Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 5:16PM Saturday November 28, 2020 1:26 AM CST (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:01PMMoonset 5:05AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point, TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 280511 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. The cold front over south central TX continues to sag southwards this evening. KBRO and KCRP radar shows some isold to sct conv gradually increasing across the region near and south of the front. The front will push slowly southwards overnight and will clear through the RGV late tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the short term. As the front gets closer to the RGV, expect periods of MVFR ceilings to form up later tonight through early Sat morning. Will include a mention of PROB30 groups for TSRA later in the upcoming TAF period as the atms will steadily destabilize tonight and tomorrow south and east of the front. The passing conv may result in periodic reductions of ceilings down to IFR levels mainly during the latter TAF periods.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 622 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . The cold front has pushed into central TX with areas of conv firing generally north of CRP and HGX with this conv moving ENE. South of the cold front, KBRO radar shows no conv south of a CRP-LRD line with some fair wx CU/SC prevailing over the RGV. The cold front will push steadily southwards tonight and will clear through the RGV late tomorrow. Expect periods of MVFR ceilings to form up later tonight through early Sat morning ahead of the front. Will include some mention of PROB30 groups for TSRA later in the upcoming TAF period as the atms will steadily destabilize tomorrow south and east of the front. The passing conv may result in periodic reductions of ceilings down to IFR levels mainly during the latter TAF periods. The conv potential will then diminish after 00Z Sun as drier and more stable air moves in behind the fropa.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 257 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A slow approaching and passing a cold front, currently draped across central Texas, will be the main story through the short term. Ahead of this cold front temperatures will remain above normal, with temperatures falling in its wake. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front, beginning this evening mainly across the northwestern portions of the CWA making their way into the Lower Valley on Saturday. Some storms late tonight into early Saturday morning across the northern Ranchlands could be strong or severe. The front will make its way into Zapata county early Saturday morning, continuing to move slowly southeast through the day and finally through the entire CWA Saturday night. With this slow progression high temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 60s in portions of Zapata and Jim Hogg counties to upper 70s and low 80s in the Lower Valley. Tonight's lows will remain near normal out west with temps well above normal near the coast and Saturday night lows plunging into the upper 40s to lower 50s for the northern Ranchlands and the mid to upper 50s across the Valley. Easterly light to moderate winds will continue through tonight becoming more moderate and turning to the northwest with the frontal passage.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Models are in agreement pushing a 500mb low across the Plains on Sunday, with the associated surface low's cold front moving off into the Gulf leaving much cooler temperatures in its wake across Deep South Texas. Persistent northerly surface flow will also be in place behind the front allowing for additional cold air advection to occur each night after the frontal passage. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s will occur Sunday followed by a plunge into the middle to upper 40s for Monday morning. The coolest temperatures of the week will likely occur early Tuesday morning when much of the CWA will experience low temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. There is some potential for portions of Kenedy, Brooks, and Jim Hogg counties to fall to or below the freezing mark early Tuesday morning.

The first half of the long-term period looks relatively dry aside from a few lingering showers over the Gulf and possibly some coastal areas on Sunday. Models begin to diverge on their respective solutions of the mid to upper air patterns late Tuesday into Wednesday, advertising anything from another extended period of drier weather to a relatively rainy end to the period. Have opted to increase PoPs slightly in coastal areas and eastern counties as part of a general compromise between models. There is some consensus agreement on another front moving through the CWA Wednesday afternoon or evening which will likely be accompanied by some rain chances, but just how significant these chances are remains uncertain.

MARINE: (Now through Saturday Night) . Light to moderate south to southeasterly winds will continue into Saturday afternoon with favorable conditions expected. A slow moving cold front will begin to push through the Gulf waters by Saturday evening with northwesterly winds in its wake. Winds will increase Saturday late afternoon or early evening with moderate seas with small craft likely needing to exercise caution and possible Small Craft Advisory conditions late Saturday evening into the overnight.

Sunday through Friday: Strong north winds in the wake of Saturday's cold front will cause hazardous marine conditions to occur through Monday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through this time due to anticipated wind speeds and wave heights, with some wind gusts potentially reaching gale-force at times. Seas will then subside a bit on Tuesday as northerly flow briefly breaks down and shifts to easterly flow in advance of another front. In the wake of the midweek front, persistent northerly winds will likely occur again which will lead to another round of hazardous marine conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 80 58 66 / 10 40 40 20 BROWNSVILLE 73 81 58 71 / 10 40 40 20 HARLINGEN 72 80 56 69 / 10 40 40 20 MCALLEN 72 77 57 72 / 20 40 40 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 73 54 71 / 20 30 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 76 62 65 / 10 40 40 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation . 60-Speece Long Term . 56-Hallman


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.