Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Puerto Real, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:56PM Sunday December 15, 2019 8:27 AM AST (12:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 9:57AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ745 Coastal Waters Of Southwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 503 Am Ast Sun Dec 15 2019
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers, then isolated light rain.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 503 Am Ast Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the local waters this morning, due to a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the north central atlantic. Winds will diminish somewhat later today, before picking back up Monday. These brisk trade winds will persist into midweek, and hazardous seas will return to a broader area on Monday. Isolated to scattered trade wind showers with gusty winds are also expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puerto Real, PR
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location: 18.08, -67.18     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 150938 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 538 AM AST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS.

A moist southeasterly flow will continue to promote passing showers across the area today. Winds will diminish slightly today, picking up again tomorrow out of the east. The pattern of passing showers overnight and in the morning, with afternoon showers due to local and diurnal effects will persist, and is likely to be enhanced with the passage of a surface trough on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Tuesday .

A trough over Hispaniola and weak surface ridge northeast of the region are promoting a moist southeast wind flow across the region, which has caused showers to move across the USVI and over the southeast/eastern interior sections of PR. Gusty winds around 25 mph and rainfall amounts up to one inch were observed with the heaviest showers, mainly over SE PR during the overnight hours. Low level moisture will continue high through early in the afternoon and passing showers in a 10-15 kt southeast steering wind flow are expected to move at times over the USVI and east/southeast sections of PR. Locally induced afternoon showers are expected to develop mainly over NW PR. Precipitable water content (PWAT) is forecast to drop from near 2 inches this morning to around 1.20 inches tonight and mostly isolated shower activity is expected across the region.

For Monday, a low to mid-level ridge is forecast to build just north of the islands, this will promote a brisk east to northeast wind flow and trade wind shower activity moving across the USVI and northeast sections of PR through the day. Diurnally induced showers are expected to develop mainly over the SW quadrant of PR. On Tuesday, a surface trough is forecast to move from the east, while a broad surface high anchors over the central Atlantic. This will cause winds to shift once again from the southeast and showers with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected on Tuesday afternoon over the eastern sections as well over the NW quadrant of PR.

LONG TERM. Wednesday through Monday .

The large zonal ridge continues to influence conditions over the local islands on Wednesday. As it is forecast to be pulling away from the area, moving to the east, winds over the local area will veer slightly to out of the SE, while also diminishing somewhat through the day and into Thursday. A dry slot will push through the area on Wednesday into early Thursday; combined with unfavorable conditions aloft, this will act to inhibit somewhat shower activity over the local islands. Brief passing showers are still anticipated, as well as afternoon showers due to local effects and diurnal heating. Patches of moisture carried in on the trade winds will begin filtering into the area on Thursday, associated with the passage to our south of a developing disturbance. These patches of moisture will continue passing over the area into Friday, and an increase in shower activity is likely. Another small dry slot is anticipated for late Friday into Saturday, again associated with a decrease in - but not an elimination of - shower activity across the forecast area.

On Saturday, an inverted trough is expected to develop over the western Caribbean, stretching northward to off the coast of the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon. Beyond this point, there is increasing uncertainty in the synoptic pattern. This trough will slowly approach the area from the west during the day on Sunday, and begin sweeping through on Monday. Cyclogenesis of some kind is likely in the western Atlantic, off the coast of the United States, within this trough; the location, timing, and intensity are uncertain, though, at this time. Both the ECMWF and the GFS now show some notable development of a low, with a front that would extend southward enough to impact the local islands. Today, it is the ECMWF that is more bullish with the development and intensification of this low, showing very rapid cyclogenesis, while the GFS solution suggests a somewhat more modest intensification, taking place further south. Given that this is all a week out, and the lack of good consensus from the models, or even good consistency between runs, there remain plenty of reasons to be skeptical of this theoretical future low, especially in terms of its intensity or the potential for explosive cyclogenesis. All of this to say that, presently, it looks likely that there will be a trough to our west on Sunday that will pass over the area on Monday, though there is uncertainty in the magnitude of the impacts. A more southerly flow is therefore likely Sunday into Monday, with a northwesterly flow behind the trough. Increased shower activity is likely for Sunday and especially Monday, and with winds out of the south on those days, the most affected areas will be southern Puerto Rico during the overnight and morning, and northern Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

AVIATION.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals. However, trade wind showers could move at times across the USVI terminals as well at TJSJ/TJPS through the morning hours. Between 16z-20z SHRA over west PR could cause tempo MVFR conds at TJBQ. East to southeast winds expected at 10-15 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 14z.

MARINE.

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds continue this morning, with speeds between 15 and 20 knots; this will result in continuing rough, choppy seas and hazardous conditions across a large portion of the local waters. Though winds are forecast to diminish slightly later in the day today, tomorrow will see a resumption of these enhanced winds. Small Craft Advisories continue for the majority of the local waters, except for nearshore waters of southern and western Puerto Rico. With the increase in winds tomorrow, building seas are anticipated as well. As such, Small Craft Advisories will be required for Monday afternoon in the offshore Caribbean waters, Mona Passage, and the nearshore waters surrounding the U.S. Virgin Islands. There remains a high risk of rip currents at most northern beaches of Puerto Rico, and a moderate to high risk at the beaches of St. Croix and Culebra. With the exception of southwestern Puerto Rico, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected today for the rest of the local beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 86 75 85 74 / 50 50 50 40 STT 85 76 86 76 / 40 50 50 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra.

VI . High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for St Croix.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.



SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . CRS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 10 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 9.9 79°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 10 mi63 min 82°F1016.6 hPa
PTRP4 20 mi32 min E 6 G 7 77°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 21 mi27 min 83°F3 ft
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 37 mi87 min E 16 G 18 79°F 82°F4 ft1015 hPa (+1.3)
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 37 mi57 min Calm G 0
MISP4 - 9759938 - Mona Island, PR 40 mi57 min 79°F 82°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Mayaguez, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJMZ

Wind History from JMZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------E6E5E8E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:52 AM AST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:12 AM AST     1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:06 PM AST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:28 PM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 PM AST     0.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.811.31.41.31.210.70.50.40.30.40.40.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Magueyes Island, Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico
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Magueyes Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:42 AM AST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:06 PM AST     0.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:27 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.20.30.40.60.70.70.80.80.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.