Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fajardo, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 7:05 PM AST (23:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:10AMMoonset 1:22PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 358 Pm Ast Wed Aug 12 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 358 Pm Ast Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across the regional waters through the end of the work week, resulting in choppy seas. A tropical wave will linger across the area through tonight, resulting in areas of showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tropical depression eleven is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight and is still forecast to track north of the region over the weekend. This could result in hazardous marine conditions, mainly across the offshore atlantic waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fajardo, PR
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location: 18.33, -65.63     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 122043 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 443 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A tropical wave currently over the area will move away tonight, with much drier air expected to move in with fair weather conditions expected. This relatively dry air mass will prevail across the area through the end of the work week, therefore, shower activity will be limited. Tropical Depression Eleven, forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight, is still forecast to pass north of the area during the weekend with no direct impacts expected at this time.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Friday .

The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave will continue to linger across portions of western Puerto Rico through the early evening hours before dissipating completely. As the tropical wave exits the area tonight, a much drier air mass will move in. Therefore, fair weather conditions are expected. This relatively dry air mass is expected to prevail through the end of the work week, resulting in limited shower activity. However, patches of low-level moisture will move over the area from time to time, which could cause some passing showers to develop across the regional waters and affect portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the overnight and morning hours followed by the development of some afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 429 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020/

LONG TERM. Saturday through Thursday .

The forecast for Saturday, and, indeed, the rest of the weekend and into Monday, is quite dependent on the development and trajectory of Tropical Depression Eleven. Should the system strengthen, as is presently expected, it would be likely to pull northward, away from another tropical wave, as it nears the Caribbean. In this scenario, a dry slot forms between the tropical cyclone and the wave. That being said, there does remain some uncertainty, as we are still several days out. A shift in the strength or trajectory would shift the timing and location of any possible dry slot. A less likely scenario involves the system not strengthening, or being short-lived. This has the potential to lead to more moisture being brought through the area. While this currently does not look likely, it cannot be fully ruled out. Either way, it does look to be a fairly rainy weekend, increasingly so as we move into Sunday. Widespread showers are likely by Sunday, with isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms. Conditions aloft are expected to be more favorable for convective activity, but not very favorable. This will still help contribute to the afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though.

Moisture will remain in the area for Monday, when there will likely be a continuation of Sunday, though slightly weaker in terms of activity. Dynamic forcing aloft remains relatively weak, and its influence will wane somewhat. Decreasing moisture is expected during the evening and into the night. And by Tuesday, conditions aloft will become decreasingly favorable for convection, with drying forecast for the mid-levels. A large, but weak, developing disturbance will help bring additional moisture into the area on Tuesday into Wednesday; moisture levels will be near-normal levels, climatologically speaking. A typical pattern of afternoon showers in the west and passing showers overnight and into the morning in the east will prevail through midweek. Further drying is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, which will act to inhibit some of the typical shower activity across the local islands.

AVIATION. Tropical wave moving across the region will continue to bring SHRA/TSRA to the local flying area at least til 12/23Z. This will cause VCSH/VCTS in and around the islands as well as ovr the local flying area SCT-BKN lyrs nr FL025. FL050 . FL100 til 13/00Z. Brief MVFR psbl at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ and en route between islands with SHRA/Isold TSRA. Sfc wnds fm E-SE 10-15 kts with ocnl hir gust with SHRA/Isold TSRA. Wnds bcmg fm ESE 10 kts or less aft 12/23Z.

MARINE. Moderate to fresh easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots will continue to result in seas of between 3 and 6 feet across the regional waters, with the highest seas expected across the offshore waters. Tropical Depression Eleven, currently located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, is forecast to move north of the local area during the upcoming weekend. This could generate some hazardous seas, mainly across the offshore Atlantic waters. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for several of the local beaches of the islands, except across the western coast of Puerto Rico, through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 80 90 80 89 / 40 20 20 40 STT 81 90 80 91 / 40 20 20 40

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . DSR LONG TERM . GL PUBLIC DESK . LIS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41056 10 mi125 min E 14 G 16 85°F 85°F3 ft1012.7 hPa (-0.0)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 17 mi47 min 85°F 87°F1013.7 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 18 mi47 min E 8.9 G 12 85°F1014 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 27 mi125 min ENE 12 G 14 84°F 84°F3 ft1012.7 hPa (-0.5)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 27 mi47 min E 12 G 14 84°F 85°F1014 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 38 mi47 min 86°F 1014.1 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 41 mi80 min E 8.9 87°F 1014 hPa77°F
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 46 mi65 min ENE 3.9 G 7.8 89°F 89°F1012.4 hPa (+0.3)
LAMV3 48 mi47 min 84°F 86°F

Wind History for Fajardo, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR21 mi69 minSE 59.00 miLight Rain84°F81°F91%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E12E11E6E7E6E9E12E13E8E12E8E8NE5S4NE13NE8E10E12E14E9E6E11SE5
1 day agoE10E7E6E8SE4SE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E4E9E9NE14NE15
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2 days agoNE10E11E14E10NE10E8E8E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E9E11E13NE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Fajardo
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Wed -- 12:10 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:54 AM AST     1.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM AST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:21 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:53 PM AST     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:15 PM AST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91110.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.50.81.11.31.41.51.41.31.10.90.80.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:10 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:12 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:25 AM AST     0.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:03 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:43 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:55 AM AST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:21 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:43 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 PM AST     0.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.10.20.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.30.60.70.70.50.3-0-0.3-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.