Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Point, TX
May 1, 2024 8:16 PM CST (02:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:20 AM Sunset 5:54 PM Moonrise 1:03 AM Moonset 12:48 PM |
PMZ028 Oaxaca E Of Puerto Angel Within 300 Nm Offshore Including The Gulf Of Tehuantepec- 204 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Period 16 seconds.
Thu - W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Period 15 seconds.
Thu night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Period 14 seconds.
Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Period 15 seconds.
Fri night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 16 seconds.
Sat - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 16 seconds.
Sat night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds.
Sun - W winds 10 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 15 seconds.
Sun night - SW to W winds 10 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 14 seconds.
Mon - SW to W winds 10 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds.
Mon night - SW to W winds 10 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds.
Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 012315 AAA AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 615 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
The short-term forecast period will continue to feature a steady state pattern, that being warm, humid and rain-free with continued onshore flow. Morning and nighttime hours will continue to see overcast skies while afternoon hours will see some breaks in the overcast.
Daytime highs will be slightly warmer than normal while nighttime lows will be warmer than normal. For tonight and Thursday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the mid to upper 70s (some +4-8F degrees above average). The high temperature on Thursday is expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s (some +2-3F degrees above average)
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Shortwave energy, upslope flow and strong to extreme instability will produce isolated to scattered convection initially across the Sierra Madre in the late afternoon and evening on both Fri and Sat. Most of this convection is expected to wane significantly before reaching the Rio Grande Plains or Upper Valley given the increasing cap strength and lack of forcing across our CWA For now, will maintain slight chance POPs for just Zapata county for these Fri and Sat time periods. Otherwise, strong capping within the 915-630 mb layer will keep our convective chances close to nil through most of, if not all, of the extended forecast period.
The main weather story will be the building heat next week. A broad strengthening mid/upper ridge axis will continue to expand its grip and influence on our CWA next week. The result will be increasing subsidence, even drier conditions, and rising temps.
Diminishing cloud cover will further add to the building heat. H8 temps by Wed will be 25-28 degrees Celsius! Widespread daytime highs in the 90s through the weekend will gradually be replaced with 100s during the Mon-Wed timeframe across inland areas, especially west of I-69C. An expanding Major HeatRisk area by Tue and Wed will prevail across areas west of I-69C. As for Heat Indices, we could be looking at marginal heat advisories for this same geographical area by Wed.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites this evening. OVer the next few hours an increase in low level moisture will lead to increased cloud cover and lowering ceilings. BRO and HRl will fall to IFR later this evening and into the early morning hours, while MVFR should hang on at MFE. MVFR will return in the early morning hours Thursday for BRO and HRL with VFR returning to MFE and HRL by mid to late afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Tonight through Thursday night...Moderate winds may yield periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.
Conditions are expected to range between a moderate chop to choppy at the bay. Meanwhile, moderate seas are expected to continue with wave heights between 4-6 feet. Elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RISK for rip currents at the local beaches through Thursday.
Friday through Wednesday...Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will prevail through most of the period across the coastal waters. Small craft caution conditions will be the dominant hazard. However, at times in the afternoon and evening, there will be marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters given the enhanced pressure and thermal gradients early next week. The rip current risk will remain moderate to occasionally high throughout the period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 89 78 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 92 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 93 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 95 77 96 / 10 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 81 77 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 87 76 88 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 615 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
The short-term forecast period will continue to feature a steady state pattern, that being warm, humid and rain-free with continued onshore flow. Morning and nighttime hours will continue to see overcast skies while afternoon hours will see some breaks in the overcast.
Daytime highs will be slightly warmer than normal while nighttime lows will be warmer than normal. For tonight and Thursday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the mid to upper 70s (some +4-8F degrees above average). The high temperature on Thursday is expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s (some +2-3F degrees above average)
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Shortwave energy, upslope flow and strong to extreme instability will produce isolated to scattered convection initially across the Sierra Madre in the late afternoon and evening on both Fri and Sat. Most of this convection is expected to wane significantly before reaching the Rio Grande Plains or Upper Valley given the increasing cap strength and lack of forcing across our CWA For now, will maintain slight chance POPs for just Zapata county for these Fri and Sat time periods. Otherwise, strong capping within the 915-630 mb layer will keep our convective chances close to nil through most of, if not all, of the extended forecast period.
The main weather story will be the building heat next week. A broad strengthening mid/upper ridge axis will continue to expand its grip and influence on our CWA next week. The result will be increasing subsidence, even drier conditions, and rising temps.
Diminishing cloud cover will further add to the building heat. H8 temps by Wed will be 25-28 degrees Celsius! Widespread daytime highs in the 90s through the weekend will gradually be replaced with 100s during the Mon-Wed timeframe across inland areas, especially west of I-69C. An expanding Major HeatRisk area by Tue and Wed will prevail across areas west of I-69C. As for Heat Indices, we could be looking at marginal heat advisories for this same geographical area by Wed.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites this evening. OVer the next few hours an increase in low level moisture will lead to increased cloud cover and lowering ceilings. BRO and HRl will fall to IFR later this evening and into the early morning hours, while MVFR should hang on at MFE. MVFR will return in the early morning hours Thursday for BRO and HRL with VFR returning to MFE and HRL by mid to late afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Tonight through Thursday night...Moderate winds may yield periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.
Conditions are expected to range between a moderate chop to choppy at the bay. Meanwhile, moderate seas are expected to continue with wave heights between 4-6 feet. Elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RISK for rip currents at the local beaches through Thursday.
Friday through Wednesday...Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will prevail through most of the period across the coastal waters. Small craft caution conditions will be the dominant hazard. However, at times in the afternoon and evening, there will be marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters given the enhanced pressure and thermal gradients early next week. The rip current risk will remain moderate to occasionally high throughout the period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 89 78 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 92 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 93 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 95 77 96 / 10 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 81 77 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 87 76 88 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Airport Reports
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Brownsville, TX,
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