Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Culebra, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:05PM Friday January 17, 2020 1:01 PM AST (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:07AMMoonset 12:17PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1012 Am Ast Fri Jan 17 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers through the day.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 9 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 8 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. East swell 4 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 1012 Am Ast Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Marine conditions have improved considerably for today. However, tonight winds and seas will be picking up, generating choppy seas across the local waters. By Saturday, winds and seas are expected to increase further more as a northerly swell and wind-driven seas approach the forecast area, generating hazardous marine conditions through early next week. Isolated shower activity is still expected through Friday, but an increase in shower frequency, along with gusty conditions, is expected during the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Culebra, PR
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location: 18.02, -64.67     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 171613 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1213 PM AST Fri Jan 17 2020

UPDATE. Sounding came in considerably drier than yesterday as expected. No showers have formed over land except for sprinkles on the northeast side of El Yunque. No changes from previous assessment. Minor changes to grids for slight improvement in POPs for Saturday night.

AVIATION. No changes.

MARINE. Seas will increase abruptly as north northwest swell moves into the area Saturday and Saturday night. Winds will increase just before this, so mariners will be fighting a north northwest swell with east northeast wind waves. Atlantic waters and passages will be quite hazardous.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 521 AM AST Fri Jan 17 2020/

SYNOPSIS . A surface high pressure over the north Atlantic will promote a moderate easterly wind flow across the forecast area today, but winds are expected to increase as another surface high pressure builds across the western Atlantic during the weekend. Although drier air will support fair weather conditions today, the remnants of an old frontal boundary will increase the chance for showers tonight into the weekend. A relatively wet weather pattern is expected through most of next week as a surface induced trough crosses the region by midweek and the remnants of another frontal boundary are steered into the area by the end of the workweek under favorable conditions aloft.

SHORT TERM . Today through Sunday .

The drier than normal moisture will prevail today across the local area, but little patches of moisture will start moving in tonight into Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the local area for Sunday. That said, the precipitable water values are not forecast to be above normal from now through Sunday, it will simply go from much below normal today to near normal on Sunday, with precipitable water values at around 0.9 inches this morning to about 1.35 inches on Sunday. This means that little to no shower activity is expected for most of the day today, although there is a chance of locally induced showers across the SW sections of PR this afternoon, but scattered shower activity is expected to make a return to the local area, mainly the Atlantic waters, north and eastern PR and the northern USVI tonight as moisture increases. These sections of the forecast area are expected to have scattered shower activity through Saturday as the front keeps pushing through from the north, causing also the Caribbean waters and Saint Croix island to observe scattered shower activity on Saturday and Sunday. Most of this shower activity is expected to be relatively light, but moderate across isolated areas, which could cause ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas.

There is also an increase in wind speeds that are expected this weekend. A surface high pressure will move into the western Atlantic and north of the local islands, which will tighten the pressure gradient, causing breeze conditions to gradually start on Saturday. Although not as breezy as the event we had a few days ago, it will be significant enough to cause hazardous marine conditions and for the sea breeze to not develop across western PR since there will be a good NE wind at around 15-20 mph from Saturday into Sunday. As far as temperatures go, the daytime high temps today will be in the mod 80s across the low elevations of PR and across the USVI, and in the mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations of PR, slightly cooler, about 1-3 degrees cooler on Saturday.

LONG TERM . Monday through Friday .

Recent model guidance continues to support a relatively wet weather pattern during the long-term forecast period with an increasing pattern of shower frequency and areal coverage as the week progresses. As a surface high pressure continue to move eastward across the north Atlantic, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, enhanced by low-level convergence, will continue to move into the region under an east to southeast wind flow. Intermittent patches of moisture will cause precipitable water values to peak around 1.5 inches on Monday. Although favorable conditions aloft are not expected due to the presence of a mid- level ridge, shallow shower activity is expected to affect the area. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, a surface induce trough is forecast to approach and cross the region from the northwest. In the meantime, a strong mid-to upper level trough will push the mid-level ridge eastward into the central Atlantic and away from the region by midweek. These events will lead to an increase in shower activity due to favorable conditions aloft and an increase in instability and low-level convergence. As the surface trough tilts eastward with its axis extending into the northeastern Caribbean, a saddle will develop over the area causing winds to diminish and become variable by late Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter, another surface high pressure moving across the western Atlantic will cause winds to turn from the northeast, steering the remnants of another frontal boundary and trailing moisture from the aforementioned trough into the region through the end of the workweek.

AVIATION . VFR conds expected across the local terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a chance of VCSH at TJMZ after 17/18Z and for TIST and TJSJ overnight tonight after 18/00Z as ISOL/SCT SHRA could be observed across the area, otherwise fair weather is expected. Winds will be generally between 5 and 10 kts through 17/13Z, increasing thereafter to 10-15 kts with occasional gusts from the east to east northeast with sea breeze variations.

MARINE . Although marine conditions have improved, small craft operators are urged to exercise caution across most of the local waters due to choppy seas up to 6 feet. These conditions will hold through late Friday night, but another northerly swell and wind- driven seas will generate hazardous marine conditions during the weekend into early next week. As a result, Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting on Saturday morning. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for beaches along the north coast of Puerto Rico, as well as most beaches in Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. The risk will elevate to high as marine conditions deteriorate on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 84 73 82 72 / 20 30 50 70 STT 85 76 84 75 / 10 30 40 60

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for Mayaguez and Vicinity-Vieques.

High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for Culebra.

VI . High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for St Thomas. St John. and Adjacent Islands.

High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for St Croix.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 PM AST Monday for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N- Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters OF Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.



SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . FRG PUBLIC DESK . ERG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 17 mi62 min E 12 G 16 80°F 81°F3 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.0)
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 19 mi68 min NE 8 G 14 80°F1018.7 hPa
LAMV3 21 mi68 min 80°F
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 23 mi68 min SE 6 G 12 82°F 80°F1019.1 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 25 mi62 min 1019.2 hPa (-0.3)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 39 mi62 min 81°F
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 43 mi62 min 1019.5 hPa (+0.0)
41056 45 mi62 min E 9.7 G 12 80°F 81°F3 ft1018.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Christiansted Harbor, St Croix, VI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Christiansted Harbor, St Croix, Virgin Islands
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Benner Bay, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands
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Benner Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:08 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:56 AM AST     0.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM AST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:00 AM AST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 12:18 PM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:33 PM AST     0.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:04 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:06 PM AST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.