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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1057 Am Ast Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.

AMZ700 1057 Am Ast Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A broad surface high pressure building over the central atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A cold front will move eastward across the western atlantic, approaching the northeastern caribbean from the northwest by Friday. A northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems across the central atlantic will arrive from mid-week onward.

FXCA62 TJSJ 050850 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 450 AM AST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 450 AM AST Tue Dec 5 2023

The stable weather pattern will prevail under an easterly wind flow through at least late Wednesday night; then winds will return from the east-southeast Thursday and Friday, returning more from the east to east-northeast during the weekend into next week.
Fragments of moisture will arrive occasionally, producing passing showers across the windward sections. A frontal boundary will approach by the end of the workweek, pooling moisture across the region. Winds will increase during the weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...

Variable weather conditions prevailed across the local region in the night hours. The Doppler Radar observed light to moderate showers over the local waters streaming over the southeastern and northeastern sections of Puerto Rico early last night. Shower activity moves into the interior early this morning, affecting Naranjito, Comerio, and Aguas Buenas. According to the Doppler Radar rainfall estimates, nearly 0.50 inches fell over some sections of the southeastern PR. Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 70s across the coastal areas and into the low to mid 60s across the mountain areas.

A stable pattern will prevail for the rest of the day into tomorrow due to a mid-upper level ridge just over the Western Atlantic. The influence of this ridge will maintain the islands under drier air aloft, limiting vertical development. Although stable weather conditions will persist for most of the whole period, trap moisture at 850 mb, as suggested by GOES-derived Imagery, precipitable water values will continue to remain over the area for the early morning hours. A much drier airmass is forecast to filter into the area by the afternoon, eroding all the available R. humidity between 850-500 mb. According to the latest model guidance, precipitable waters will drop two standard deviations below the climatological normal. Therefore, stable weather conditions with minimal rainfall activity are forecasted, with localized shower activity across the interior of Puerto Rico.

By the last part of the period, a more east-southeastern wind flow will be present by the interaction of the surface high pressure and a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic. This wind flow will drag a shallow patch of moisture from the Caribbean, increasing the chances for an advective pattern by Thursday.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...

A mid-level high pressure will slowly build across the region Friday into the weekend, lingering aloft through at least Tuesday of next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest will induce pre-frontal troughs across the Northeast Caribbean, pooling near to above-normal precipitable water over Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and surrounding waters on Friday. Model guidance put the remnants of the cold front lingering north of the region until it dissipates Saturday and Sunday. An easterly perturbation may also interact with the lingering frontal boundary on Sunday. Under this weather pattern, the winds will prevail mainly from the east to east- northeast, pushing clouds and showers across the windward sections, and showery weather could be possible some days.

After the frontal boundary dissipates, a surface high pressure will build north of the area, increasing the winds Sunday through Tuesday promoting an advective pattern. This advective pattern typically pushes fragments of moisture that produce showery weather from time to time. While the afternoon convection associated with sea breezes does not play an essential role across the western sections, and the rain is observed mainly across the windward areas, or the eastern and northern portions of Puerto Rico, and across the surrounding waters of the U.S. Virgin Islands, moving inland at times.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM AST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions will persist for all the TAF sites during the period.
Winds will remain light and VRB until 05/14Z, increasing up to 14 knots by the afternoon with sea breeze variation. Brief SHRA over the interior might result in SHRA over TJBQ at 05/19Z. Wind will diminish at 05/22Z.

MARINE
Issued at 450 AM AST Tue Dec 5 2023

A broad surface high pressure building over the Central Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A cold front will move eastward across the Western Atlantic, approaching the Northeastern Caribbean from the northwest by Friday.
A northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems across the Central Atlantic will arrive from mid-week onward.

BEACH FORECAST

Life-threatening rip currents will develop across the eastern sections in St Croix. We have a moderate risk of rip currents for most of the beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
However, the risk is low from Santa Isabel to Cabo Rojo.

Please exercise caution across the north and east-facing beaches of the islands throughout the week as life-threatening rip currents may develop. A northeasterly swell will arrive from mid- week onward, affecting these beaches.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for AMZ711- 723.

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Puerto Maunabo
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:46 AM AST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:51 AM AST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:32 AM AST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:02 PM AST     0.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM AST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Maunabo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:51 AM AST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:53 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:05 AM AST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:19 AM AST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:56 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:22 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:59 PM AST     0.32 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:08 PM AST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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