Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pole Ojea, PR

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 6:08PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:07 AM CST (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PR
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location: -39.86, -75.19     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 181448
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1048 am ast Thu jul 18 2019

Update A drier air mass ahead of the next tropical wave has
filtered over the region this morning. As a result... Mostly sunny
skies has prevailed across the local islands with little or no
rainfall observed so far. Still expecting afternoon showers and a
few thunderstorms developing over western puerto rico due to the
sea breeze convergence along these areas. Later this afternoon
and tonight, deeper moisture associated with the tropical wave
will pool over the region, increasing the chances of showers
through Friday. Minor changes were introduced to the forecast
package this morning as it remains in line with the latest
thinking.

Aviation Vfr conds to continue across most of the TAF sites
thru the forecast period. However, brief periods of MVFR conds
are possible in and around jmz between 17 16-22z with the
afternoon convection. Easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots with
higher wind gusts .

Marine Seas below 5 feet and winds 15 to 20 knots are expected
today. Small boat operators should exercise caution due to fresh
winds across the atlantic and caribbean coastal waters.

Prev discussion issued 528 am ast Thu jul 18 2019
synopsis... A strong surface high pressure extending across the atlantic
will maintain a moderate to locally fresh easterly wind flow
across the region. A series of tropical waves are expected to
approach the forecast area every 3 to 4 days. The first is
forecast to affect the local islands on Thursday into Friday,
increasing moisture advection and the potential for shower and
thunderstorm activity. Although relatively drier air accompanied
by suspended saharan dust will filter the area in the wake of each
wave, patches of low-level moisture will support locally induced
activity.

Short term... Today through Saturday...

high pressure at the surface will persist in the east central
atlantic and extend across to florida well beyond the end of the
period. A tropical wave will move into the area today and showers
and thunderstorms associated with the wave will continue through
Friday. An upper level ridge will persist over or around the area
through Friday night. A tutt low will approach from the northeast on
Saturday.

The total precipitable water product from goes-17 shows the axis of
the moisture from the tropical wave over guadeloupe and linear
extrapolation will bring the leading edge over the u.S. Virgin
islands this evening around 18 22z and eastern puerto rico during
the first half of the night. The GFS did not show the general shape
of the wave well and confidence in its solution is low. There is a
band of moisture over us now that did supply some showers to the
area over night with one half to one inch in some higher elevations
of eastern puerto rico with slight drying following during the day
today. Moisture begins dropping off significantly after Saturday and
with it the chances for significant rainfall. But there is patchy
moisture even on Saturday that will allow some showers to develop.

Also extremely low relative humidities during the period appear to
be limited to above 16 kft and does not extend above 30 kft which is
an improvement over last week.

Long term... Sunday through Friday...

a mass of relatively drier air will dominate the local weather
conditions on Sunday into Monday. However, trade wind
perturbations will increase moisture content and the potential
for locally induced shower activity. A series of tropical waves
are expected to approach the region next week. The first is
expected late Monday night into Tuesday, while the second is
expected to arrive on Thursday into Friday. Although model
guidance suggest that the bulk of both waves will remain over
caribbean waters, an increase in moisture advection from these
features will support the development of shower activity across
most of the forecast area. Lack of upper level support may limit
the development of thunderstorms during the first part of the
week, but a tutt pattern aloft and a weakening of the trade wind
cap may support enhanced thunderstorm activity by latter part of
the workweek.

Aviation... Convection from a tropical wave was movg thru guadeloupe
as of 18 09z and will cont thru the usvi by 18 22z and ERN pr btwn
19 00-03z with shra and isol tsra. Additionally LCL effects will generate
shra tsra in pr wnw of EL yunque and in NW pr and ovr the central
mtns by 18 17z with MVFR conds psbl at tjbq and tjmz. E-ese sfc
winds ti increase to 10-20 kt aft 18 14z with gusts of 24-28 kt alg
coastal locations. Maximum winds ese arnd 20 kt btwn fl065-100.

Winds vrb less than 10 kt btwn fl200-340 and btwn fl445-510.

Marine... Mainly tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 5 feet
and east winds up to 15 knots are expected to hold across the
local waters during the next few days. However, small craft
operators are urged to exercise caution due to localized higher
winds up to 20 knots across the caribbean waters and coastal
waters of northern puerto rico. A moderate risk of rip currents
continues for a few beaches along the north, southeast and south
coast of puerto rico, as well as for a few beaches of culebra,
vieques and saint croix.

Fires... Recent kbdi observations continue to support a critical drying
pattern across the southern coastal plains of puerto rico with a
value of 717 and 757 reported at cabo rojo and camp santiago,
respectively. Today's forecast calls for relative humidity to drop
into the low 40s and low 50s and winds to peak at 15-20 mph with
higher gusts and sea breeze variations, particularly by late
morning into the early afternoon hours. Wetting rains are not
expected since a relatively drier air mass will dominate the
local weather conditions during this period. That said, the
combination of these conditions will result in elevated fire
weather conditions across these areas.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 89 79 89 78 40 40 50 30
stt 89 79 89 79 20 30 50 50

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Er
long term... .Er


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.