Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santo Domingo, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...

Wet and unstable conditions prevailed across the islands today due to a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low near the local area. During the morning hours scattered showers affected St. Croix.
However, these showers moved fast over the island leaving minor accumulations. Then, in the afternoon showers started to develop across the San Juan metro area and extended to adjacent municipalities. Showers and thunderstorms also formed over the Cordillera Central towards western Puerto Rico. Doppler radar estimated between 2.0 to 3.0 inches of rain over these areas, especially over San Sebastian. Flood Advisories, Flash Flood Warnings and Special Weather Statements were issued across these sectors. The hot trend continues across the region, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal and urban municipalities of northern and western Puerto Rico, and St. Croix. A Heat Advisory was in effect for these areas as well.

The shower activity over western and southern Puerto Rico will gradually dissipate before sunset. Mainly fair weather is expected for the rest of the region overnight with few passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. On Monday, a patch of drier air will filter into the region with precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Nonetheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the interior and western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours due to the combination of daytime heating and local effects. This activity could lead to flooding in urban areas and small streams. A weak tropical wave will move south of the area by Monday night into Tuesday, increasing moisture across the region. Despite of the expected activity, hot temperatures will persist. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s everyday through the rest of the period.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave, Invest 94L, which is located west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The potential for development is medium at this time, but the system could encounter conditions more favorable for development for the middle or latter part of the week. Since the system is still about 5 to 6 days away from the local islands, uncertainty is very high, but users should stay tuned for further updates.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2024/

Based on recent model guidance and the overall weather pattern, the easterly winds will increase while low level moisture will continue to erode Wednesday through Thursday. By Friday and through at least late Saturday or early Sunday, moisture pooling and low level convergence and instability will increase due to the approach of a vigorous tropical wave and broad low level moisture field so far forecast to spread across the region. The latest layered precipitable water (PWAT) products suggest overall values to diminish and range between 1.65 to 1.80 inches Wednesday through Thursday but significantly increasing to between 2.0 to 2.5 inches Friday through Saturday. This along with good ventilation aloft, will aid in enhancing overnight and afternoon shower development across the islands and coastal waters during the latter portion of the period and at least until early Sunday. Overall weather conditions are expected to improve thereafter with a return of light to moderate east to southeast winds. The increasing chance for overnight and afternoon convection Friday through Saturday will also increase the potential for localized flooding impacts in urban areas, on roads, and along some rivers and small streams across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Friday through Saturday.

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies area expected through Thursday becoming variably cloudy with a mix of sunshine and clouds by Friday into the weekend, due to increasing moisture and the approach of the aforementioned tropical wave. Passing overnight and early morning showers will remain possible along parts of the east coastal sections of the islands with afternoon convection expected but mainly focused across the central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico each afternoon through Thursday. There is however increasing chance for more widespread showers across the coastal waters and portions of the islands Friday through Saturday when the overall weather conditions are expected to be the most active part of the period.
Meanwhile the driest and hottest period will be Wednesday through Thursday when a more typical weather pattern is expected with limited showers and isolated thunderstorms focused mainly over the east coastal sections, and across the interior and western Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

SHRA will continue across TJBQ through 22Z, then showers will taper off. Additional activity anticipated in the Caribbean, possibly impacting the USVI terminals, and TJSJ after 14/12Z. After 14/17Z, stronger activity is expected for TJBQ, with periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings expected. Winds are from the ESE at 11-15, with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE

Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will prevail into mid-week as a weak surface high pressure pattern will continue northeast of the region. Slowly decaying long- period northerly swells generated by distant storms will continue to affect to the local Atlantic waters and passages through at least Monday, promoting hazardous seas.

BEACH FORECAST

Slowly decaying long-period north northeasterly swells will continue to reach the local waters from distant storms over the Atlantic through late tonight into Monday. A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the northwestern, northern, and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. There is a moderate risk of rip currents elsewhere. For more details, please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) and Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU).

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711.