Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Esperanza, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:11PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 9:36 AM AST (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:02AMMoonset 3:26PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 417 Am Ast Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas subsiding 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. East swell 4 to 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 5 feet. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 417 Am Ast Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The northerly swell as well as the prevailing southeasterly winds will continue to subside and diminish across the regional waters today, but will still generate hazardous marine conditions. Moderate to locally fresh winds will persist during the period to maintain choppy conditions. Seas should return to below small craft advisory criteria for most areas later tonight. Isolated to scattered showers along a decaying frontal boundary will affect portions of the regional waters and local passages today.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Esperanza, PR
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location: 18.12, -65.46     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 210904 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 504 AM AST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Remnant moisture along a decaying frontal boundary will linger across the region during the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours as winds become more southeasterly. This is in response to the Atlantic high pressure ridge shifting farther northeast into the central Atlantic, and a cold front moving eastwards across the west and southwest Atlantic. Under this wind flow, the moist low level airmass will be replaced by a drier air later today through early Wednesday. By Thursday and into Friday the approach of a cold front and an upper level polar trough will again destabilize the local environment and increase moisture convergence across the region. This will increase cloudiness as well as the enhance for enhanced shower activity. Through at least early Friday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Thursday .

The frontal boundary, which was positioned over Puerto Rico yesterday, will continue to lift to the north while decaying today. The high pressure across the Atlantic lifts to the northeast as a result of an intensifying polar trough across the western Atlantic. As the high scurries away, a more southerly wind flow will prevail over the area. This wind flow will pull pockets of drier air and limited moisture over Puerto Rico and adjacent Islands. The converging southerly winds, shallow moisture, upper-level jet, and troughiness aloft have aided in the development of showers overnight and this morning. Although, the drier air is forecast to continue to increase throughout the day and erode the low-level moisture over Puerto Rico; precipitable water will remain near the 50th percentile for the month of January through Wednesday. Shower development this afternoon will be focused near the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico as a result of the southerly wind flow. Showers that develop will be short-lived as a result of the strong inversion in the mid- levels of the atmosphere.

Wednesday will be a transition day from the relatively drier air mass to a more moist environment. The polar front continues to deepen as a result of a potent upper-level jet and jet streaks with winds of 90 to 115 kts. Moisture ahead of the front will move over the Atlantic waters during the afternoon. The bulk of the moisture will advect in from the southwest winds at 850 mb and 700 mb. The moisture shows when analyzing the relative humidity at 850 and 700 mb. Also, convergence at the surface coupled with increasing moisture, upper-level instability provided by the upper-level jet and diffluence aloft could lead to the development of isolated thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters. The GFS shows 500 mb temperatures of -7 to -8 degrees Celsius; this is adequate to support thunderstorms development. Also, TJSJ sounding at 22/18Z has cape values of 1200 J/kg; this value also supports moderate instability. Due to the above factors, isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop. However, over Puerto Rico and adjacent Islands at this time isolated to scattered showers are prog to develop. This activity will be locally and diurnally induced, but also enhanced by increasing moisture. Then late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, the GFS brings a pre-frontal boundary over Puerto Rico, this will destabilize the atmosphere over the area, and lead to the development of moderate to heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and adjacent Islands. The development of isolated thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon across Puerto Rico and the adjacent Islands. This activity could lead minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways.

LONG TERM. Friday through Tuesday . The surface ridge across the Atlantic is forecast to lift farther northeast into the north central Atlantic, as a cold front will move across the western Atlantic and sink southwards across the region. An amplifying mid to upper- level polar trough will also weaken the ridge aloft resulting in a weakening of the trade wind inversion leading to unstable conditions aloft through at least early Friday. The shift in the weather pattern will result good low level moisture pooling and convergence as the frontal boundary sink southwards across the region through Friday. Model guidance remain persistent and suggests a vigorous mid to upper level jet max crossing the region through early Friday. The combination of the instability aloft and good low level moisture convergence will therefore favor the development of scattered to numerous to showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms with periods of locally heavy rains across the region until early Friday.

By late Friday and through the weekend, model guidance suggest lingering low level moisture but gradually improving and stable conditions aloft with a much drier airmass. Therefore expect less frequent early morning shower activity across the islands and coastal waters. This will be followed by isolated to scattered showers of short duration during the afternoon hours. Improving conditions are forecast by Sunday and through Tuesday, as the surface high pressure will once again build and spread across the Atlantic, resulting in a more east northeast wind flow by Monday then a more southeasterly on Tuesday.

AVIATION. VFR are conds are expected drg prd. with SHRA/VCSH over PR E terminals and USVI through 21/16Z. SHRA/VCSH are forecast to develop by 21/18Z across terminal sites TJBQ and TJMZ by 21/18Z with clearing by 22/00Z. ESE winds of 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts. Max winds WNW 60 to 90 btwn FL 325 to 460.

MARINE. Mariners can expect choppy and hazardous seas through at least later this evening. Therefore, small craft advisories are in effect for the local waters and passages. The combination of a decaying northerly swell and wind- driven seas will maintain seas of 8 to 10 feet over the offshore Atlantic and 6 to 8 feet over the rest of the local waters and passages until later today. Breaking wave heights between 8 to 10 feet can be expected during the morning hours along the north coastal beaches, then subsiding during the afternoon along with the swell action. Refer to local marine products for additional information. Mariners and beachgoers should continue to take precautionary measures and remain alert during the rest of today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 86 73 87 74 / 20 40 50 20 STT 82 73 81 75 / 40 40 40 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for Mayaguez and Vicinity-Vieques.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for Southwest.

VI . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for St Thomas. St. John . and Adjacent Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for St Croix.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST this morning for Coastal Waters OF Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.



SHORT TERM . TW LONG TERM . RAM PUBLIC DESK . RAM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 2 mi48 min 83°F 77°F1016.3 hPa
41056 10 mi96 min ESE 14 G 18 79°F 80°F5 ft1014.3 hPa (+1.2)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 15 mi54 min 80°F 81°F1016 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 20 mi48 min 83°F 69°F
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 32 mi48 min 1016 hPa
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 38 mi96 min E 16 G 18 80°F 81°F4 ft1014.1 hPa (+0.9)
LAMV3 41 mi48 min 79°F 79°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 42 mi96 min S 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 81°F7 ft1014 hPa (+1.0)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 42 mi111 min N 1.9 74°F 1016 hPa70°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 42 mi48 min 78°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 48 mi54 min 80°F 80°F1015.7 hPa
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 48 mi48 min 80°F 80°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Isabel Segunda, Vieques Island, PR
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Island, Puerto Rico
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
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Tue -- 01:32 AM AST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:02 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:08 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:57 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM AST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:21 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:53 PM AST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:26 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:54 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:12 PM AST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:45 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.60.80.90.80.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.300.20.30.30.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.