Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Puerto Real, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 6:59PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:08 PM AST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ745 Coastal Waters Of Southwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1038 Am Ast Mon Aug 10 2020
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers through the day.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 1038 Am Ast Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Light to moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the regional waters during the next few days. However, locally higher winds may result in choppy conditions, especially in the nearshore waters of northern puerto rico. A tropical wave is forecast to move across the area, leading to gradually deteriorating marine conditions during the latter part of the workweek. Shower and Thunderstorm activity is also expected to increase with the passage of the wave.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puerto Real, PR
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location: 18.08, -67.18     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 101525 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1125 AM AST Mon Aug 10 2020

UPDATE.

Passing low level clouds and showers continued to affect the coastal waters and parts of the islands during the morning hours, as a weekly induced low level trough crosses the area. Recent TJSJ 10/12Z upper air sounding suggest a slight increase in the layered precipitable water value of 1.68 inches compared to yesterday's 1.50 inches. Most of this moisture was however trapped below 700 millibars where a fairly decent cap inversion is maintained. Afternoon shower development will still be locally and diurnally induced, but some may be locally enhanced especially over parts of the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. The U.S. Virgin Islands may still continue to experience some passing showers in and around the islands during the rest of the day, but no significant rainfall accumulations are anticipated at this time. No changes make to the inherited short term forecast package and reasoning at this time.

AVIATION UPDATE. No change to previous AVN discussion. VFR conds durg prd SCT-BKN lyrs nr FL025. FL050 with passing SHRA enroute btw islands and ovr regional waters. No sig operational wx impacts at all terminals attm.

MARINE UPDATE. No change to previous marine discussion. Recent data from the surrounding buoys suggest continued subsiding seas with winds between 10 to 15 knots and seas of 4 feet or less. Increasing winds and seas still expected by mid-week with the approach of a tropical wave previously mentioned.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 412 AM AST Mon Aug 10 2020/

SYNOPSIS .

A fairly typical weather pattern is expected to prevail across the area for the first half of the workweek, though shower activity will be somewhat inhibited due to relatively low moisture levels and lack of favorable dynamics aloft. This is expected to change around midweek, with a tropical wave forecast to push into the area late on Wednesday. Increasing showers are expected for late Wednesday afternoon, and increased passing shower activity overnight into early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM . Today through Wednesday .

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the local islands during the overnight and early morning hours with a few sprinkles noted over the local waters and coastal areas. The overnight low temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at lower elevations. Winds were from the east northeast at 10 MPH.

A mid to upper level ridge will continue to hold across the local islands through the forecast cycle. At lower levels, a surface high pressure located across the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate east-northeast winds across the northeastern Caribbean for much of the workweek. The next tropical wave passage, and best moisture advection across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, is expected late Wednesday into Thursday, with precipitable water reaching about 2.0 inches. Nevertheless, the ridge aloft holds, with upper level dynamics remaining marginal.

Therefore, continue to expect mainly fair weather conditions, with locally-induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico each afternoon. The intensity and areal coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase on Wednesday, as the tropical wave approaches the forecast area. Under the east northeast wind flow, maximum temperatures will continue to range from the low 90s in the lower elevations to the upper 70s in the highest mountains.

LONG TERM . Thursday through Tuesday .

On Thursday, a tropical wave is forecast to continue traversing the area, with the bulk of the moisture being during the morning in the west. Dry air will follow the wave, though patches of moisture will stream across the area from time to time late Thursday into Saturday. The strongest moisture during this time is forecast to impact the area overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Aloft, conditions are not expected to be favorable for convective development during this time. As such, the typical pattern of showers is expected, with local effects dominating; passing showers are possible during the nights and mornings in the east, and the bulk of the afternoon showers will be in western and interior portions of Puerto Rico. With winds shifting to be closer to east- northeast on Friday, some of the showers may affect more of southwestern Puerto Rico as well.

On Saturday, a relatively strong tropical wave is forecast to approach the region, pressing into the area likely during the afternoon. There remains substantial uncertainty with respect to the forecast for this wave, especially in terms of its strength and development. As such, it is difficult to ascertain for certain what the exact impacts will be. But currently, the slightly more likely scenario has enhanced moisture across the area through Sunday, with some lingering moisture possible for Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, some improvements are expected aloft, in terms of potential support for convection. The mid-level ridge is forecast to have pulled away by Saturday, and in the upper-levels, the ridge is expected to weaken during the latter half of the weekend. As such, an increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected starting late Saturday, especially with the afternoon showers. The peak in afternoon convection would likely be in northwestern and interior Puerto Rico, with a secondary maximum in the east due to streamer development. But again, with this being several days out and the uncertainty being relatively high, this forecast is certainly subject to change.

With the drying trend for Monday into Tuesday, a decrease in showers is anticipated. The typical pattern is expected to again dominate across the area, with the highest potential for afternoon showers in the northwest and interior, and passing showers in the east overnight and into the morning.

AVIATION .

VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds will continue from the east northeast at 10 knots, increasing at around 15 knots with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 10/13z. VCSH are possible at JBQ aft 10/16z.

MARINE .

Seas of up to 5 feet are anticipated across the local waters, accompanied by generally light to moderate trade winds. Locally stronger winds are possible, most notably in the nearshore waters of northern Puerto Rico, where winds to 20 knots are forecast. Deteriorating marine conditions are anticipated for Wednesday into Thursday, with the passage of a tropical wave over the region. There is a moderate risk of rip currents at beaches of northwestern and north central Puerto Rico, as well as eastern Culebra, Vieques, and St. Croix.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 20 STT 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . RAM LONG TERM . TW PUBLIC DESK . ERG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 10 mi51 min S 8.9 G 12 85°F 85°F1015 hPa
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 10 mi57 min 85°F 87°F1015.7 hPa
PTRP4 20 mi24 min NNE 9.9 G 16 85°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 21 mi43 min 85°F2 ft
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 37 mi129 min E 14 G 16 85°F 85°F3 ft1014.9 hPa (-0.4)
MISP4 - 9759938 - Mona Island, PR 40 mi51 min 85°F 85°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Mayaguez, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJMZ

Wind History from JMZ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
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Mon -- 12:25 AM AST     0.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM AST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 AM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:38 PM AST     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM AST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:38 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.80.70.50.40.30.20.30.40.60.70.9110.90.80.70.60.50.50.50.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Magueyes Island, Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico
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Magueyes Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:09 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM AST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 AM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:57 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM AST     0.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:38 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.