DISCUSSION
A broad surface ridge far north of the islands continues to drive moderate trade wind flow, while a deep mid- to upper-level ridge parked overhead maintains very stable conditions with inversions at Lihue and Hilo based at 5000 and 6500 ft,respectively.
After the passage of a short-lived low-level dry slot overnight, another batch of moisture is moving in with windward showers on the increase early this morning, especially over and upstream of Oahu. However, the stable airmass will keep rainfall amounts on the modest side.

This stable, summertime trade wind weather pattern will dominate into early next week with only minor fluctuations in moisture levels and wind speeds. The surface ridge north of the state will weaken slightly tonight and Friday, leading to a small decline in winds through the weekend. The ridge aloft will remain anchored over the region, keeping stable conditions in place and a temperature inversion fluctuating between 5000 to 8000 feet. Precipitable water will be generally below the seasonal average, so rainfall will remain modest and windward-focused. Aside from a few afternoon showers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will be rather dry.

No big changes to the overall pattern are noted through the second half of next week. Trades look to increase to breezy levels around Monday night or Tuesday as the ridge to the north strengthens.
Stable conditions will persist, but the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a possible modest increase in windward showers around Tuesday.

AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the next couple of days. SHRA and brief MVFR conds will generally be confined to windward and mauka locations, but a few SHRA may make it over to leeward areas. Otherwise VFR conds should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Oahu, Molokai and Maui as several bands of SHRA move into the islands. Conds should improve later this morning.

MARINE
The pressure gradient over the local waters will remain weak the next several days in response to lower pressure over the eastern Pacific. High pressure will better establish itself northeast of the state, re-tightening the upstream pressure gradient, and this will restrengthen winds by the middle of next week. Trades holding at their current moderate speeds will maintain 4 to 6 foot sea heights through early next week.

No significant swells are expected from any direction for the remainder of the week. A series of small, medium period south southeast swells will produce fun south-facing shore waist to chest high surf. A recent small fetch of strong northeast winds off the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast has generated a small, medium period northeast swell. This swell is scheduled to arrive Sunday and reinforce the resident short period wind wave swell. Some of this northeast swell will wrap into more northern exposures.

Higher than normal water levels, in tandem with new moon tides, has increased water levels around Big Island and Maui County.
Peak water levels of between 3.0 to 3.5 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) are expected during periods of high tides. This will continue to create minor coastal flooding issues through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement highlighting this flooding threat remains in effect for both Big Island and Maui County.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.