.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite images this morning and afternoon show a trough digging into the Central Aleutians with surface observations reporting fog, low clouds and persistent north to northwest wind over the area. Tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure over the Western Aleutians begins to slightly flatten with the arrival of a Kamchatka Low in the Bering Sea. This low will bring reinforcing rain showers and low ceiling/fog conditions into tomorrow evening as the low moves south through the Aleutians. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 50s/lower 60s today and tomorrow with lows in the 40s across the Western and Central Aleutians. Small craft wind gusts will accompany the low's track.

Elsewhere today, satellite images show a cold front with rain showers over the Alaska Peninsula and portions of the Southwest.
These rain showers and northerly to northeasterly moving clouds will continue through tomorrow afternoon as a result of a southerly winds from a stationary low due south of Sand Point in the North Pacific Ocean. Northerly flow over the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Range will continue to bring cloud cover and scattered rain showers to the area through tomorrow evening. A fast moving low from the North Bering Sea could bring a quick period of heavy rain showers Monday evening into Tuesday to the Toksook Bay-Aniak- Togiak area.

-DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Wednesday through Saturday...

An Arctic upper level closed low center slips through the Bering Strait and moves to the Yukon Delta by the end of the forecast period. A second low center in the Gulf of Alaska merges with this low to form a Bering-wide low, with a trough extending back through the Gulf into the Eastern North Pacific. These two systems continue to spread precipitation across the Southern Mainland and Alaska Peninsula. A weak ridge holds onto the Eastern Interior through Saturday. This helps dry out areas near the ALCAN border, but also increases the risks for development of convective activity through the week. Despite good agreements in the larger scale features throughout the forecast, forecast spread and uncertainty between models becomes problematic through the second half of the forecast period. Longer term light precipitation will cover from the Canadian border across Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN, bringing some relief with forest fires. Expect brief periods of heavier rainfall as the upper features move through the pattern into the weekend, with gusty offshore winds developing Saturday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR ceilings below 5,000ft will persist from late afternoon through the overnight hours. Expect additional lower cloud decks, around 2,500ft, at times throughout evening and nighttime hours as occasional showers move over the terminal. Heavier showers may bring ceilings down to this 2,500ft level (MVFR) later this afternoon. Shower activity is expected to taper off later this evening.

Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will also persist across the terminal through Sunday morning. Sustained winds and gusts have likely already peaked, and will slowly diminish through the TAF period. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are still likely this evening through around midnight. South winds will become light at around 10 mph by mid-morning Sunday as the frontal system finally slides south over the northern Gulf.