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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 954 Pm Ast Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am ast Monday...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tuesday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 954 Pm Ast Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a northeasterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a subtropical high pressure north of the area, will promote hazardous marine conditions through at least Tuesday. An area of low-pressure developing across the central atlantic and the surface high pressure will tighten the local pressure gradient promoting fresh to strong trade winds and hazardous seas across the northeast caribbean from Wednesday onward.

FXCA62 TJSJ 102147 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 547 PM AST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
The interaction between a long-dominant period northerly swells and persistent fresh to strong winds, generated by a strong surface high over the western-central Atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions and life- threatening swimming and rip current conditions throughout the workweek.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most coastal waters, High Surf Advisories are in effect for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico and Culebra through tomorrow morning, and a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the aforementioned beaches as well as the USVI and, through tonight, Vieques and southeastern Puerto Rico. Moisture and associated showers from frontal remnants moving across the area will continue tonight and linger tomorrow.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...

A wet pattern was observed across the islands today. In the early morning, isolated to moderate showers affected northeastern and southeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands sections.
Rainfall accumulations were from one to two inches over the coastal areas. As the day progressed, shower activity diminished, leaving mostly cloudy skies with a few brief light showers.

For the rest of the day into the rest of the period, variable conditions will persist as the remnants of an old frontal boundary continue moving in, dragged by the trade winds. The broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will stay throughout the period, resulting in windy conditions. This moderate to locally fresh east wind flow will permit the entry of patches of shallow moisture from the old front through at least late Monday night.
Although Precipitable water values round in the 1.5 to 1.7 inches, drier air aloft from a mid to upper level ridge will inhibit long- lasting showers. Weather conditions will turn more stable by Tuesday as the high pressure on the surface interacts with a frontal boundary exiting the east seaboard of the United States, resulting in east-northeasterly winds and drier air across the region. The result of the northeasterly winds and the lack of moisture will be mostly pleasant weather conditions with minimal shower activity and slightly colder temperatures.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...
./FROM PREV DISCUSSION Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Dec 10 2023/

Except for variations in the timing of high and low moisture periods, the latest model guidance has yet to introduce significant changes. The most significant rains will result from showers generated by cool advective processes across the local waters and carried by the general steering flow, dominated by east-to-east-northeast trade winds at 15-25 mph and occasionally higher speeds, into windward areas during the forecast period.
These breezy to windy conditions will result from a persistent strong surface high pressure system over the western-central Atlantic, maintaining a tightened local pressure gradient across the Northeastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a dominant mid-level ridge will also persist over the northern Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft and confining moisture to the lower levels, thus suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development.
However, a weak upper-level trough will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the influx of deep moisture into the region by the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend.

In the expected weather scenario, with intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture streaming across the region, variations in moisture levels will be less chaotic. The latest model guidance suggests precipitable water values falling to below-normal thresholds or below 1.2 inches by mid-week, gradually increasing to above-normal levels of about 1.6-1.7 inches on Saturday. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any.
Despite periods of increased shower activity, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should still center around winds- related threats.

AVIATION
VFR conditions will persist most of the time across all the TAF sites. However, MVFR conditions are still possible for lower ceilings and SHRA across TISX, TIST, TJPS & TJSJ until 11/06Z.
Windy conditions will persist with winds from the E at 15 to 20 knots and gusty winds up to 28 knots. WX conditions will improve by 11/18Z as the moisture moves out of the region. Winds will diminish at 11/03Z.

MARINE
Issued at 516 PM AST Sun Dec 10 2023

Current CARICOOS buoy observations near San Juan, Arecibo and Rincon report seas of 7.4 ft, 7.8 ft, and 5.7 ft, respectively, with Arecibo and Rincon reporting a period of 11-12s. The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east- northeast winds, generated by a strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions this week.
The intense subtropical high pressure will hold north of the islands through at least mid-week, at which point it will interact with a cold front moving eastward across the Western Atlantic.
During the next few days, seas will likely reach 8-10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds will peak around 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are currently in place for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of southwestern Puerto Rico. Seas will drop below small craft advisory criteria for some protected coastal waters on Monday, but hazardous seas will continue elsewhere throughout the workweek. For more information and details on current marine risks, refer to the SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU & CWFSPN) and the Marine Weather Message product (MWWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SURF ZONE
Deteriorated marine conditions continue to impact surf zone and beach conditions, producing large breaking waves reaching up to 10-12 feet, occasionally higher. These conditions will likely result in high surf and life- threatening swimming and rip current conditions through tomorrow morning. So far, a Rip Current Statement and a High Surf Advisory are currently in effect for beaches extending from Rincon and Aguada in the west to Fajardo in the northeast, covering the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra.

Also, a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for beaches in southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Moderate rip current risk if forecast for southeastern Puerto Rico and Vieques for tomorrow, while the other aforementioned areas continue with a High Risk through most of the week. For more information and details on current surf zone risks, refer to the SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ003-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ735-742.

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Mayaguez
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Sun -- 04:27 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM AST     1.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:33 PM AST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 PM AST     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Puerto Real
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Sun -- 04:27 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM AST     1.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:28 PM AST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:36 PM AST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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