Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puerto Real, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday...

Scattered showers were observed overnight moving over the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters and passages. Although, some of these showers moved inland over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, leaving minimal accumulations. Minimum temperatures were from the mid 70s to low 80s along the coastal and urban areas to the upper 60s to low 70s across the mountains. Winds were light from the east-northeast with land-breeze variations.

A mid to upper level high pressure will continue to displace the TUTT-low westward into the Hispaniola and Cuba, bringing stable condtions aloft across the northeastern Caribbean. At the surface, trade wind perturbations will move into the islands today into Tuesday, promoting an increase in showers over the windward portions of the islands during the morning hours. Later in the day, the combination of daytime heating, local orographic effects and the available moisture will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms. In particular, across the Central Mountain Range into the western municipalities of Puerto Rico, as well downwind from el Yunque into the San Juan metro area and adjacent municipalities.

A tropical wave is expected to reach the islands by Wednesday, increasing the moisture content across the region. The latest precipitable water content (PWAT) guidance suggest values between 1.9 to 2.30 inches during the period. Therefore, increasing the potential to observe showers and thunderstorms across all islands through Thursday. At this time, there is a limited to elevated risk to observe ponding of water in roads and poorly drainage areas, as well as localized flooding in urban areas, roads and small streams.

Warm to hot temperatures will remain the first half of the week across the area with maximum temperatures reaching upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas each day. Heat indices are expected to be above the 100 degrees Fahrenheit each day as well, due to the combination of high temperatures and high moisture.
Residents and visitors, please be aware of these conditions and plan accordingly if planning to do outdoor activities under sun exposure.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...

On Thursday, southeasterly winds and an area of high moisture content trailing a departing tropical wave will aid in the development of early morning showers between the USVI and eastern PR, followed by afternoon thunderstorms over west/northwest PR.
At the same time, a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) with moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust is expected to gradually fill across the region. This will promote hazy skies, reduced visibility, and poor air quality conditions through at least Friday. The higher humidity content at the surface and the southeast component in the winds will cause higher than normal heat indices across most coastal and urban areas of the islands, but particularly across the north and west coast of PR. Latest guidance suggest Heat Advisory to Extreme Heat Warning conditions before the onset of afternoon convection, and in cloud/rain-free areas.

Also, warmer minimum temperatures at night due to the SAL preventing efficient cooling at the surface will cause that days begin warmer than normal. Therefore, hot temperatures are expected to continue through at least Saturday and mainly across most coastal and urban areas of PR. Heat advisory conditions will likely continue each day. Residents and visitors, are advised to take appropriate precautions during this period, particularly those who are sensitive to heat and poor air quality conditions.

A TUTT-low and an induced low-level trough are expected to move across the northeastern Caribbean early in the weekend. This will bring an increase in shower activity again across the islands.
Another tropical wave is expected to move on Monday.



AVIATION

(06Z TAFS)

VFR conds will prevail across all terminals thru the next 24 hrs.
However, afternoon SHRA/TSRA will develop across the western interior affecting mainly TJBQ aft 14/17Z. Brief MVFR conds possible btw 14/17-23Z. East winds expected btw 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 14/13Z.



MARINE

A surface high pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic early this week. Two tropical waves will move across the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, moderate to locally fresh trades and choppy seas are expected across the regional waters by midweek. Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity is expected from Tuesday through Thursday. Hazy conditions due to Saharan dust will return from Thursday onward.



BEACH FORECAST

Rip current risk remains low across local beaches, but life- threatening rip currents can still form near structures like groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow local beach safety guidance.

By late Tuesday, a moderate risk of rip currents will return along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and St. Croix, driven by increasing winds.

Hot and humid conditions will continue throughout the week. Stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade, and limit outdoor activity during peak heat hours.



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.