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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1031 Am Ast Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers.

AMZ700 1031 Am Ast Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a long-dominant dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a strong surface high pressure over the western atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend into next week. The intense subtropical high pressure will hold north of the islands through at least mid-week, at which point it will interact with a cold front moving eastward across the western atlantic.

FXCA62 TJSJ 100900 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 500 AM AST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Ongoing hazard risks arise from the interaction of a long-dominant period northerly swell with persistent fresh to strong winds, generated by a strong surface high pressure over the western-central Atlantic. This interaction will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions and life-threatening swimming and rip current conditions throughout the workweek. Small craft operators and beachgoers, both residents and visitors alike, must remain vigilant and steer clear of these hazardous and potentially life-threatening conditions. Although moisture from an old cold front will be the source of today's shower activity, the anticipated strong steering flow will likely continue to support a frequent passing shower pattern during the next few days.



SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...

Calm weather conditions prevailed through midnight. Then, the remnants of an old frontal boundary brought clouds and showers across the local waters and the windward sections in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Overnight low temperatures were in the mid- 70s across the coastal areas and in the low-60s in mountains and valleys.

A subtropical high pressure north of the islands will promote breezy to locally windy easterlies across the local waters through Tuesday.
The easterlies will push the remnants of a frontal boundary across the islands, increasing the Total Precipitable Water (PWAT) near to above normal values. Under this weather pattern, showery and cloudy weather will prevail today. However, we are not anticipating significant flooding across the islands. These showers will produce occasional periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, resulting in ponding of water in poorly drained areas and roads. Monday's weather pattern will be similar to today's, with the advection of some clouds and showers but less rainfall.

Once again, we are at the mercy of the winds, but the moisture content will continue to slowly erode late Monday night into Tuesday and be replaced by a cooler air mass, resulting in pleasant temperatures. The breezy easterlies will bring occasional passing showers regardless of this air mass.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

Except for variations in the timing of high and low moisture periods, the latest model guidance has yet to introduce significant changes. The most significant rains will result from showers generated by cool advective processes across the local waters and carried by the general steering flow, dominated by east-to-east-northeast trade winds at 15-25 mph and occasionally higher speeds, into windward areas during the forecast period.
These breezy to windy conditions will result from a persistent strong surface high pressure system over the western-central Atlantic, maintaining a tightened local pressure gradient across the Northeastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a dominant mid-level ridge will also persist over the northern Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft and confining moisture to the lower levels, thus suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development.
However, a weak upper-level trough will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the influx of deep moisture into the region by the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend.

In the expected weather scenario, with intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture streaming across the region, variations in moisture levels will be less chaotic. The latest model guidance suggests precipitable water values falling to below-normal thresholds or below 1.2 inches by mid-week, gradually increasing to above-normal levels of about 1.6-1.7 inches on Saturday. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any. Despite periods of increased shower activity, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should still center around winds-related threats.



AVIATION
SHRA/-SHRA will sometimes move across JSJ/IST/ISX through at least 10/15z, reducing VIS between 4 and 6 SM. However, VFR conditions will mainly prevail across the local flying area.
Winds will range principally from the east at 10 to 15 kt overnight and gusty near SHRA. Winds will vary between 15 and 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after 10/12z.



MARINE
Recent observations from the CariCOOS buoy network near Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have shown consistent deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions with wave heights of 7-8 feet at 10-12 second periods in buoys with Atlantic exposure.
Elsewhere, wave heights have remained around 4-6 feet.

Marine conditions will remain deteriorated and hazardous as additional pulses of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and vigorous to fresh winds impact the regional waters through the weekend and continue until at least mid-week.
During the next few days, seas will likely reach 8-10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds will peak around 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are currently in place for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of southwestern Puerto Rico, where small craft operators should exercise caution. Seas will drop below small craft advisory for some protected coastal waters on Monday, but hazardous seas will continue throughout the workweek. For more information on current marine risks, refer to the Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU).



SURF ZONE
Deteriorated marine conditions will also impact surf zone and beach conditions, producing large breaking waves reaching up to 12 feet and occasionally higher. These conditions will likely result in high surf and life-threatening swimming and rip current conditions today. So far, a Rip Current Statement and a High Surf Advisory are currently in effect for beaches extending from Rincon and Aguada in the west to Fajardo in the northeast, covering the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, and Culebra.
Furthermore, a High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect for beaches in southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. High surf conditions should cease this evening, but the high rip current risk will continue throughout the workweek. Refer to the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) for details on surf zone hazard risks.



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ003-010-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM GMT Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM GMT Monday for AMZ735-742.

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Arroyo
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Sun -- 04:22 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:26 AM AST     0.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:31 AM AST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:52 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:49 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:49 PM AST     0.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:05 PM AST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arroyo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Puerto Maunabo
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Sun -- 04:22 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:38 AM AST     0.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:31 AM AST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:51 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:01 PM AST     0.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:05 PM AST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Maunabo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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