Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Luis M. Cintr�n, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:03PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 9:59 PM AST (01:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:37AMMoonset 2:39PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 937 Pm Ast Wed Jul 15 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the night. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 937 Pm Ast Wed Jul 15 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure north of the region will maintain moderate easterly winds tonight. Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue. Passing showers are expected across the local waters tonight with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Luis M. Cintrn, PR
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location: 18.32, -65.64     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 160142 AAA AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 942 PM AST Wed Jul 15 2020

UPDATE. Sounding added moisture at nearly all levels to top off with 1.77 inches of precipitable water at 16/00Z. Lifted index remains only modestly unstable, at minus 4, however strong convection has produced heavy showers in southwest Puerto Rico, but without lighting in the last several hours, despite tops reaching 44 kft at 16/0055Z. Showers continue to move offshore of Lajas and heavy showers appear to be limited to the local waters and spots north of the Cordillera central. For now showers are expected to continue increasing in the northern part of the island and around Saint Thomas. The dry slot that was rather prominent in both the TPW and the GFS no longer appears as strong, and may be closing in with moisture. This would make the original GFS (15/12Z) somewhat weak in its treatment of shower activity with this wave. Have made some very minor adjustments to the afternoon package in the first 6 hours of the forecast, but still expect much of eastern Puerto Rico the U.S. Virgin islands to have at least some showers. So far, onshore amounts have been limited to less than one quarter inch, with a few pixels of one half inch in streaks as the showers move across the island.

With low pressure aloft moving over the forecast area would normally expect good thunderstorm activity, but 500 mb temperatures remain mild with only a slight dip later tonight, so although thunderstorms are still possible there should not be very many.

AVIATION. Brief periods of MVFR expected as sct SHRA move thru TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. SHRA still streaming across the Windward islands and will brush by TNCM/TKPK. Some mtn obscurations expected thru 16/22Z. Sfc winds ENE 10 kt or less with some hir gusts bcmg SE aft 16/09-14Z from east to west with trop wave psg. Maximum winds less than 25 kt blo FL540. Winds E-SE blo FL250 and S-SW abv FL250.

MARINE. No changes to previous discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 422 PM AST Wed Jul 15 2020/

SYNOPSIS . An upper-level low is expected to move over the area today and west of area tonight and linger just north of La Hispanola through the upcoming weekend. This feature combined with sufficient low-level moisture will result in enhanced afternoon convection across the western half of Puerto Rico through at least Friday. More widespread activity is possible Sunday into Monday as deeper moisture moves over the area. Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue through the week.

SHORT TERM . Tonight through Friday .

Shower and thunderstorm activity across the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico will linger through the early evening hours before dissipating. Localized urban and small stream flooding is possible with the heaviest activity. During the overnight hours, an increase in scattered shower activity is expected across the regional waters, with some of the activity affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico and in and around the USVI as an upper-level low moves just west of the area and a surface induced trough moves across the USVI and eastern Puerto Rico.

As this surface trough moves west of the area Thursday morning, the low-level flow is expected to switch to the east-southeast. Therefore, afternoon convection both Thursday and Friday will be focused across northwestern Puerto Rico. Additional shower activity in the form of streamers is also possible downwind of El Yunque affecting portions of the San Juan metro area as well downwind of the other islands. With the upper-level low being positioned west of the area, conditions are expected to be favorable for enhanced convection across northwestern Puerto Rico. Therefore, heavy rainfall activity that may result in localized urban and small stream flooding is possible.

LONG TERM . Saturday through Wednesday .

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 512 AM AST Wed Jul 15 2020/

Although model guidance continues to suggest that a relatively wet and unstable weather pattern will dominate of the long- term forecast period, drier air will support fair weather conditions with limited shower activity on Saturday. Favorable conditions aloft and enhanced low-level moisture convergence will elevate the potential for shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday evening and continuing through midweek with the passage of an easterly disturbance through the weekend, followed by a surface induced trough during the first part of next week. So far, the best chance for organized convection in the long-term is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon with model- estimated precipitable water peaking at 2.0-2.2 inches and 500 mbar temperatures ranging between -5 and -7 degrees Celsius.

AVIATION . VFR conds expected today. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA across SW-PR this afternoon, TJPS may observe VCTS after 15/18Z, passing SHRA across the local area may cause VCSH at the local terminals. ENE winds today at around 15KT with sea breeze variations, decreasing to 10KT or less after 16/00Z. SHRA and ISOL TSRA across the general area overnight may cause VCSH/VCTS at the local terminals. TSRA across NW-PR after 16/17Z will cause VCTS at TJBQ, possibly even affecting the site, causing MVFR conds.

MARINE . Mainly tranquil marine conditions with seas between 2 and 5 feet expected. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra as well as the eastern most beaches of Vieques and Culebra.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 79 89 79 90 / 60 60 30 40 STT 79 88 79 88 / 50 30 30 30

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . LIS PUBLIC DESK . LIS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41056 10 mi60 min ENE 12 G 16 83°F 85°F3 ft1013.8 hPa (+1.3)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 18 mi90 min 86°F
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 18 mi90 min 85°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 27 mi60 min E 14 G 18 84°F 84°F1013.7 hPa (+0.9)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 27 mi90 min 86°F
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 40 mi75 min NE 2.9 82°F 1016 hPa73°F
LAMV3 49 mi90 min 85°F

Wind History for Fajardo, PR
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Fajardo
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Wed -- 01:35 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:29 AM AST     0.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM AST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:39 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:30 PM AST     1.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:55 PM AST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.90.90.90.80.70.50.20.100.10.20.50.81.11.31.41.41.31.10.90.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
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Wed -- 01:02 AM AST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:36 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:55 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM AST     0.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:15 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:25 PM AST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:39 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:09 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:55 PM AST     0.72 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:01 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:23 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.20.20-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.20.50.70.70.60.40.1-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.