Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Luis M. Cintr�n, PR

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Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:01PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:48 AM AST (13:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 11:21AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 346 Am Ast Tue Jul 23 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 346 Am Ast Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure north of the area will yield a moderate to fresh easterly wind flow through much of the work week. A tropical wave will continue to move across the area, and cause scattered to isolated showers with isolated Thunderstorms across the local waters through this evening. Then a drier air mass will filter into the area with drier and calmer weather for Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Luis M. Cintrn, PR
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location: 18.32, -65.64     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 230948
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
548 am ast Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
Moisture has moved across the the eastern islands and puerto rico
this morning, and has generated isolated to scattered showers. This
activity is expected to increase later this afternoon with the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across puerto
rico. The moisture is forecast to move west of the area late this
evening into early Wednesday morning. A drier air mass will advect
over the region, and hold through late Wednesday. Then a tropical
wave and its associated moisture will push through the region early
Thursday and linger into midday Friday. Behind the tropical wave
is another mass of saharan dust, which is expected to hover over
the region through Sunday evening. Another tropical wave will
increase the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday
and Tuesday.

Short term Today through Thursday...

high pressure at the surface will persist in the east central
atlantic and extends across to florida and georgia during the period
promoting moderate to fresh trade-winds. High pressure will re-group
into the east central atlantic by Wednesday night. Moisture from the
recent passage of a tropical wave entered the area and spread across
the u.S. Virgin islands and puerto rico overnight. Some heavy
showers did result in northeast puerto rico centered over the
municipality of luquillo. Up to 1 inch fell in spots there. Drier
air enters the eastern edge of the forecast area arnd 23 15z and
over the u.S. Virgin islands and into eastern puerto rico by 23 21z.

Showers will not completely disappear, but should be greatly reduced
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Overnight showers tonight should be
quite limited over eastern puerto rico.

The tutt low north of saint thomas yesterday moved west during the
last 24 hours and is now north of the dominican republic. By early
Thursday, high pressure aloft will extend into the area from the
northeast with the center passing well northeast of the area
dragging a weak ridge through the area. After the ridge moves away
toward the west northwest, an upper low will approach the area from
the western tropical atlantic and underneath this is a pool of air
with much colder 500 mb temperatures that will begin to be felt late
Thursday and into the long term period.

The next tropical wave is a little sharper and carries another surge
of moisture behind it. That moisture will reach the u.S. Virgin
islands Thursday afternoon and puerto rico late Thursday afternoon
and evening. This wave however is also showing signs of moisture
just ahead of the axis and so showers and thunderstorms are expected
to increase during the day on Thursday.

Saharan dust is another factor that will need to be considered in
the short term forecast. Some of the models have an increase in dust
beginning this afternoon and thinning out early Thursday. Today this
may be counter-indicated by the moisture band moving in now, however
dust and drier air will be seen on Wednesday in the area. On
Thursday some additional moisture could work against the dust.

Long term... Friday through Wednesday...

the long-term period will be defined by passing tropical waves and
dry saharan air. The first tropical wave and its associated
moisture is forecast to move across the puerto rico late Thursday
night into early Friday morning. However, the moisture quickly
moves west of the area by Friday afternoon. Therefore, an
increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for
Thursday evening into Friday afternoon across many areas of puerto
rico. Behind the tropical wave, dry saharan air will rapidly
advect into the region Friday and hold through the weekend. The
dry saharan air and the drier air in the mid to upper-levels of
the atmosphere will limit the development of showers and keep
thunderstorms isolated during the afternoon across eastern puerto.

However, local effects combined with significant heating and sea
breeze convergence will cause development of some showers and
isolated thunderstorms in western puerto rico during the
afternoon. This pattern will be repeated Saturday.

The saharan dust begins to wane by Sunday afternoon, as a patch
of moisture embedded in the easterly trades move across the
adjacent islands and puerto rico. This will lead to an uptick in
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Monday afternoon
into early Tuesday morning a tropical wave and its associated
moisture is progged to move into the caribbean waters, and slowly
moves across the adjacent islands and puerto rico through Tuesday.

For this reason expect scattered to isolated thunderstorms early
Tuesday morning and through the afternoon. Then on Wednesday
another round of dry saharan air will filter into the region late
Tuesday night until Wednesday morning to close out the month.

Guidance continues to show upper-level conditions becoming more
favorable for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Friday and Saturday, as a result of a tutt low that will
retrograde across the puerto rico. Also, an increase in upper-
level divergence will enhance upper-level instability across
portions of western and interior areas of puerto rico. However,
one caveat that could limit the development of widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms, is the dry air that is expected in the
mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, accompanying
the drier air will be saharan dust which, will also limit the
vertical development of showers during the afternoon.

Still with the drier air in place 500 mb temperatures are
forecast to range from -10 to -12 celsius. This will be monitored
over the next several days to see if guidance still shows this
solution on Thursday.

Aviation An area of moisture from the leeward islands to west
central pr is movg west. Shra will dvlp in pr by 23 14z and spread
to much of pr by 23 17z with tsra dvlpg. Expect areas of MVFR ifr
and mtn obscurations, tjmz tjbq are the main TAF sites affected
although tjps and tjsj may have vcts. Drier air is moving into the
leeward islands. Shra tsra to slowly dsipt aft 23 21z. Sfc winds ese
12-18 kt with sea breezes. MAX winds ese 15-20 kt blo fl120 and E 20
kt at fl540.

Marine
Seas will range from 3 to 5 feet across the local and offshore
through Thursday. Winds will be out of the east to southeast at 15
to 20 kts with higher gusts possible. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the local and
offshore waters today. Small craft operators are urged to
exercise caution across the the local and offshore waters this
afternoon. A moderate risk of rip currents for most of the local
beaches of puerto rico today except for the western and eastern
beaches of the island.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 90 79 90 79 30 20 20 60
stt 89 79 91 79 30 20 20 40

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ws
long term... .Tw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41056 10 mi48 min E 14 G 16 84°F 84°F1017.2 hPa (+1.4)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 18 mi48 min 87°F 85°F1018.2 hPa (+1.2)
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 18 mi48 min ESE 9.9 G 15 86°F 83°F1018.3 hPa (+1.2)
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 21 mi48 min 88°F 77°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 27 mi48 min E 14 G 16 84°F 83°F4 ft1017.3 hPa (+1.5)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 27 mi48 min E 13 G 16 84°F 83°F1018.2 hPa (+1.3)
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 38 mi48 min 86°F 1017.8 hPa (+1.2)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 40 mi63 min E 6 87°F 1019 hPa76°F
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 47 mi48 min E 14 G 16 85°F 84°F4 ft1016.8 hPa (+1.5)
LAMV3 49 mi48 min 84°F 84°F

Wind History for Fajardo, PR
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Fajardo
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Tue -- 12:46 AM AST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM AST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 AM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:35 PM AST     1.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:15 PM AST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:37 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.31.10.80.60.40.30.30.50.70.911.11.11.10.90.70.60.50.60.70.81

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
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Tue -- 12:28 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:11 AM AST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:47 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:57 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM AST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:20 AM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:36 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:52 PM AST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:59 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:15 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:15 PM AST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:36 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.30.40.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.40.60.60.60.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.