Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jobos, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Monday...

A very active day in terms of rainfall was observed across Puerto Rico today due to the influence of a mid-to-upper-level trough, in combination with a surface-induced trough. During the morning, a thunderstorm developed over the northwestern tip of Puerto Rico, bringing heavy rain and occasional lightning, leaving behind 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall. At the same time, passing showers moved across most of northern and eastern Puerto Rico. From mid-morning onward, some of these showers, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms, began to strengthen, resulting in multiple Flood Advisories across various sectors. Later, the heaviest showers and thunderstorms shifted over southern Puerto Rico. Based on radar estimates, general rainfall totals ranged between 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts.

For the rest of the afternoon, conditions are expected to gradually improve after sunset. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue before then, potentially causing ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas.

Not many changes were made to the forecast, as it remains largely on track. Weather conditions will continue to be influenced by the mid- to-upper-level trough, which is expected to linger through tomorrow.
In combination with the surface-induced trough, this pattern will continue to dominate the regional weather and enhance low-level convergence across the northeastern Caribbean. According to the latest model guidance, precipitable water values are forecast to range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches through tonight—above the climatological average for this time of year. By tomorrow (Sunday), these values will begin to decrease to near-normal levels.
Therefore, tomorrow will be more as a transition day. Expect showers mainly over the surrounding waters and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning, with a limited flood risk early in the day. Some afternoon convection may still develop, supported by available moisture and local effects, but overall conditions will be less favorable for deep convection. As a result, a gradual improvement in rainfall conditions is expected later in the day and continuing into early next week.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...

Current model guidance has precipitable water values (PWAT) at 1 to 1.20 inches to start the long term period, gradually increasing as we continue into the period. To start the period, a mid to upper level trough will be northeast of the islands, gradually deteriorating as we head in to the midweek. A surface trough, however, will continue to cross the region, promoting east- northeasterly steering flow on Tuesday, gradually backing to become southeasterly by Wednesday. An more east-southeast Thursday and into the weekend. A notable increase in PWAT values is forecast by late Thursday, with most of the region having more than 1.5 inches of PWAT, with the eastern region having around 2.0 inches. By late Saturday, current model guidance has most of the region at around 2.0 inches (above normal values for this time of the year). Most available moisture will be confined to below 700 mb through at least late Friday. In general, weather conditions are forecast to gradually improve during the start of the next workweek, overnight and morning showers are still forecast over windward areas while afternoon convection will still occur over sectors of western PR, with exact locations depending on the prevalent steering flow that day. The increase in moisture to end the workweek and into the next weekend can increase the coverage of this activity. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to be at below to normal values to start the period, gradually climbing due to east-southeast flow during the second half of the workweek.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, a sfc trough will continue to result in SHRA/isold TSRA till 20/06Z across most TAF sites with lcl MVFR, and brief IFR, and clds topping mtns. NE winds at 12-17 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations till 19/23z bcmg land breezes of less than 12 knots aft 19/23Z.



MARINE

A surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue to push remnant showers of a past frontal boundary across the region over the next few days while a nearby mid to upper level trough and a surface trough produces favorable conditions for their development. This will lead to increased showers and thunderstorms across the local waters. Increasing northeasterly winds and a weak northerly swell will deteriorate marine conditions by this evening and into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic Waters and later on for the Anegada Passage the Atlantic near shore waters.

BEACH FORECAST
A low to (in some areas of north-central and northwestern PR)
moderate risk of rip currents is expected today. Tonight, the risk increases to moderate for all north-oriented beaches of Puerto Rico. Life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

For tomorrow, Sunday, increasing winds and a weak northerly swell will further deteriorate coastal conditions. A High Risk of Rip Currents is forecast for the north-oriented beaches of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, through at least early Tuesday. A High Risk of Rip Currents means that life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone.

If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly.

Beachgoers should also remain vigilant for afternoon thunderstorms, especially along the western and southwestern coasts of Puerto Rico this weekend, where dangerous lightning may occur.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday night for PRZ001-002-005-008.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for PRZ010.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Tuesday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ712-742.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AST Tuesday for AMZ741.