Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:27PM Thursday February 20, 2020 2:47 PM AST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:43AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1007 Am Ast Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers through the day.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. North swell 4 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. North swell 4 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 1007 Am Ast Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Surface high pressure spread across the central and northeastern atlantic will continue to yield moderate to fresh trade winds through early Friday. This will result in persisting choppy and hazardous seas across the regional waters. Marine conditions will slowly improve throughout the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina, PR
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location: 18.46, -65.99     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 201629 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1229 PM AST Thu Feb 20 2020

UPDATE. Hazy skies due to the arrival of dry air with suspended Saharan air particles will continue the rest of today. No significant shower activity is expected this afternoon and overnight.

AVIATION. Expect hazy skies with limited shower activity through the forecast period. Visibilities will ranged btwn 5-9 SM. SHRA will develop across W/E-PR btwn 20/18-22z. Winds will continue from the E at 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kt. Winds will drop around 10 knots after 20/23z.

MARINE. Choppy seas will continue between 5 and 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Mariners can expect seas between 15 and 20 knots with higher gusts. Marine conditions will slowly improve throughout the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 549 AM AST Thu Feb 20 2020/

SYNOPSIS .

Persisting surface high pressure to the north over the eastern Atlantic is promoting continuing moderate to fresh trade winds today. Patches of moisture are expected to stream across the area embedded in these trade winds, aiding in the development of afternoon showers, as well as some passing showers during the morning and overnight hours. Decreasing winds and moisture are forecast for Friday into the weekend, while Saharan dust will likely see hazy skies over the area. Increasing moisture is anticipated for the start of next week as a cold front approaches the area, leading to a more active weather pattern.

SHORT TERM . Today through Saturday .

A broad surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds today. Areas of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds will reach the islands from time to time through the short term period. This will be enough to trigger diurnally induced afternoon showers over portions of the interior and west PR as well as from streamers developing off the USVI. However, the overall moisture content decreases from 1.30 inches early this morning to just under an inch of precipitable water during the next couple of days. This is due to drier air moving in from the east with Saharan dust. Although not a strong SAL event, hazy skies are expected. Winds will gradually decrease on Friday and Saturday, and turn more from the southeast as an area of low pressure develops over the western Atlantic and an associated frontal boundary stalls to the north of the region during the weekend.

LONG TERM . Sunday through Friday .

By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest. This front will likely not pass completely over the region, stalling near the northwest of Puerto Rico. The central- Atlantic ridge ahead of this frontal system is expected to continue to pull away from the region to the northwest. These factors will combine to continue the relatively light winds lasting into Monday at least. Moisture associated with the aforementioned front will push over the local islands starting late Sunday. Meanwhile, the remnants of an old frontal boundary embedded in the trade winds will also be making their way westward towards the area. The combination of factors is also likely to lead to moisture convergence early in the week, and this is when the highest rainfall amounts are likely. Associated with these two boundaries, moisture levels at or above seasonal normals are expected to persist into the end of the work week next week. Therefore, shower activity is likely to be near or above normal levels for February through the week. However, conditions aloft are likely to be generally stable, with ridging seen at both the mid- and upper-levels by late Monday; the 500 hPa temperatures support this conclusion, generally staying warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year through out the long term period. As such, convection is unlikely, and rainfall totals are not likely to be spectacular. Late in the week, late Thursday into Friday, a trend towards drying conditions is anticipated. Though the 0Z run of the GFS has slowed this drying trend somewhat compared to previous runs, the trend does remain, and still seems likely; as such, it is reflected in the forecast.

AVIATION .

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, diurnally induced afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico could cause brief MVFR conds at TJMZ. HZ due to Saharan dust is expected but vsby should remain P6SM. Sfc winds increasing 15-20 kt from the east with higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 14z.

MARINE .

Moderate to fresh trade winds continue to impact the area. This will support persisting choppy and hazardous seas, with heights up to 7 feet across much of the regional waters. Winds, and therefore seas, will begin to subside somewhat tonight into tomorrow. Conditions are expected to improve enough to no longer meet small craft advisory criteria by early tomorrow morning, except in the outer Atlantic waters, where hazardous conditions are forecast into the afternoon. Relatively tranquil conditions are then expected as we make our way into the weekend. However, another northerly swell is anticipated for Sunday, and will bring a return of hazardous marine conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 86 73 85 72 / 50 20 20 20 STT 84 72 82 71 / 30 30 30 20

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for North Central- Northwest.

VI . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Friday for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.



SHORT TERM . CAM PUBLIC DESK . LIS LONG TERM . GL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41053 - San Juan, PR 6 mi48 min E 16 G 19 80°F 80°F5 ft1014.9 hPa (-2.8)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 7 mi48 min 80°F 81°F1016.1 hPa (-2.9)
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 29 mi48 min 84°F 67°F
41056 31 mi48 min E 16 G 19 80°F 80°F5 ft1015 hPa (-2.8)
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 37 mi48 min 85°F 80°F1016.2 hPa (-2.8)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 37 mi63 min E 9.9 85°F 1017 hPa66°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 38 mi60 min NE 16 G 25
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 38 mi48 min 85°F 81°F1016.1 hPa (-2.8)

Wind History for San Juan, PR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Boca De Cangrejos, Isla Verde, San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Boca De Cangrejos
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM AST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:43 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:55 AM AST     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM AST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:26 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:57 PM AST     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.10.10.30.60.91.21.41.51.41.210.80.60.50.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.