Sunrise 3:57 AM   Sunset 10:07 PM Moonrise 1:15 AM   Moonset 9:18 PM

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PKZ032 Northern Chatham Strait- 731 Am Akdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog through the morning. Tonight - SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft.Thu - SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Thu night - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fri - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 031228 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 428 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SHORT TERM
Quiet weather returns to the panhandle as ridging begins to rebuild across the area, though some showers may linger through the northern half of the panhandle.

Aloft, a vertically stacked 554 decameter low in the western Gulf south of Kodiak island continues to slowly meander south as it remains cut off from the primary steering flow N of it. The low itself will steer across the SW Gulf through the remainder of the week. Downstream energy racing up from the SW across the E flank of the low will build ridging across the western Gulf into SE AK.
Initially, the ridge will have trouble reaching into the N half of the panhandle, and think that a few showers will linger across parts of the area through the next few days as a result, though chances will be on the lower side. Some clearing of the cloud deck for the N half of the area is possible for Wednesday night as the ridge strengthens, though think that the best chances of clearing and for a sustained duration of drier weather will be for more southern areas.

Some chances of fog during the early morning hours on Wednesday for the southern panhandle with chances of fog returning to many areas south of the Icy Strait Corridor. Only minimal changes were made to the forecast - primarily to high temperatures on Wednesday, which were lowered given the continuing cloud deck across the north.


LONG TERM
/Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overview: Semi static mid level flow pattern now should remain through the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain next week.

At 500 mb: Closed low over the Western AK Gulf will have dropping SE into the N Pacific with weak ridging over the Panhandle. The low is expected to shift back N into next week with uncertainty on how far to the east it might shift. At the surface the gulf low also drops to the south while high pressure expands over the gulf. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping chances of light precip and mostly cloudy skies in place. Ensembles show high probability of mostly cloudy skies. Operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks developing by Thursday.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less initially except for the northern channels where the pressure gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have increased southerly winds. Eastern gulf winds pick up on lee side of the ridge with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday due to the blocking pattern.

AVIATION

Mixed bag of IFR to VFR flight conditions this morning across the panhandle under mostly BKN to OVC skies and isolated showers.
Anticipating conditions to marginally improve today with showers tapering off through mid morning. By this afternoon, expect flight conditions near upper end MVFR to low end VFR with CIGS AoB 5000ft under mostly SCT to OVC skies. Winds should remain around 10kts or less through today for majority of the panhandle, except for PAGY, which could see southerly sustained winds up to 15kts and isolated gusts up 25kts.



MARINE
No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and ocean entrances.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hawk Inlet Entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Fritz Cove
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Wed -- 01:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM AKDT     -1.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:33 PM AKDT     13.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 PM AKDT     4.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
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Fritz Cove, Douglas Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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