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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1022 Am Ast Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 1022 Am Ast Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A broad surface high pressure building over the western atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters for the rest of today. Increasing winds and northerly swells will maintain choppy to hazardous seas for small craft, mainly across the local offshore waters and passages for the rest of the weekend.

FXCA62 TJSJ 020818 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 418 AM AST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh easterly winds today. An increased moisture from an old frontal boundary will move in late today, increasing the potential for shower activity across the region.
Hazardous marine conditions will persist for the rest of the weekend, with seas up to 7 feet. Regardless of the stable weather conditions and periods of no rain with clear skies, fragmented moisture will result in occasional periods of clouds and showers.

SHORT TERM
Today through Monday...

Mostly clear skies with little to no rain prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight. The thermometers reported the coastal low temperatures in the mid-70s degrees Fahrenheit and around the low 60s near mountains and valleys.
Surface winds were mainly from the east-northeast at 10 mph or less.

An advective pattern will dominate the short-term period associated with the surface high pressure across the Atlantic Ocean. Although we expect plenty of periods of sunshine, the trade winds will bring occasional passing showers, mainly across the windward sections in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Limited afternoon convection could occur along the Cordillera Central and over the southwest quadrant today. The surface high pressure will push the remnants of an old frontal boundary across the islands, increasing the frequency of the passing showers late this afternoon into the evening and early Sunday morning.

A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) will amplify from the Central Atlantic into the eastern Lesser Antilles, pushing the mid- high pressure eastward into the Western Caribbean and weakening the upper-level ridge. Meanwhile, at the surface, the local effects and sea breeze variations will promote the formation of afternoon convection across the interior and southwest PR on Sunday, giving place to ponding in periods of moderate to heavy rain.

The TUTT mentioned above will induce surface perturbations that winds will advect into the region by Monday, creating the typical December advective weather pattern across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The amount of rain will be tied to the arrival of patches embedded in the winds that may move inland. We forecast that temperatures will range around the December-typical values for our region.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...

A seasonal weather pattern will persist for most of the long term. Model guidance continues to suggest the development of a Tropospheric Upper-Level Trough just east of the Leeward Islands by the beginning of the upcoming workweek. Although the islands will remain on the subsidence side of the TUTT, a weak induced surface trough from the TUTT above will result in trapped moisture at 800 mb. The shallow moisture embedded in the east- southeasterly winds and the local effects will be enough to increase the frequency of the passing showers across windward sections on Tuesday into Thursday. By late Wednesday into Thursday, the high surface pressure over the central Atlantic will be the main feature, resulting in east-southeast wind, bringing pulses of moisture. Global model guidance suggests a surface wind variation due to the arrival of a pre-frontal trough moving southward into the Caribbean for the last part of the long-term period.

AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail today. Expect calm to light and variable winds til 02/13z. Then, winds will be mainly from the E-ENE at 10-15 kt with stronger gusts mainly due to sea breeze variations. The wind flow sometimes brings passing showers and may produce localized brief lower visibilities. Clouds and mountain obscuration could develop along the interior and southwest PR by the afternoon. The frequency of SHRA will increase near JSJ/IST/ISX after 02/21z.

MARINE

A broad surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh easterly winds across the regional waters. The combination of a northerly swell and the increasing winds and northerly swells will maintain choppy to hazardous seas across the offshore waters and local passages through at least Sunday. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters from 8 AM AST today though at least 8 AM on Sunday. Conditions will remain slightly hazardous on Monday morning. For beachgoers, there is a high risk of rip currents across the northern sections of Puerto Rico and Culebra on Sunday morning.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM AST Sunday for AMZ711.

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Boca De Cangrejos
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Sat -- 05:58 AM AST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:12 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:23 PM AST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:14 PM AST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:35 PM AST     Moonrise
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Boca De Cangrejos, Isla Verde, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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