Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 6:53 PM Moonrise 1:24 PM   Moonset 1:34 AM

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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 406 Am Ast Thu May 16 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Isolated showers. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 6 seconds. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Sunday - East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Sunday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet.

AMZ700 406 Am Ast Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure across the western and central atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds for the upcoming days. Therefore, tranquil marine conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated Thunderstorms could move from western puerto rico into the coastal waters each afternoon.

FXCA62 TJSJ 160930 CCA AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 530 AM AST Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS

Surface high pressure ridge spread across the west central Atlantic and weakly induced trough northeast of the region will maintain a light east to northeast wind flow today. Passing showers steered by this flow will reach the local waters and portions of the north and east coastal areas during the early morning hours. Afternoon shower development will be possible mainly across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. Mostly fair weather and sunny skies are forecast elsewhere. An increase in early morning and afternoon shower activity is expected by Friday and into the upcoming weekend due to better moisture transport and instability aloft due to the proximity of a mid to upper-level trough. Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days especially with winds forecast to become more southeasterly.

SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday...

Stable weather conditions prevailed during the night and early morning hours. Around midnight, Radar Doppler showed a few passing showers affecting the northeastern sections of Puerto Rico, resulting in minimal rainfall accumulations. The rest of the area and the U.S.
Virgin Islands mainly observed clear skies and no rainfall activity.
Overnight temperatures were a little warmer, especially across the coastal areas, ranging in the upper 70s to lower 80s and mid-70s across the mountains.

The short-term forecast is still on track. A mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in drier air aloft and stability. At the surface, a building high pressure over the central to northeastern Atlantic will result in an east-southeasterly wind. Embedded in this wind pattern, as shown by the GOES Satellite- derived products, patches of moisture with PWAT near normals will drive a convective pattern in the afternoon across the islands today. Due to the more southerly surface wind change, shower activity will concentrate across the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Elevated moisture levels and southeasterly winds will enhance heat indices around 102-107 degrees Fahrenheit across the northern coastal sections, resulting in a limited heat threat for most coastal areas and some isolated areas with higher heat indices near 108 degrees Fahrenheit.

Recent model guidelines and the Hi-res model show increased shower activity from Friday to Saturday. This pattern will be mainly driven by the favorable side of an upper-level trough sinking into the region, positioning a regional zonal flow over the region. This instability and the available moisture will enhance periods of strong showers during the afternoon hours from Friday into Saturday. The bulk of the showers should remain localized across the northwestern quadrant and the San Juan metro area.
A weakness in the pressure gradient will result in lighter to moderate winds, affecting the movement of afternoon showers. That said, for Friday into Saturday, the islands can expect deteriorating weather in the afternoon.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...

A surface high pressure system extending from the central and northeast Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region during the initial phase of the period. These winds will aid in transporting patches of tropical moisture to the region, and therefore increase the likelihood of shower development each day, but particularly in the afternoon. Most showers should be focused across the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico and and in isolated areas around the San Juan metro area.
There will be plenty of sunshine and hot and humid conditions through the weekend and into early next week. These conditions will yield increasing heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat for the northern coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands including the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Moisture convergence and instability is however expected to gradually increase by late Sunday and throughout the forecast period as a deep layered trough is forecast to move across the western Atlantic and become amplified west of the region while moving eastward. Recent model guidance continued to suggest, the strongest divergence and most favorable side of the deepening TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) and its associated jet stream will reach the forecast area from Monday and continue to affect the region through Thursday. With increasing instability aloft along with colder temperatures and abundant tropical moisture convergence,precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to exceed the climatological normals by over 2 inches. Consequently, a wet period is still forecast for the islands and coastal waters, with the increasing probability of showers and thunderstorm development with areas of widespread rains likely, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. This so far anticipated period of excessive and heavy rainfall will increase the risk of urban and river flooding from Tuesday through the rest of the period. Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor how this unfolds and make adjustments to the long term forecast if needed.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites during the period.
Winds will increase by 16/15Z from the east at 15 knots or less, with sea breeze variation. SHRA and VCST are forecasted for the mountain sections, resulting in lower ceilings, and VCTS and SHRA across TJPS and TJBQ. Winds will decrease by 16/23Z, becoming variable with land breeze variation.

MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Central Atlantic will continue to promote light to moderate easterly winds across the region. With this pattern, seas will remain up to 4 feet across all the local waters and passages.
These conditions will prevail across the local waters during the period. Similar tranquil marine conditions are expected for the coastal areas, where the risk for rip currents will remain low for the next five days or so.

BEACH FORECAST
There is a low rip current risk today across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The risk will likely remain low for the next several days. However, life-threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. In addition, with possible heat indices between 102-107 degrees, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be possible with prolonged exposure.
Stay hydrated!

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Playa de Ponce
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Thu -- 01:34 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:10 AM AST     0.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM AST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:17 PM AST     0.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:16 PM AST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Playa Cortada
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Thu -- 01:33 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM AST     0.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM AST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:34 PM AST     0.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:52 PM AST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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