Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fajardo, PR

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 6:48PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:04 PM AST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1011 Am Ast Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 1011 Am Ast Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure centered across the north central atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh east winds across the local waters. Tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave will continue to move across the area, increasing the potential for showers and Thunderstorm development through at least Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fajardo, PR
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location: 18.33, -65.63     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 191404
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1004 am ast Mon aug 19 2019

Update
No changes were made to the inherited forecast. A tropical wave
will continue to move across the region today, resulting in
shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest visible satellite
imagery shows areas of clearing over sections of the main island
of puerto rico, which should allow for diurnal heating to occur.

In addition, the potential for urban and small stream flooding and
mudslides in areas of steep terrain is higher today due to the
previous rainfall accumulation, especially across the interior and
northwestern puerto rico. Additional activity is also possible
across the san juan metro area.

Aviation
Vcts are expected tjsj tjps tist tisx through most of the
forecast period. Tempo due to thunderstorms activity is expected
this afternoon for tjsj tjmz tjbq, which could result in MVFR and
brief ifr conditions. Vcsh are expected for tncm tkpk for the rest
of the day.

Marine
Seas between two to five feet are expected to continue with winds
out of the east at 10 to 15 knots. Marine conditions will become
hazardous quickly in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms. There
is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern, southwestern
and southeastern coast of puerto rico, as well as for some beaches
along vieques, culebra, and st. Croix in the u.S. Virgin islands.

Prev discussion issued 512 am ast Mon aug 19 2019
synopsis... A departing tropical wave and associated plume of
moisture will continue to affect the local islands and waters
through at least Tuesday, resulting in a higher potential for
shower and thunderstorms activity and a threat for urban and small
stream flooding. Relatively tranquil conditions with the potential
for locally induced showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday through Friday. An elongated area of low-level
moisture ahead of wind surge and a passing tropical wave are
expected to increase the potential for shower and thunderstorm
activity on Friday into Saturday and Monday, respectively.

Short term... Today through Wednesday...

for today, model guidance continues to suggest a wet and unstable
weather pattern with high precipitable water content over the region
but particularly over the eastern half of the forecast area and
across the regional waters. This will result in flooding rains
across the usvi and eastern sections of pr. The interior and western
sections of pr should receive similar rainfall amounts during the
afternoon due to the presence of mid to upper level clouds. However,
if skies clear somewhat and allow for daytime heating, higher
rainfall amounts are possible with any afternoon convection over
western pr. Due to saturated soils from yesterday's rainfall, flash
flooding as well as mudslides can not be ruled out with any heavy
showers.

On Tuesday, guidance has shown a downward trend of the lingering
tropical moisture and the ECMWF for example brings drier air at
700mb overnight, while the GFS keeps the drier air at this level
south of the forecast area during the same time. Both models agree
on a wind shift from the northeast and the best moisture north of
the region through Tuesday evening. Having said that, modified
previous forecast to keep the best chances of rain along the
cordillera central and west southwest pr in possible strong diurnal
afternoon convection. By Wednesday, a drier air mass will promote
more stable conditions across the region and shower activity will be
confined to the west coast of pr.

Long term... Thursday through Monday...

a migrating surface high pressure moving westward across the
north central atlantic will maintain a moderate to locally fresh
east to southeast wind flow across the region. Relatively tranquil
weather conditions are forecast on Thursday and continuing through
Friday evening. However, patches of low-level moisture will bring showers
to the us virgin islands and puerto rico during the overnight and
early morning hours. Then, lingering moisture supported by
diurnal heating and local effects will trigger locally induced
showers and thunderstorms along the interior and over portions of
northwestern puerto rico each afternoon. By late Friday night
through Sunday morning, a wind surge ahead of a tropical wave and
south of a developing surface high will transport an elongated
area of low-level moisture across the region, increasing the
potential for shower and thunderstorm activity. Weather conditions
are to briefly improve Sunday through Monday, but moisture
advection from a passing tropical wave will once again increase
the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity by Monday
afternoon.

Aviation... Tempo MVFR conditions are expected through the day across
tist tisx tjsj tjbq tjmz due to shra tsra. Vcts vcsh is expected
across the rest of the terminals. Mtn tops obscd across east pr
through much of the forecast period and over the interior and west
pr during the afternoon hours. Tempo ifr conds are possible at
tjmz tjbq btw 17z-21z. Winds are expected to prevail from the east-
southeast at 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations after 14z.

Marine... Tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 5 feet and
east winds up to 15 knots are expected across the regional waters
today. A tropical wave will continue to move across the area,
increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorm development
through at least Tuesday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
for beaches along the north and south coast of puerto rico, as
well as culebrita in culebra and cramer park in saint croix. A low
risk of rip currents will prevail elsewhere.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 87 79 87 78 50 50 40 30
stt 88 79 88 78 70 60 60 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Erg
long term... .Cam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 17 mi53 min 91°F 86°F1018 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 18 mi47 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 82°F 85°F1018.3 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 22 mi47 min 88°F 76°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 27 mi47 min ENE 8.9 G 12 84°F 85°F1017.9 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 38 mi53 min 86°F 1017.7 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 41 mi80 min ENE 4.1 92°F 1019 hPa76°F
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 46 mi35 min E 9.7 G 14 84°F 1016.4 hPa
LAMV3 48 mi47 min 85°F 85°F

Wind History for Fajardo, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR21 mi2.1 hrsE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F78°F80%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13NE19
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E18E10E5E9E7E10--------E7E4--CalmE5E4E6E11SE6
1 day agoSE4E4E6E10W5E5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SE3--CalmSE3CalmSE4E11E15E14
2 days agoNE12
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E8E14E9NE9--NE9--E8SE4CalmSE6
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S3Calm3E9E11NE16

Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Fajardo
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Mon -- 05:20 AM AST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:16 AM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:21 AM AST     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM AST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:36 PM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:31 PM AST     1.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.310.80.60.50.50.60.811.21.31.31.210.80.60.50.50.70.91.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:17 AM AST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:05 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:05 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM AST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:16 AM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:48 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:53 PM AST     0.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:05 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:46 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:05 PM AST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:36 PM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:14 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.50.30-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.40.60.60.50.30-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.