Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tallaboa, PR

SHORT TERM
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

We had a short break from the unsettled weather conditions early in the morning. Then, showers and thunderstorms developed from mid-morning into the afternoon, with streamers developing downwind from the US Virgin Islands and in PR across the windward locations, the Luquillo Mountain Range, and the Cordillera Central in PR. These showers then intensify into the afternoon, producing flooding rains. Currently, rainfall amounts are ranging between 1.00 and 3.00, along a line of showers extending from Coamo to Maricao. The maximum temperatures observed ranged in the low 90s or upper 80s across lower elevations and the low 80s in the mountains. Today's winds began to shift more from the ENE but remained light, with the influence of the sea breeze but gusty near showers and thunderstorms.

For the rest of this afternoon, we expect another active weather day as a mid to upper-level trough lingers near the region, interacting with abundant tropical moisture pooling over us. Winds are slowly shifting from the east-northeast and will continue to veer through tomorrow, directing rain activity toward the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Given the saturated soils and high river levels, the threat of flooding remains elevated across much of the island, with a continued risk of sudden landslides in steep areas. Stay informed and monitor official weather updates.

After today's afternoon convection dissipation, which will slowly happen by this evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the US Virgin Islands, the eastern third of PR, and their surrounding waters across most islands overnight and early tomorrow morning. Furthermore, the ongoing wet and unstable pattern, combined with weak steering winds in the lower atmosphere (1–3 km), could prolong heavy downpours, especially along and near mountainous areas, increasing the risk of flooding and mudslides.
Model guidance indicates that deep tropical moisture will replace today's drier mid-to upper-level air mass from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening, supporting more widespread and organized afternoon convection. With already saturated soils and high river levels, the threat of flooding and landslides remains significant.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...

Deeper convection activity will be reduced this weekend, transitioning to a wetter and unstable pattern by the beginning of the workweek. The induced low mentioned in the last discussion is still expected to develop in the Central Atlantic, along with a surface high pressure in the Western Atlantic. Based on the latest model guidance, the surface high should strengthen and migrate eastward, pushing the low pressure more to the south, promoting winds with a southerly component. A transition to a "drier" pattern is still expected by Saturday due to ridging aloft. However, low to mid level moisture content will remain high. In terms of instability, upper- level dynamics with 250 mb wind speeds around 70 knots are still expected, which could bring ventilation aloft. Although temperatures in the 500 mb layer should increase to seasonal values, instability will be present.
Taking that into consideration, the conditions will be favorable for deep convection activity. Overall, light to moderate showers will move occasionally along windward sections each day. The combination of above-normal moisture, light 0 - 3 km winds, local effects, and diurnal heating will enhance afternoon convection each day of the forecast, mainly over the interior and northern/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Due to saturated soils and elevated river and stream flows, the potential of flooding will increase, isolated urban and small stream flooding are likely. Model guidance is projecting a wetter scenario for Tuesday, with another mid to high-level trough approaching the Caribbean. At the moment, there's a medium chance of looking above climatological normal moisture content, elevating the potential of flooding to elevated.

If winds with the southerly component prevail, temperatures may increase to near above climatological normals. However, the risk of heat should remain low for the rest of the period.

AVIATION
(18z) TAFS

SHRA/TSRA will continue to affect the local flying area throughout the fcst prd. This activity may lead to periods of MVFR or IFR conds at the terminals. Thus, TEMPOs will mainly be needed during the following time frames: from 1600-2300 at JBQ/JSJ and from 0600-1200 IST/ISX/JSJ. Winds will generally be around 12 kt, primarily from the ENE, with variations due to sea breezes.
After 29/23, winds will become calm to light and variable, then return from the NE at about 10 knots after 29/13z, also influenced by sea breezes.

MARINE
Mariners should exercise caution across the local waters due to the thunderstorms activity affecting land areas, expected to spread to the surrounding waters.

Light to moderate easterly winds will continue today, turning from the northeast throughout the day. A deep layer trough will continue to promote an unstable weather pattern across the local waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist, producing localized hazardous marine conditions, small craft should exercise caution.

BEACH FORECAST

No significant swell events is anticipated for the next few days.
However, the moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the beaches in northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and possibly for the northern USVI by the weekend.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.