Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Pole Ojea, PR

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:23 AM CST (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 9:51AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PR
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location: -39.86, -75.19     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 210125 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service san juan pr
925 pm ast Tue aug 20 2019

Update Showers have dissipated almost completely, except for
several small areas: one in vega baja and one in naguabo.

Conditions still remain favorable for showers to develop as
precipitable water in the 21 00z sounding from san juan was 2.23
inches which is the highest this week so far. The main inhibiting
factor seems to be a lack of surface forcing with the land cooling
and only topographical features aiding in lifting from east
northeast to east winds. These winds extend all the way to 100 mb
with 10 to 20 kt and little directional variation.

The GFS still indicates drier air arriving in the u.S. Virgin
islands no later than noon on Wednesday and arriving in mayaguez
by 22 03z. This should shut down most of the convection that gets
going during the middle of the day Wednesday. This is still
expected to be considerable and will likely favor western,
northwestern and interior puerto rico as well as the san juan
metropolitan area in flow just south of east.

Long term note: precipitable water values now are likely as high
as can be expected any time in the next 7 days. A significant dust
episode is expected over the following weekend.

Some changes in interior temperatures were made, otherwise few
other changes were needed.

Aviation Vfr conds expected to persist through 21 16z except
for brief MVFR CIGS in shra in tncm tkpk. Aft 21 16z areas of
MVFR ifr and mtn obscurations over wrn, nwrn and central pr as
well as downstream from each us virgin island. Clrg will commence
aft 21 21z.

Marine Seas are expected to remain less than 6 feet through
the next 7 days. Isolated thunderstorms may induce locally higher

Prev discussion issued 319 pm ast Tue aug 20 2019
synopsis... Lingering moisture associated with a departing tropical
wave will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across interior and western puerto rico through late this
afternoon. A more stable weather pattern is expected Wednesday
through Friday, however, sufficient low-level moisture will remain
in place to result in afternoon convection across interior and
western portions of puerto rico. A tropical wave will bring
increased rain chances for Saturday, followed by drier conditions
and saharan dust for Sunday.

Short term... Tonight through Thursday...

showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect mainly interior
and western puerto rico through the late afternoon hours before
diminishing through the early evening hours with the loss of
daytime heating. For later tonight, a drier air mass will be
moving overhead. Therefore, more tranquil weather conditions are
expected with just some passing showers expected across the
regional waters and possibly affecting portions of northern and
eastern portions of puerto rico and the usvi. More stable weather
conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as an upper-level
ridge builds near the area with very dry air expected in the mid
to upper-levels of the atmosphere. This is expected to limit
rainfall activity across the area compared to previous days.

However, patches of low-level moisture embedded within the
easterly trade wind flow will move across the area from time to
time. This will generate some passing showers during the overnight
and early morning hours across the regional waters and portions
of eastern puerto rico and the usvi with only very light rainfall
accumulations expected. Then, during the afternoon, the available
low-level moisture will combine with strong daytime and local
effects to generate showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the western half of puerto rico.

Long term... Friday through Wednesday...

prev discussion... Issued 520 am ast Tue aug 20 2019
a mid to upper level ridge north of the region is expected to
promote fair weather conditions across the islands on Friday.

However, diurnally induced afternoon convection should develop
over western puerto rico. By Saturday, a tropical wave is expected
to increase shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.

At the same time a 700mb high pressure moving from the tropical
atlantic will bring a wind surge behind it and as well a saharan
air layer. Therefore, breezy conditions and hazy skies due to
saharan dust are expected late in the weekend. At the end of the
long term period, a tropical wave is forecast to increase shower
and thunderstorm activity. Both global models are showing
different solutions at this moment. The GFS has a strong tropical
wave entering the southeastern caribbean by Monday morning, while
the ECMWF has a slower solution(including the timing of the 700mb
high) and a weak wave at the end of the period.

Aviation... Vcts are expected across tjsj tjps tjbq until 20 22z.

Tempo due to thunderstorms is expected for tjmz until 20 22z. This
could result in MVFR conditions with possible ifr. Vcsh is expected
for the other terminals. Fl050 wind flow will continue out of the
east at 10 to 20 knots.

Marine... Mainly tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue
during the rest of the work week with seas of up to 5 feet and winds
up to 15 knots. However, showers and thunderstorms moving off the
west coast of puerto rico during the afternoon may briefly result
in hazardous seas and higher winds. There is a moderate risk of
rip currents for the northern beaches of puerto rico through

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 78 89 78 89 30 20 30 30
stt 79 88 78 90 30 30 50 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ws
long term... .Mb

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Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.