Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 5:58PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:25 AM AST (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:06PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 922 Pm Ast Sun Oct 20 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. North swell around 4 feet after midnight. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. North swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. North swell around 4 feet in the evening. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered showers through the day.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 922 Pm Ast Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Shower activity has quieted down this evening after widespread rain across mostly western puerto rico and offshore waters. A few isolated showers are possible across local waters during the nighttime. Winds will continue out of the east, generally below 15 knots. Wave heights will stay below 5 feet for the next few days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina, PR
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location: 18.46, -65.99     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 210339 cca
afdsju
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service san juan pr
1139 pm ast Sun oct 20 2019

Update Minor changes were introduced to the forecast package
to match current weather conditions. A seasonal weather pattern will
continue to prevail with trade wind showers across windward areas
at times as well as locally induced afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across the interior and west sections of puerto rico
each afternoon. The chance for shower and thunderstorm activity
may increase by mid week as trofiness develops across the area.

Aviation Vfr conds likely to prevail at all TAF sites overnight
with vcsh possible in and around the usvi and leeward TAF sites
as well as tjsj. After 21 16z vcsh vcts likely in and around
tjmz through 21 22z.

Marine Seas below 5 feet and winds 10 to 15 knots to continue
overnight. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along the
north facing beaches of the local islands during the next few
days. No SCA criteria are anticipated this week.

Prev discussion issued 131 pm ast Sun oct 20 2019
synopsis...

streamers have developed downwind of the major islands east of
mainland puerto rico. In western and southwestern puerto rico,
shower activity is increasing, and is expected to continue to do
so. Isolated thunderstorms and an associated risk of urban and
small stream flooding are also possible during the afternoon
hours, mainly over western and interior puerto rico. Moisture
levels are anticipated to remain near seasonally normal levels
through the early part of the week, as occasional patches of
moisture embedded in the trade winds make their way through the
region, and winds will be generally out of the east east-
northeast.

Short term... Today through Tuesday...

winds are generally out of the east east-northeast this afternoon,
and are forecast to continue out of that direction into the work
week under the influence of a ridge to the northwest of the
islands. Moisture in the region is expected to decrease slightly
as drier mid-level air filters into the area. This will limit the
intensity and coverage of rainfall activity, though there will
remain near-normal levels of moisture in the lower levels. During
the afternoon, there will be sufficient moisture to combine with
local effects and diurnal heating to cause scattered showers with
the potential for isolated thunderstorms, especially in western
and interior portions of puerto rico. Elsewhere, streamers have
developed downwind of the u.S. Virgin islands, vieques, and
culebra, as well as EL yunque.

Patches of moisture in the trade winds at lower levels will bring
a continuation of today's pattern for tomorrow. Afternoon shower
and convective activity are expected, with the area of greatest
development over southwestern puerto rico. On Tuesday, an upper-
level low will slowly make its way from north of the local islands
to between puerto rico and hispaniola. As it moves to the west of
the island, it will likely serve to enhance instability over the
islands. Due to this, there is a chance of locally heavy rainfall
with the afternoon shower and convective activity on Tuesday,
especially in western and southwestern puerto rico.

Long term... Wednesday through Sunday... From prev discussion...

as both a tutt low and an induced surface trough moves across the
region through Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to deepen
and become a cutoff low as it relocates southwest between puerto
rico and hispaniola. The surface trough is also expected to cross
the islands and increase low level moisture transport and convergence
while bringing unstable conditions to the area. This expected scenario
should maintain a fairly moist and unstable airmass across the region,
resulting in an unsettled weather pattern with good potential for
enhanced morning showers and afternoon convection.

By Thursday, the surface trough is forecast to move farther west
of the region while the weakening tutt low is to meander south of
hispaniola and the mona passage. This should still provide sufficient
ventilation and marginal instability aloft to support some enhanced
afternoon convection in isolated areas. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should however not be as widespread as on Wednesday. Any
afternoon convection should be focused mainly over the northwest
and the central interior sections of puerto rico, as the steering
winds become more east-southeast. Isolated to scattered afternoon
showers will remain possible around the usvi and parts of the san
juan metro each day through the end of the work week. Winds will
become more east northeast by late Friday and through the weekend
with the approach of a weak tropical wave. Recent model guidance
continued to suggest that most of the associated moisture and
instability should remain mainly south of the islands. However,
early morning passing showers and isolated to scattered afternoon
convection can still be expected across the region due to low
level moisture transport and localized convergence.

Aviation...

mainlyVFR conditions expected to prevail across all
terminals during the next 24 hours. However, shra tsra through 22z
over west pr may cause tempo MVFR at tjmz and vcsh vcts at
tjbq tjps. Low level winds will continue from the ene at 10-18 kts,
becoming light and variable overnight. Trade wind shra could briefly
cause -ra vcsh across the usvi terminals and tjsj through Monday
morning.

Marine...

the trend of relatively tranquil seas will continue, with wave
heights less than 5 feet, into this week. Winds out of the east or
east-northeast are also expected to persist, at around 10 to 15
knots. There remains a low to moderate risk of rip current at
north-facing beaches on all local islands today through the next
couple of days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 79 88 77 88 50 30 40 40
stt 79 88 78 87 50 40 40 50

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Update... Om
aviation... .Om


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41053 - San Juan, PR 6 mi85 min NE 9.7 G 12 84°F 85°F4 ft1012.8 hPa (-2.0)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 7 mi55 min NW 1.9 G 8 81°F 86°F1013.6 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 29 mi55 min 78°F 75°F
41056 31 mi85 min E 5.8 G 12 81°F 85°F3 ft1012.5 hPa (-1.7)
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 37 mi55 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 85°F1013.6 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 37 mi100 min NNE 1.9 78°F 1015 hPa72°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 38 mi55 min S 2.9 G 4.1
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 38 mi55 min 82°F 87°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for San Juan, PR
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Boca De Cangrejos, Isla Verde, San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Boca De Cangrejos
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Mon -- 01:36 AM AST     0.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM AST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:41 AM AST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:06 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM AST     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM AST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.50.40.20.10.10.10.30.50.811.21.31.41.31.10.90.70.60.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.