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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 458 Pm Ast Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers. Isolated Thunderstorms through the night.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 458 Pm Ast Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a northeasterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a subtropical high pressure north of the area, will promote hazardous marine conditions through at least Tuesday. An area of low-pressure developing across the central atlantic and the surface high pressure will tighten the local pressure gradient promoting fresh to strong trade winds and hazardous seas across the regional waters from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

FXCA62 TJSJ 112134 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 534 PM AST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS

A strong surface high over the central Atlantic will promote breezy conditions during the next few days. Then, another surface high building over the western Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient over the area and strong east to northeast trades will prevail through the workweek. A distant surface low pressure over the central Atlantic is expected to develop by midweek and swells associated to the low in combination with the locally wind-driven seas will cause rough surf conditions with life-threatening rip currents through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday...

Brief passing showers embedded in the ongoing breezy conditions prevailed during the morning hours with minimal rainfall accumulations over land. As drier air moved in from the east, we experienced less rainfall activity than yesterday. Overall, mostly variables condions across the islands, with temperatures along the coastal areas in the 80s and in the 70s across the mountanous areas.

Expect, similar and even drier conditions through the short-term period as an elongated surface high pressure system works its way into the central Atlantic Basin, tightening the pressure gradient and allowing cooler, dry air to move into the forecast area by early Tuesday morning. Mid to upper-level ridging will also promote stable conditions.This will produce breezy to windy easterly flow which will bring in clouds from time to time with the occasional shower. In general, fair weather conditions are expected with eastern Puerto Rico having the best chance of getting a quick passing shower throughout the day. Precipitable water values are currently forecast to remain on the lower side so no significant rainfall anticipated. Cooler temperatures will also be felt across the islands as breezy winds prevail. During this week marine and coastal conditions will be hazardous, therefore we urge people to exercise caution when spending time around the ocean.

By mid-week, we have a moderate/high confidence that will experience windy to very windy trade winds across portions of the islands. For that reason, we may need to issue a Wind Advisory.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...FROM previous discussions...

Similar conditions will continue on Thursday, and at least as of today, it seems that it will be the driest day of the long term period. Then on Friday into the weekend, a weak upper level trough will press against the mid-to upper-level ridge and pooling of moisture is expected across the northeastern Caribbean, with trade wind perturbations reaching the local area at times from the east. Then on Sunday and Monday, winds are forecast to gradually turn more east to southeast as a broad surface low pressure moves into the western Atlantic. This will continue to promote pooling of moisture across the local area with precipitable water content ranging between 1.75-2.00 inches from Friday onwards. Therefore, expect a wetter pattern through the long term period, with possible isolated thunderstorms on Friday as 500 mb temps drop to around minus 6 degrees Celsius in response to the upper level trough moving over the region.

AVIATION
VFR conditions will persist for most of the period across all TAF sites. Breezy conditions will continue to result in winds from the E- NE at 15-20 kts with higher gusty winds. VCSH are possible across most of the eastward sites from 11/22-1216Z. Winds will decrease at 12/03Z at 10 -12 knots. SHRA over the waters might result in MVFR conditions with low ceilings over TIST, TISX & TJPS.

MARINE
The combination of a northeasterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a subtropical high pressure north of the area, will promote hazardous marine conditions through at least Tuesday. An area of low-pressure developing across the Central Atlantic and the surface high pressure will tighten the local pressure gradient promoting fresh to strong trade winds and hazardous seas across the regional waters from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.
Therefore, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least Friday afternoon, and will likely be extended later into the weekend if necessary. Please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) for more information.

BEACH
At this time, nearshore Atlantic buoys are raging between 6 to 8 feet. Nonetheless, they are will continue to increase gradually into mid-week. Therefore, rip current risk are in effect for beaches along western, northern, and eastern Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S> VIrgin Islands, and Culebra.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ003-013.

High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 PM AST Friday for AMZ742.

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Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Arroyo
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Mon -- 05:21 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM AST     0.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:29 AM AST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:39 PM AST     0.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM AST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arroyo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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