Sunrise 4:30 AM   Sunset 11:24 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM   Moonset 2:54 PM

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PKZ767 Saint Matthew Island Waters- 342 Pm Akdt Sat Jun 1 2024
.small craft advisory through Sunday night - .
Tonight - NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.Sun - N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.Sun night - N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.Mon - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.Mon night - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.Tue through Wed - N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.Thu - N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 012350 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 350 PM AKDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A vertically stacked occluded low over the western Gulf of Alaska will slowly retrograde to the south, reaching an area of the western Gulf south of Kodiak Island by Sunday afternoon. Its occluded front will remain draped over the northern gulf through the weekend, producing steady rain and easterly gales across the northern Gulf near the Barren Islands and the Stevenson Entrance of Cook Inlet through Sunday morning as a series of upper-level waves and vorticity lobes move along the front. Steady shower activity will also continue along the immediate Southcentral coast, especially across the higher terrain of the eastern and southern portions of the Kenai Peninsula.

Farther inland across Southcentral, clouds and showers will be increasing as an upper-level shortwave out ahead of the occluded front moves from the northern panhandle of Alaska inland over the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. This activity will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than what was observed Friday across interior Southcentral.

Clearing skies and warming temperatures are expected Sunday as the low over the western Gulf slides a bit farther south. This will allow a ridge to push into the interior of the Southern Mainland. For Kodiak Island, the low, coupled with an advancing inverted trough, will allow showers and gusty winds to persist into Monday. The inverted trough and associated easterly upper- level wave will move into the eastern half of Southcentral with another round of scattered showers likely from the Copper River Basin to the Matanuska Valley Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper low continues to linger over the Bering, causing periods of light rain for the central and western Aleutians.
Meanwhile, continuing easterly waves from a low in the western Gulf of Alaska are passing over Southwest and producing showers for much of the Alaska Peninsula. If clearing takes place near the foothills of the Kuskokwim Mountains, there is the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms as instability increases this evening.

Starting with the upper low in the Bering, weaker flow with the system will result in limited impacts for the Bering. Most precipitation will be light and winds will remain below small craft criteria through tomorrow afternoon. Fog and misty conditions that persisted over the Pribilof Islands this morning are currently expected to reoccur tonight into early tomorrow morning. Starting Sunday night, an Arctic trough begins to move southward towards the northern Bering. Ahead of it, a surge of below-normal cold air moves in and helps push the existing upper low out of the Bering into the North Pacific. A shortwave low south of the Aleutians passes by around this time and also helps move and absorb the currently present upper low. The push of cold air will also increase winds for much of the eastern Bering, with most of those marine zones experiencing small craft force winds through Tuesday afternoon. Some locations near Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta, as well as south of the eastern Aleutians, could see gale force winds late Monday into Tuesday. The low will be wrapped in fairly dry air, so most locations over land will not be significantly impacted by precipitation with this system. The colder air over water could help produce enough instability for a few light showers to occur on Monday and Tuesday. For places that do get precipitation, temperatures could be cold enough for some light snow to take place.

Moving on to the current unsettled weather in Southwest Alaska; periods of easterly showers will continue to occur through at least Monday night as the upper low in the Gulf of Alaska remains close to the region. Before cold air from the Arctic low reaches southwest, any daylight heating that takes place in the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas could help support enough instability for isolated thunderstorms tomorrow and Monday. The current question mark in that portion of the forecast is that since widespread cloud cover and rain showers are already present over the region, will enough sunlight take place for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours of the forecast period. The biggest potential for heavier rain will be tomorrow afternoon as a band of rain forms over the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay and moves southwest towards the eastern Aleutians tomorrow night. As the Arctic low makes its way into the northern Bering Monday night, a convergence boundary between it and the low in the Gulf of Alaska forms just west of the Alaska Range. This area will have enough energy and moisture to produce a precipitation band through Tuesday afternoon before the Arctic low moves further south and breaks up the boundary.

-BS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Wednesday through Saturday...

The midweek upper level forecast opens with a pair of lows stretching across the Southern portions of the state. The Eastern Gulf low weakens and tracks through to the Southwest Gulf before dissipating for Saturday. The Bering low center oscillates between Bristol Bay and the Central Aleutians, and remains the most persistent feature through the long term. Some additional energy out of the Arctic through the Bering Strait helps pull the center over the Central Aleutians. Jetstream support remains over the North Pacific. A clustered GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble maintains the best levels of confidence through the forecast period. The upper level ridge over the Eastern Mainland supports surface thermal troughs through the weekend.

Weak Southeasterly flow across Southcentral continues to pump moisture inland to the Alaska Range. Most precipitation will be showery, with best chances for convection in the Eastern Interior and Copper River Basin. Almost direct onshore flow continues more steady rainfall over Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty Northerly surface winds are expected in the Eastern Bering through Thursday. A number of surface features rotating over the Bering brings the more active weather across the Pribilofs and Aleutians.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC...Gusty southeast winds out of the Turnagain Arm will gradually abate late this evening into the overnight hours.
Afterwards and otherwise, VFR and light winds will prevail throughout much of the TAF period.

Nordyke Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 AM AKDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:59 AM AKDT     11.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:14 PM AKDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:17 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:31 PM AKDT     14.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Iliamna Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:44 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:01 AM AKDT     2.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:01 AM AKDT     11.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:08 PM AKDT     1.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:33 PM AKDT     13.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Iliamna Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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