Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emajagua, PR

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 6:43PM Monday August 26, 2019 3:33 AM AST (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:59AMMoonset 3:31PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 941 Pm Ast Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday.. Tropical storm conditions possible. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night.. Tropical storm conditions possible. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday.. Tropical storm conditions possible. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Southeast swell around 4 feet. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
AMZ700 941 Pm Ast Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure over the north central atlantic will continue to promote a moderate east to southeast wind flow through Monday. Drier dusty air will continue through tomorrow associated with somewhat stronger winds. Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate by midweek as tropical storm dorian moves west across the caribbean sea.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emajagua, PR
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location: 18, -65.88     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 260113
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
913 pm ast Sun aug 25 2019

Update
Only minor changes were made to the weather forecast to include
haze on Monday morning and afternoon. Saharan dust will continue
across the area resulting in hazy skies. The 26 00z tjsj sounding
shows precipitable waters of only 1.30 inches and a strong
inversion at 850 mb and another one around 500 mb. In addition,
goes precipitable water satellite derived product shows a large
air mass of drier air east of the islands. Therefore, mainly fair
weather is expected to continue for the beginning of the workweek.

However, a few patches of moisture embedded in the trade winds
could carry passing showers across the eastern half of the
forecast area during the nighttime and early morning hours with
afternoon convection developing across western puerto rico due to
strong diurnal heating.

After that, our attention is shifted toward tropical storm
dorian, currently located about 900 miles east-southeast of the
region. The latest forecast from the national hurricane center
shows this system moving south of puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin
islands on Wednesday and Thursday. The confidence in the forecast
is low at this time and any changes in the track and intensity of
the system will result in adjustments to the local impacts.

Regardless, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms, along
with gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to continue for most of the forecast
period. Hz due to saharan dust is expected on the area through
Monday, but visibilities are expected to remain at p6sm. Vcsh are
expected for tjmz tjbq after 26 17z. The tjsj 26 00z sounding
shows fl050 winds out of the east at 10 to 17 knots.

Marine
Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected to
continue across the local waters. Therefore, small craft operators
are urged to exercise caution. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents for most of the beaches along the northern coast of
puerto rico and the eastern tip of st. Croix in the u.S. Virgin
islands. Seas will become hazardous by the middle of the workweek
as tropical storm dorian approaches the local islands.

Prev discussion issued 129 pm ast Sun aug 25 2019
synopsis...

fairly calm weather is expected for the next several days due to a
saharan air layer that will be with us through Tuesday. Minimal
shower activity is likely during this period. Thereafter, ample
rainfall will occur with the coming of what is now tropical storm
dorian. Though there is substantial uncertainty in the track and
intensity of this storm, the vast majority of forecast models put
the storm to the south of puerto rico, with the intensity at or
less than tropical storm strength. However, its plume of moisture
will still impact the region, with rain beginning Wednesday and
lasting into Friday.

Short term... Today through Tuesday...

only a few light passing showers were noted mainly over the coastal
waters during the late morning hours, with limited or no shower
activity observed or reported over land areas. A drier airmass
accompanying the saharan air layer with widespread suspended saharan
dust particulates is expected to spread across the region through
early Tuesday. This will promote increasingly hazy conditions and
overall fair weather skies. However pockets of residual moisture
across the islands along with local effects and daytime heating may
still lead to afternoon shower development across portions of puerto
rico and just down stream of the adjacent islands under the dominant
easterly wind flow.

Recent tjsj 245 12z upper air sounding showed diminishing layered
precipitable water value now down to 1.57 inches with a continued
decline expected through Monday based on latest GFS model guidance
and the tjsj forecast sounding. Overall model guidance continued to
suggest limited shower activity at least through Tuesday, as a
result of, a dry stable air mass. Therefore expect overall fair
weather with hazy skies to prevail through Tuesday with limited
shower activity across the adjacent islands and puerto rico.

However, development of a few showers can't be ruled out, as a
result of, diurnal heating and local effects each afternoon mainly
over the interior and western areas of puerto rico and on the west
end and downstream of the u.S. Virgin islands.

Long term... Wednesday through Sunday...

our weather will become much more active for the rest of the
workweek as tropical storm dorian enters the caribbean. At this
point, confidence is increasing that this storm will pass to the
south of puerto rico beginning Wednesday morning. Given its
trajectory of moving west northwest, this storm is expected to
impact the dominican republic by Thursday. The intensity forecast is
more difficult, as there are many factors at play. Sea surface
temperatures are very ideal for further development and
organization. However, ample dry air and wind shear over the
caribbean will create a hostile environment for strengthening.

Thus, this system is expected to pass by to our south, likely as a
tropical storm or weaker.

Regardless of uncertainties to the forecasted track and intensity,
our region will still be impacted by this storm. The moisture plume
is expected to move into the uvsi and pr by Wednesday morning and
into the afternoon. Plenty of rainfall is likely with this
system, though it is too soon to estimate rainfall amounts. The
likely impacts of this system will be: heavy rain, urban and
small stream flooding, and thunderstorms with gusty winds and
frequent lightning. The moisture looks to impact us especially
Wednesday, but possibly through Friday. Saturday and Sunday looks
drier, but with an upper tropospheric trough forecasted to be to
our north, it remains to be seen how that might work to enhance
shower activity over the region for the end of the week.

Aviation...

vfr cond will continue thru fcst prd. Isold-sct shra may
develop in and around tjbq and tjmz fm 25 18z-25 22z. Incr hz alqds
across usvi and pr with arrival of suspended saharan dust
particulates across the local flying area... But so far no
restrictions to flight vsby fcst. Sfc wind from e-se 10 to 15 kts
with higher gusts bcmg 10 kts or less aft 25 22z.

Marine...

with the drier air and saharan dust settling over the region for the
next several days, tranquil yet hazy conditions are expected
through Tuesday. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected from
the east, with seas up to 5 feet. There is a moderate risk for
rip currents for most local beaches for puerto rico and the usvi
for the next few days. Thereafter into Wednesday, tropical storm
dorian is expected to pass to our south, and will likely
deteriorate marine cointon's through Thursday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 81 90 79 88 20 20 20 30
stt 81 90 79 91 20 20 20 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Erg
long term... .Ds


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 5 mi45 min 85°F 76°F
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 18 mi108 min NNE 4.1 79°F 1017 hPa74°F
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 23 mi45 min ENE 2.9 G 11 84°F 85°F1016.2 hPa
41056 28 mi93 min E 9.7 G 14 84°F 85°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (-0.7)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 34 mi45 min SE 5.1 G 7 82°F 85°F1016.1 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 35 mi93 min SE 9.7 G 12 83°F 85°F3 ft1015.3 hPa (-0.9)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 37 mi51 min 83°F 87°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Yabucoa Harbor, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR30 mi4.6 hrsESE 410.00 miA Few Clouds82°F73°F74%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E6E5E7E10E11E12E12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3SE8E10E12E15E15NE15E14E16NE18
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Maunabo, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Maunabo
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Mon -- 01:58 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:08 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM AST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:30 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:53 PM AST     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.60.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.80.80.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
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Mon -- 01:11 AM AST     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:57 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:06 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:06 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM AST     0.32 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:55 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:53 PM AST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:30 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:32 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:41 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:14 PM AST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:36 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.20.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.70.80.70.50.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.