Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guanica, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...

Variably cloudy skies prevailed during the night and early morning hours as showers drifted over land areas from coastal waters of PR and the USVI. The Doppler radar estimated between a quarter to half an inch of rain with the heaviest showers along portions of northern and eastern PR, as well in the northern USVI. Minimum temperatures were from the mid to upper 60s across the higher elevations of PR to the mid-70s across coastal areas. The wind was light and variable.

A wet weather pattern will continue through the short-term period as abundant moisture remains over the region under the influence of deep layered trough over the western Atlantic that extends into the northeastern Caribbean. Furthermore, a mid-to upper level cut-off low is expected to develop northeast of the region by late Wednesday and linger through Thursday. This will further enhance instability aloft and trigger stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall each afternoon over PR. For the USVI, this period will also be wettest one. At the surface, weak steering winds will continue today and the sea breeze influences will cause showers to drift mainly along the mountain ranges of PR once again. Urban and small stream flooding, as well as localized flash flooding, river flooding, and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are expected.

Winds will acquire a northeasterly component and gradually increase from tonight onwards as a high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. This will also push a front or remnants of the frontal boundary currently near 25N closer to the area by the end of the forecast period, promoting further pooling of low-level moisture.
Taking into consideration the expected wet pattern and the already saturated soils, a Flash Flood Watch could be issued for the second part of the short-term period as the potential for flash flooding and mudslides continues to increase. Residents and visitors are urged to stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...

Deeper convection activity will be reduced this weekend, transitioning to a wetter and unstable pattern by the beginning of the workweek. The induced low mentioned in the last discussion is still expected to develop in the Central Atlantic, along with a surface high pressure in the Western Atlantic. Based on the latest model guidance, the surface high should strengthen and migrate eastward, pushing the low pressure more to the south, promoting winds with a southerly component. A transition to a "drier" pattern is still expected by Saturday due to ridging aloft. However, low to mid level moisture content will remain high. In terms of instability, upper- level dynamics with 250 mb wind speeds around 70 knots are still expected, which could bring ventilation aloft.
Although temperatures in the 500 mb layer should increase to seasonal values, instability will be present. Taking that into consideration, the conditions will be favorable for deep convection activity. Overall, light to moderate showers will move occasionally along windward sections each day. The combination of above-normal moisture, light 0 - 3 km winds, local effects, and diurnal heating will enhance afternoon convection each day of the forecast, mainly over the interior and northern/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Due to saturated soils and elevated river and stream flows, the potential of flooding will increase, isolated urban and small stream flooding are likely. Model guidance is projecting a wetter scenario for Tuesday, with another mid to high-level trough approaching the Caribbean. At the moment, there's a medium chance of looking above climatological normal moisture content, elevating the potential of flooding to elevated.

If winds with the southerly component prevail, temperatures may increase to near above climatological normals. However, the risk of heat should remain low for the rest of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions and VCSH in general expected across all terminals through the period. However, SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop over the interior of PR btw 29/16-22z, causing mostly VCTS across all PR terminals and tempo MVFR conds at TJPS. Weak sea breezes will dominate btw 29/13-20z, with a NE component becoming the dominant wind direction aft 29/22z.



MARINE

Light to moderate easterly winds will continue today, turning from the northeast tonight. A deep layer trough will continue to promote an unstable weather pattern across the local waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist, producing localized hazardous marine conditions, small craft should exercise caution.

BEACH FORECAST

Latest buoy observations show pulses of a fading long-period northeasterly swell, but wave heights remain between 2 - 3 feet.
No significant marine events are expected for the next few days.
Therefore, the risk of rip current will remain moderate for the beaches in northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and possibly St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands by the end of the workweek.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.