northward, while flow aloft shifts back to the southwest. This will allow temperatures to warm back up for all areas again, which will also allow for a lee- side/pre-frontal/thermal trough to develop across the area. With an increase in heat and humidity, the Excessive Heat Watch will remain in place for Sunday. Another concern for Sunday will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area, with the potential for stronger storms to develop. With the pre- frontal/thermal trough in place, and west-southwest winds aloft, instability will increase to 1000-2000 J/kg, while there will be increasing shear across the area and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. While we are still several days out, Sunday does have the potential for strong to severe storms to develop, however confidence levels in coverage and predictability are low at this time. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern.
On Monday and Monday night, the actual cold front is expected to move across the area while additional short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area. This will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area and warm conditions as well. Some storms will have the potential to be on the strong side with heavy rainfall. While some areas will remain quite warm, Monday is not expected to be as hot and oppressive as Friday through Sunday.
By Tuesday, the front will have pushed through the area an northwesterly flow aloft will develop. This will allow for dry weather to return and for the excessive heat to break, at least for a brief period.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through Tonight...VFR. Isolated -TSRA northwest of KABE possible through 03Z. Winds varying between SSE and SSW. Wind speeds 10 kt or less.
Wednesday...VFR with few if any clouds. Winds predominantly S at 10 kt or less.
Outlook...
Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR conditions expected. South- southwest winds 5-10 knots.
Friday-Saturday night...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the daylight hours. South-southwest winds 5-10 knots; occasional gusts around 15 knots Saturday.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts 15-20 knots.
MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Wednesday. South winds 10 to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will gust around 20 knots, especially right along the beaches and in the backbays. Farther offshore, there will likely be enough of an inversion to limit mixing and stronger gusts.
We haven gotten reports of higher waves in the area of some inlets. Based on surrounding observations and coastal web cams, it looks as if this may be confined to the inlets, so have held off on issuing any SCA, but will continue to monitor to see if it becomes more widespread.
Outlook...
Wednesday night-Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Sunday...Winds and waves may increase to Small Craft Advisory levels during day into Sunday night.
Rip Currents...
Wednesday...South-southeasterly winds will range around 10-20 mph along the coast. Breaking waves in the surf zone are expected to be around 1-3 feet with a period of 8-9 seconds. For this reason, have maintained a MODERATE Risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for Atlantic and Cape May County Beaches. For the remainder of beaches, went with a LOW Risk due to winds being more parallel to the shoreline.
Thursday...Similar weather and wave conditions are expected with a bit more of an onshore component along Ocean County. For this reason, went with a MODERATE Risk for all New Jersey beaches except Monmouth County. For the Delaware Beaches and Monmouth County, continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
CLIMATE
Record high temperatures Tuesday.
Location Record High (6/18)
Philadelphia, PA 96/1957 Allentown, PA 95/2018 Reading, PA 97/1957 Mount Pocono, PA 88/1957 Trenton, NJ 96/1957 AC Airport, NJ 95/2014 AC Marina, NJ 94/2014 Wilmington, DE 95/1957 Georgetown, DE 97/2014
Record high temperatures Wednesday.
Location Record High (6/19)
Philadelphia, PA 100/1994 Allentown, PA 96/1994 Reading, PA 95/1929 Mount Pocono, PA 86/1929 Trenton, NJ 96/1994 AC Airport, NJ 96/1994 AC Marina, NJ 93/1952 Wilmington, DE 100/1994 Georgetown, DE 96/1952
Record high temperatures Thursday.
Location Record High (6/20)
Philadelphia, PA 98/1931 Allentown, PA 100/1923 Reading, PA 101/1923 Mount Pocono, PA 89/2012 Trenton, NJ 98/1923 AC Airport, NJ 95/2012 AC Marina, NJ 90/1908 Wilmington, DE 97/2012 Georgetown, DE 98/2012
Record high temperatures Friday.
Location Record High (6/21)
Philadelphia, PA 99/1923 Allentown, PA 100/1923 Reading, PA 99/1923 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1953 Trenton, NJ 97/1923 AC Airport, NJ 97/1988 AC Marina, NJ 94/2012 Wilmington, DE 98/2012 Georgetown, DE 99/2012
Record high temperatures Saturday.
Location Record High (6/22)
Philadelphia, PA 100/1988 Allentown, PA 95/1941 Reading, PA 96/1921 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 99/1988 AC Airport, NJ 100/1988 AC Marina, NJ 92/1949 Wilmington, DE 98/1988 Georgetown, DE 97/2012
Record high temperatures Sunday.
Location Record High (6/23)
Philadelphia, PA 97/1888 Allentown, PA 95/1965 Reading, PA 96/1908 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 97/1894 AC Airport, NJ 98/1988 AC Marina, NJ 91/1909 Wilmington, DE 100/1894 Georgetown, DE 100/1988
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ054-055-060>062- 070-071-101>106.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ001-007>010-012- 013-015>020-027.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KW29
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NEW Forecast page for KW29
Wind History graph: W29
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chestertown, Chester River, Maryland, Tide feet
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:52 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:12 AM EDT 1.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:07 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:56 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:52 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:12 AM EDT 1.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:07 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:56 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.3 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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