Sunrise 4:17 AM   Sunset 11:42 PM Moonrise 11:19 AM   Moonset 12:44 AM

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PKZ802 Dall Point To Kwikpak Pass Out To 15 Nm- 350 Pm Akdt Thu Jun 13 2024
Tonight - SW winds 15 kt decreasing to 5 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fri - S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.Fri night - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.Sat - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.Sat night - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.Sun - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.Sun night - N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Tue - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 132329 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 329 PM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS...
Cool conditions cover the Southern and Western Interior along with isolated to scattered showers and a few PM Thunderstorms, while the NE Interior is hot and dry with isolated thunderstorms.
The Interior will become warmer and drier Fri with isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Some of those thunderstorms over the NE Interior will be dry and increase the possibility of fire starts. The Interior will become hot and dry over the weekend, much like last weekend, but without the wind. There will be a few thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Sat and Sun.

The West Coast is cool with areas of fog, and there are isolated to scattered showers west of Nome and Kivalina. Similar conditions will continue into Fri, then expect showers to end and fog to become more widespread Fri night into Sun.

Over the North Slope, unusually clear skies continue today.
A broad area of stratus and fog over the Beaufort Sea is expected to move SW over the Eastern Arctic Coast this evening, and to Utqiagvik late tonight. Expect stratus and fog to remain along the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik east Fri and Fri then thin at Utqiagvik Sat. West of Utqiagvik, increasing clouds and isolated showers will continue into tonight along with near normal temperatures, followed by cloudy skies southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and isolated to scattered showers and above normal temps Fri into the weekend. The inland North Slope and Brooks Range will remain very warm and dry through the weekend, with isolated PM thunderstorms in the Central Brooks Range today through Sat.

Surface pattern...
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Chicken to Livengood to Anaktuvuk Pass to Point Hope will move t o Chicken to Atigun Pass to Umiat by 4pm Fri, and to Chicken to Arctic Village by 4pm Sat, then remain there into Sun. This will be the focus for thunderstorms the next several days.

A vertically stacked 1014 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move to 300 NM west of Point Hope as a 1011 mb low by 4pm Fri, to 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1012 mb low by 4pm Sat, and to 200 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1014 mb low by 4pm Sun. This is causing is cool with areas of fog, and isolated to scattered showers along the West Coast that will spread north over the Western Arctic on the weekend. scattered showers and above normal temps Fri into the weekend.

High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will persist into Sun. This will cause east winds along the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik along with pushing in stratus and fog tonight and keeping it there into Sun.

High pressure over SW AK will build over the West Coast Fri and Sat and then persist into Sun. This will cause stratus and fog along the West Coast that will persist through Sunday, becoming thin in the afternoon and evenings, and becoming more dense midnight to morning.

DISCUSSION
Aloft at 12Z, models initialize 10-20 meters to low on heights under the strong high that is building over Northern AK. Expect that this will remain slightly stronger than forecast into Fri and possibly into the weekend. This will result in a stronger subsidence inversion that forecast by models and thus slightly less convection.

Models show similar solutions aloft through 4pm Sat, then the ECMWF, Canadian and NAM keep the low aloft over the CHukchi Sea closer to NW Alaska than does the GFS. Although the GFS is the outlier on Sat night and Sun, favor the GFS solution aloft Sat night and Sun since the strong omega block with a high over Mainland AK should be stable for several days and possibly longer since the solar heating over AK under this high should re-enforce the high heights of the ridge. Bottom line for features aloft is that we will use a blend of models aloft through 4pm Sat, then transition to the GFS for Sat night and Sun. We will also account for the stronger than forecast ridge over Nrn AK through Fri by having slightly less convection than models might indicate.

The long wave pattern will consists of an omega block with the blocker high over mainland AK, a low over the Gulf of AK, another low over the

At 850 mb, temperatures range from +10C over the NE Interior and INland areas of the North Slope to 0C over the Western Seward Pen and YK Delta west. By Fri the 0C isotherm will be from the Seward Pen and Point Hope NW, while the +10C isotherm is over the Eastern North Slope and much of the Eastern Interior. By Sat the +10C isotherm covers the Central and Eastern Interior and Brooks Range, while the West Coast warms as does the Arctic Coast. All areas warm 1-2C on Sun. Surface temps will follow suit expect for areas with seas or land breezes.

With precipitation, no areas receive significant precip through the weekend other than isolated areas under PM thunder storms today and Fri. Sat and Sun will be mainly dry most areas.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on most features. Models show similar solutions at the surface through Sun. Sustained winds over the Interior remain less than 15 mph through the weekend. The Eastern Arctic Coast has east winds of 15 to 20 mph tonight through Fri. South winds 15 to 25 mph in the Bering Strait and near Point Hope Fri into Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Chicken to Livengood to Anaktuvuk Pass to Point Hope will move t o Chicken to Atigun Pass to Umiat by 4pm Fri, and to Chicken to Arctic Village by 4pm Sat, then remain there into Sun. This will be the focus for thunderstorms the next several days.

Cool conditions cover the Southern and Western Interior along with isolated to scattered showers and a few PM Thunderstorms, while the NE Interior is hot and dry with isolated thunderstorms.
The Interior will become warmer and drier Fri with isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Some of those thunderstorms over the NE Interior will be dry and increase the possibility of fire starts Fri. The Interior will become hot and dry over the weekend, much like last weekend but without the wind. There will be a few thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Sat and Sun.

HYDROLOGY
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that water levels will fall slowly through the weekend and into next week.

Periods of heavy showers fell along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile River Basins the past two days. Rain fall amounts range from one half to one and one half inches, with the heaviest amounts along the Alaska Range east of Denali Park.

This rain has caused rapid rises on streams and small rivers in steep terrain. The streams and small rivers should peak today and begin to fall tonight. Larger rivers such as the Tanana, the Delta, the Nabesna and the Chisana Rivers should rise over the next several days. Although no flooding is expected, people in the Alaska Range east of Denali Park, and along the Goodpaster, Charlie and Fortymile Rivers should be alert to high river levels through tonight.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ933-935.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.

Cape Romanzof
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Thu -- 12:50 AM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 01:14 AM AKDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:48 AM AKDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:27 PM AKDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:06 PM AKDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:19 PM AKDT     First Quarter
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Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Kokechik Bay
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Thu -- 12:48 AM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 01:39 AM AKDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM AKDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:52 PM AKDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM AKDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:19 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

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